Providing therapies tailored to each patient is the vision of precision medicine, enabled by the increasing ability to capture extensive data about individual patients. In this position paper, we argue that the second enabling pillar towards this vision is the increasing power of computers and algorithms to learn, reason, and build the ‘digital twin’ of a patient. Computational models are boosting the capacity to draw diagnosis and prognosis, and future treatments will be tailored not only to current health status and data, but also to an accurate projection of the pathways to restore health by model predictions. The early steps of the digital twin in the area of cardiovascular medicine are reviewed in this article, together with a discussion of the challenges and opportunities ahead. We emphasize the synergies between mechanistic and statistical models in accelerating cardiovascular research and enabling the vision of precision medicine.

Background—: Incidence and prevalence rates for pediatric pulmonary hypertension (PH) and pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) are unknown. This study describes the nationwide epidemiological features of pediatric PH in the Netherlands during a 15-year period and the clinical course of pediatric PAH. Methods and Results—: Two registries were used to retrospectively identify children (0–17 years) with PH. Overall, 3263 pediatric patients were identified with PH due to left heart disease (n=160; 5%), lung disease/hypoxemia (n=253; 8%), thromboembolic disease (n=5; <1%), and transient (n=2691; 82%) and progressive (n=154; 5%) PAH. Transient PAH included persistent PH of the newborn and children with congenital heart defects (CHD) and systemic-to-pulmonary shunt, in whom PAH resolved after successful shunt correction. Progressive PAH mainly included idiopathic PAH (n=36; iPAH) and PAH associated with CHD (n=111; PAH-CHD). Pulmonary arterial hypertension associated with CHD represented highly heterogeneous subgroups. Syndromes were frequently present, especially in progressive PAH (n=60; 39%). Survival for PAH-CHD varied depending on the subgroups, some showing better and others showing worse survival than for iPAH. Survival of children with Eisenmenger syndrome appeared worse than reported in adults. For iPAH and PAH-CHD, annual incidence and point prevalence averaged, respectively, 0.7 and 4.4 (iPAH) and 2.2 and 15.6 (PAH-CHD) cases per million children. Compared to studies in adults, iPAH occurred less whereas PAH-CHD occurred more frequently. Conclusions—: Pediatric PH is characterized by various age-specific diagnoses, the majority of which comprise transient forms of PAH. Incidence of pediatric iPAH is lower whereas incidence of pediatric PAH-CHD is higher than reported in adults. Pediatric PAH-CHD represents a heterogeneous group with highly variable clinical courses.

With circulatory pathology, patient-specific simulation of hemodynamics is required to minimize invasiveness for diagnosis, treatment planning, and followup. We investigated the advantages of a smart combination of often already known hemodynamic principles. The CircAdapt model was designed to simulate beat-to-beat dynamics of the four-chamber heart with systemic and pulmonary circulation while incorporating a realistic relation between pressure-volume load and tissue mechanics and adaptation of tissues to mechanical load. Adaptation was modeled by rules, where a locally sensed signal results in a local action of the tissue. The applied rules were as follows: For blood vessel walls, 1) flow shear stress dilates the wall and 2) tensile stress thickens the wall; for myocardial tissue, 3) strain dilates the wall material, 4) larger maximum sarcomere length increases contractility, and 5) contractility increases wall mass. The circulation was composed of active and passive compliances and inertias. A realistic circulation developed by self-structuring through adaptation provided mean levels of systemic pressure and flow. Ability to simulate a wide variety of patient-specific circumstances was demonstrated by application of the same adaptation rules to the conditions of fetal circulation followed by a switch to the newborn circulation around birth. It was concluded that a few adaptation rules, directed to normalize mechanical load of the tissue, were sufficient to develop and maintain a realistic circulation automatically. Adaptation rules appear to be the key to reduce dramatically the number of input parameters for simulating circulation dynamics. The model may be used to simulate circulation pathology and to predict effects of treatment.

Background: Cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) is increasingly used in children in a variety of anatomical and pathophysiological conditions, but published data are scarce. Objective: To record current practice and results of CRT in paediatric and congenital heart disease. Design: Retrospective multicentre European survey. Setting: Paediatric cardiology and cardiac surgery centres. Patients: One hundred and nine patients aged 0.24–73.8 (median 16.9) years with structural congenital heart disease (n = 87), congenital atrioventricular block (n = 12) and dilated cardiomyopathy (n = 10) with systemic left (n = 69), right (n = 36) or single (n = 4) ventricular dysfunction and ventricular dyssynchrony during sinus rhythm (n = 25) or associated with pacing (n = 84). Interventions: CRT for a median period of 7.5 months (concurrent cardiac surgery in 16/109). Main outcome measures: Functional improvement and echocardiographic change in systemic ventricular function. Results: The z score of the systemic ventricular end-diastolic dimension decreased by median 1.1 (p<0.001). Ejection fraction (EF) or fractional area of change increased by a mean (SD) of 11.5 (14.3)% (p<0.001) and New York Heart Association (NYHA) class improved by median 1.0 grade (p<0.001). Non-response to CRT (18.5%) was multivariably predicted by the presence of primary dilated cardiomyopathy (p = 0.002) and poor NYHA class (p = 0.003). Presence of a systemic left ventricle was the strongest multivariable predictor of improvement in EF/fractional area of change (p<0.001). Results were independent of the number of patients treated in each contributing centre. Conclusion: Heart failure associated with ventricular pacing is the largest indication for CRT in paediatric and congenital heart disease. CRT efficacy varies widely with the underlying anatomical and pathophysiological substrate.

A mathematical model (TriSeg model) of ventricular mechanics incorporating mechanical interaction of the left and right ventricular free walls and the interventricular septum is presented. Global left and right ventricular pump mechanics were related to representative myofiber mechanics in the three ventricular walls, satisfying the principle of conservation of energy. The walls were mechanically coupled satisfying tensile force equilibrium in the junction. Wall sizes and masses were rendered by adaptation to normalize mechanical myofiber load to physiological standard levels. The TriSeg model was implemented in the previously published lumped closed-loop CircAdapt model of heart and circulation. Simulation results of cardiac mechanics and hemodynamics during normal ventricular loading, acute pulmonary hypertension, and chronic pulmonary hypertension (including load adaptation) agreed with clinical data as obtained in healthy volunteers and pulmonary hypertension patients. In chronic pulmonary hypertension, the model predicted right ventricular free wall hypertrophy, increased systolic pulmonary flow acceleration, and increased right ventricular isovolumic contraction and relaxation times. Furthermore, septal curvature decreased linearly with its transmural pressure difference. In conclusion, the TriSeg model enables realistic simulation of ventricular mechanics including interaction between left and right ventricular pump mechanics, dynamics of septal geometry, and myofiber mechanics in the three ventricular walls.