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G. Bussi
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK

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Journal article
Published: 23 March 2021 in Sustainability
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A new multibranch Integrated Catchment (INCA) model INCA-Metals has been developed to simulate the impact of tannery discharges on river systems. The model accounts for the key chemical reaction kinetic processes operating as well as sedimentation, resuspension, dilution, mixing and redistribution of pollutants in rivers downstream of tannery discharge points and for mine discharges or acid rock drainage sites. The model is dynamic and simulates the daily behaviour of hydrology and eight metals, including cadmium, mercury, copper, zinc, lead, arsenic, manganese and chromium, as well as cyanide and ammonia. The model is semi-distributed and can simulate catchments, tributaries and instream river behaviour. The model can also account for diffuse pollution from rural runoff as well as point sources from effluent and trade discharges. The model has been applied to the new Savar tannery complex on the Dhaleshwari River system in Bangladesh to assess the impacts on pollution levels in the river system and to evaluate a set of treatment scenarios for pollution control, particularly in the dry season. It is shown that the new effluent treatment plant at Savar needs to significantly improve its operation and treatment capability in order to alleviate metal pollution in the downstream Dhaleshwari River System and also protect the Meghna River System that falls in the Bay of Bengal.

ACS Style

Paul Whitehead; Zineb Mimouni; Daniel Butterfield; Gianbattista Bussi; Mohammed Hossain; Rebecca Peters; Shammi Shawal; Phillip Holdship; Cordelia Rampley; Li Jin; Duane Ager. A New Multibranch Model for Metals in River Systems: Impacts and Control of Tannery Wastes in Bangladesh. Sustainability 2021, 13, 3556 .

AMA Style

Paul Whitehead, Zineb Mimouni, Daniel Butterfield, Gianbattista Bussi, Mohammed Hossain, Rebecca Peters, Shammi Shawal, Phillip Holdship, Cordelia Rampley, Li Jin, Duane Ager. A New Multibranch Model for Metals in River Systems: Impacts and Control of Tannery Wastes in Bangladesh. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (6):3556.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paul Whitehead; Zineb Mimouni; Daniel Butterfield; Gianbattista Bussi; Mohammed Hossain; Rebecca Peters; Shammi Shawal; Phillip Holdship; Cordelia Rampley; Li Jin; Duane Ager. 2021. "A New Multibranch Model for Metals in River Systems: Impacts and Control of Tannery Wastes in Bangladesh." Sustainability 13, no. 6: 3556.

Journal article
Published: 22 March 2021 in Water
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With widespread, long-term historical use of plastics and the presence of microplastics in a range of new and existing products, there is rising concern about their potential impacts on freshwater ecosystems. Understanding how microplastics are transported and distributed along river systems is key to assessing impacts. Modelling the main flow dynamics, mixing, sedimentation and resuspension processes is essential for an understanding of the transport processes. We use the new, processed based, dynamic, integrated catchments (INCA) microplastics model and apply this to the whole of the freshwater catchment of the River Thames, UK, to evaluate inputs, loads and concentrations along the river system. Recent data from UK water industry studies on microplastics in effluent discharges and sewage sludge disposal has been utilised to drive the INCA microplastics model. Predicted concentrations and microplastic loads moving along the river system are shown to be significant, with a build-up of concentrations along the river, with increasing deposition on the riverbed. The potential impacts on aquatic ecosystems are evaluated and a review of policy implications is explored.

ACS Style

Paul Whitehead; Gianbattista Bussi; Jocelyne Hughes; Ana Castro-Castellon; Magnus Norling; Elizabeth Jeffers; Cordelia Rampley; Daniel Read; Alice Horton. Modelling Microplastics in the River Thames: Sources, Sinks and Policy Implications. Water 2021, 13, 861 .

AMA Style

Paul Whitehead, Gianbattista Bussi, Jocelyne Hughes, Ana Castro-Castellon, Magnus Norling, Elizabeth Jeffers, Cordelia Rampley, Daniel Read, Alice Horton. Modelling Microplastics in the River Thames: Sources, Sinks and Policy Implications. Water. 2021; 13 (6):861.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paul Whitehead; Gianbattista Bussi; Jocelyne Hughes; Ana Castro-Castellon; Magnus Norling; Elizabeth Jeffers; Cordelia Rampley; Daniel Read; Alice Horton. 2021. "Modelling Microplastics in the River Thames: Sources, Sinks and Policy Implications." Water 13, no. 6: 861.

Journal article
Published: 07 March 2021 in Water
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Process-based models are commonly used to design management strategies to reduce excessive algal growth and subsequent hypoxia. However, management targets typically focus on phosphorus control, under the assumption that successful nutrient reduction will solve hypoxia issues. Algal responses to nutrient drivers are not linear and depend on additional biotic and abiotic controls. In order to generate a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of nutrient control strategies, independent nutrient, dissolved oxygen (DO), temperature and algal models must be coupled, which can increase overall uncertainty. Here, we extend an existing process-based phosphorus model (INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics) to include biological oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO) and algal growth and decay (INCA-PEco). We applied the resultant model in two eutrophied mesoscale catchments with continental and maritime climates. We assessed effects of regional differences in climate and land use on parameter importance during calibration using a generalised sensitivity analysis. We successfully reproduced in-stream total phosphorus (TP), suspended sediment, DO, BOD and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations across a range of temporal scales, land uses and climate regimes. While INCA-PEco is highly parameterized, model uncertainty can be significantly reduced by focusing calibration and monitoring efforts on just 18 of those parameters. Specifically, calibration time could be optimized by focusing on hydrological parameters (base flow, Manning’s n and river depth). In locations with significant inputs of diffuse nutrients, e.g., in agricultural catchments, detailed data on crop growth and nutrient uptake rates are also important. The remaining parameters provide flexibility to the user, broaden model applicability, and maximize its functionality under a changing climate.

ACS Style

Jill Crossman; Gianbattista Bussi; Paul Whitehead; Daniel Butterfield; Emma Lannergård; Martyn Futter. A New, Catchment-Scale Integrated Water Quality Model of Phosphorus, Dissolved Oxygen, Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Phytoplankton: INCA-Phosphorus Ecology (PEco). Water 2021, 13, 723 .

AMA Style

Jill Crossman, Gianbattista Bussi, Paul Whitehead, Daniel Butterfield, Emma Lannergård, Martyn Futter. A New, Catchment-Scale Integrated Water Quality Model of Phosphorus, Dissolved Oxygen, Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Phytoplankton: INCA-Phosphorus Ecology (PEco). Water. 2021; 13 (5):723.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jill Crossman; Gianbattista Bussi; Paul Whitehead; Daniel Butterfield; Emma Lannergård; Martyn Futter. 2021. "A New, Catchment-Scale Integrated Water Quality Model of Phosphorus, Dissolved Oxygen, Biochemical Oxygen Demand and Phytoplankton: INCA-Phosphorus Ecology (PEco)." Water 13, no. 5: 723.

Journal article
Published: 25 January 2021 in Sustainability
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Assessing the impact of climate change and population growth on river water quality is a key issue for many developing countries, where multiple and often conflicting river water uses (water supply, irrigation, wastewater disposal) are placing increasing pressure on limited water resources. However, comprehensive water quality datasets are often lacking, thus impeding a full-scale data-based river water quality assessment. Here we propose a model-based approach, using both global datasets and local data to build an evaluation of the potential impact of climate changes and population growth, as well as to verify the efficiency of mitigation measures to curb river water pollution. The upper Awash River catchment in Ethiopia, which drains the city of Addis Ababa as well as many agricultural areas, is used as a case-study. The results show that while decreases in runoff and increases in temperature due to climate change are expected to result in slightly decreased nutrient concentrations, the largest threat to the water quality of the Awash River is population growth, which is expected to increase nutrient loads by 15 to 20% (nitrate) and 30 to 40% (phosphorus) in the river by the second half of the 21st century. Even larger increases are to be expected downstream of large urban areas, such as Addis Ababa. However, improved wastewater treatment options are shown to be efficient in counteracting the negative impact of population growth and returning water pollution to acceptable levels.

ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead; Li Jin; Meron T. Taye; Ellen Dyer; Feyera A. Hirpa; Yosef Abebe Yimer; Katrina J. Charles. Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on River Nutrient Loads in a Data Scarce Region: The Upper Awash River (Ethiopia). Sustainability 2021, 13, 1254 .

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Paul G. Whitehead, Li Jin, Meron T. Taye, Ellen Dyer, Feyera A. Hirpa, Yosef Abebe Yimer, Katrina J. Charles. Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on River Nutrient Loads in a Data Scarce Region: The Upper Awash River (Ethiopia). Sustainability. 2021; 13 (3):1254.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead; Li Jin; Meron T. Taye; Ellen Dyer; Feyera A. Hirpa; Yosef Abebe Yimer; Katrina J. Charles. 2021. "Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on River Nutrient Loads in a Data Scarce Region: The Upper Awash River (Ethiopia)." Sustainability 13, no. 3: 1254.

Journal article
Published: 28 September 2020 in Science of The Total Environment
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The livelihoods of millions of people living in the world's deltas are deeply interconnected with the sediment dynamics of these deltas. In particular a sustainable supply of fluvial sediments from upstream is critical for ensuring the fertility of delta soils and for promoting sediment deposition that can offset rising sea levels. Yet, in many large river catchments this supply of sediment is being threatened by the planned construction of large dams. In this study, we apply the INCA hydrological and sediment model to the Mekong River catchment in South East Asia. The aim is to assess the impact of several large dams (both existing and planned) on the suspended sediment fluxes of the river. We force the INCA model with a climate model to assess the interplay of changing climate and sediment trapping caused by dam construction. The results show that historical sediment flux declines are mostly caused by dams built in PR China and that sediment trapping will increase in the future due to the construction of new dams in PDR Lao and Cambodia. If all dams that are currently planned for the next two decades are built, they will induce a decline of suspended sediment flux of 50% (47–53% 90% confidence interval (90%CI)) compared to current levels (99 Mt/year at the delta apex), with potentially damaging consequences for local livelihoods and ecosystems.

ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Stephen E. Darby; Paul G. Whitehead; Li Jin; Simon J. Dadson; Hal E. Voepel; Grigorios Vasilopoulos; Christopher R. Hackney; Craig Hutton; Tristan Berchoux; Daniel R. Parsons; Andrew Nicholas. Impact of dams and climate change on suspended sediment flux to the Mekong delta. Science of The Total Environment 2020, 755, 142468 .

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Stephen E. Darby, Paul G. Whitehead, Li Jin, Simon J. Dadson, Hal E. Voepel, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Christopher R. Hackney, Craig Hutton, Tristan Berchoux, Daniel R. Parsons, Andrew Nicholas. Impact of dams and climate change on suspended sediment flux to the Mekong delta. Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 755 ():142468.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Stephen E. Darby; Paul G. Whitehead; Li Jin; Simon J. Dadson; Hal E. Voepel; Grigorios Vasilopoulos; Christopher R. Hackney; Craig Hutton; Tristan Berchoux; Daniel R. Parsons; Andrew Nicholas. 2020. "Impact of dams and climate change on suspended sediment flux to the Mekong delta." Science of The Total Environment 755, no. : 142468.

Articles
Published: 12 February 2020 in Hydrological Sciences Journal
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Power plants often use river waters for cooling purposes and can be sensitive to droughts and low flows. Water quality is also a concern, due to algal blooms and sediment loads that might clog filters. We assessed the impacts of droughts on river flow and water quality from the point of view of power plant operation. The INCA (INtegrated CAtchment) water quality model was coupled with a climate model to create a dataset of flow and water quality time series, using the River Trent (UK) as a case study. The results hints to a significant decrease in flows and an increase in phosphorus concentrations, potentially enhancing algal production. Power plants should expect more stress in the future based on the results of this study, due to reduced cooling water availability and decreasing upstream water quality. This issue might have serious consequences also on the whole national power network.

ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead. Impacts of droughts on low flows and water quality near power stations. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2020, 65, 898 -913.

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Paul G. Whitehead. Impacts of droughts on low flows and water quality near power stations. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2020; 65 (6):898-913.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead. 2020. "Impacts of droughts on low flows and water quality near power stations." Hydrological Sciences Journal 65, no. 6: 898-913.

Journal article
Published: 10 December 2019 in Water Resources Research
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Water resources planning and management by water utilities has traditionally been based on consideration of water availability. However, the reliability of public water supplies can also be influenced by the quality of water bodies. In this study, we proposed a framework that integrates analysis of risks of inadequate water quality and risks of insufficient water availability. We have developed a coupled modelling system that combines hydrological modelling of river water quantity and quality, rules for water withdrawals from rivers into storage reservoirs, and dynamical simulation of harmful algal blooms in storage reservoirs. We use this framework to assess the impact of climate change, demand growth and land‐use change on reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method is tested on the River Thames catchment, in the South of England. The results show that, alongside the well‐known risks of rising water demand in the South of England and uncertain impacts of climate change, diffuse pollution from agriculture and effluent from upstream waste water treatment works potentially represents a threat to the reliability of public water supplies in London. We quantify the steps that could be taken to ameliorate these threats, though even a vigorous pollution‐prevention strategy would not be sufficient to offset the projected effects of climate change on water quality and the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method can help water utilities to recognise their system vulnerability and evaluate the potential solutions to achieve more reliable water supplies.

ACS Style

Mohammad Mortazavi‐Naeini; Gianbattista Bussi; J. Alex Elliott; Jim W. Hall; Paul G. Whitehead. Assessment of Risks to Public Water Supply From Low Flows and Harmful Water Quality in a Changing Climate. Water Resources Research 2019, 55, 10386 -10404.

AMA Style

Mohammad Mortazavi‐Naeini, Gianbattista Bussi, J. Alex Elliott, Jim W. Hall, Paul G. Whitehead. Assessment of Risks to Public Water Supply From Low Flows and Harmful Water Quality in a Changing Climate. Water Resources Research. 2019; 55 (12):10386-10404.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mohammad Mortazavi‐Naeini; Gianbattista Bussi; J. Alex Elliott; Jim W. Hall; Paul G. Whitehead. 2019. "Assessment of Risks to Public Water Supply From Low Flows and Harmful Water Quality in a Changing Climate." Water Resources Research 55, no. 12: 10386-10404.

Journal article
Published: 02 February 2018 in Science of The Total Environment
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Interactions between climate change and land use change might have substantial effects on aquatic ecosystems, but are still poorly understood. Using the Welsh River Wye as a case study, we linked models of water quality (Integrated Catchment - INCA) and climate (GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and IPSL - Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) under greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to drive a bespoke ecosystem model that simulated the responses of aquatic organisms. The potential effects of economic and social development were also investigated using scenarios from the EU MARS project (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). Longitudinal position along the river mediated response to increasing anthropogenic pressures. Upland locations appeared particularly sensitive to nutrient enrichment or potential re-acidification compared to lowland environments which are already eutrophic. These results can guide attempts to mitigate future impacts and reiterate the need for sensitive land management in upland, temperate environments which are likely to become increasingly important to water supply and biodiversity conservation as the effects of climate change intensify.

ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead; Cayetano Gutierrez Canovas; José L. J. Ledesma; Stephen J Ormerod; Raoul-Marie Couture. Modelling the effects of climate and land-use change on the hydrochemistry and ecology of the River Wye (Wales). Science of The Total Environment 2018, 627, 733 -743.

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Paul G. Whitehead, Cayetano Gutierrez Canovas, José L. J. Ledesma, Stephen J Ormerod, Raoul-Marie Couture. Modelling the effects of climate and land-use change on the hydrochemistry and ecology of the River Wye (Wales). Science of The Total Environment. 2018; 627 ():733-743.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead; Cayetano Gutierrez Canovas; José L. J. Ledesma; Stephen J Ormerod; Raoul-Marie Couture. 2018. "Modelling the effects of climate and land-use change on the hydrochemistry and ecology of the River Wye (Wales)." Science of The Total Environment 627, no. : 733-743.

Journal article
Published: 25 January 2018 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on [email protected] 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900–2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020–2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070–2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period (>3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1–30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.

ACS Style

Benoit P. Guillod; Richard G. Jones; Simon J. Dadson; Gemma Coxon; Gianbattista Bussi; James Freer; Alison L. Kay; Neil R. Massey; Sarah N. Sparrow; David C. H. Wallom; Myles R. Allen; Jim W. Hall. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2018, 22, 611 -634.

AMA Style

Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, Jim W. Hall. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2018; 22 (1):611-634.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benoit P. Guillod; Richard G. Jones; Simon J. Dadson; Gemma Coxon; Gianbattista Bussi; James Freer; Alison L. Kay; Neil R. Massey; Sarah N. Sparrow; David C. H. Wallom; Myles R. Allen; Jim W. Hall. 2018. "A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 1: 611-634.

Journal article
Published: 01 October 2017 in Journal of Hydrology
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ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead; Amy R.C. Thomas; Dario Masante; Laurence Jones; B. Jack Cosby; Bridget Emmett; Shelagh K. Malham; Christel Prudhomme; Havard Prosser. Climate and land-use change impact on faecal indicator bacteria in a temperate maritime catchment (the River Conwy, Wales). Journal of Hydrology 2017, 553, 248 -261.

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Paul G. Whitehead, Amy R.C. Thomas, Dario Masante, Laurence Jones, B. Jack Cosby, Bridget Emmett, Shelagh K. Malham, Christel Prudhomme, Havard Prosser. Climate and land-use change impact on faecal indicator bacteria in a temperate maritime catchment (the River Conwy, Wales). Journal of Hydrology. 2017; 553 ():248-261.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead; Amy R.C. Thomas; Dario Masante; Laurence Jones; B. Jack Cosby; Bridget Emmett; Shelagh K. Malham; Christel Prudhomme; Havard Prosser. 2017. "Climate and land-use change impact on faecal indicator bacteria in a temperate maritime catchment (the River Conwy, Wales)." Journal of Hydrology 553, no. : 248-261.

Journal article
Published: 01 July 2017 in Science of The Total Environment
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The combined indirect and direct impacts of land use change and climate change on river water quality were assessed. A land use allocation model was used to evaluate the response of the catchment land use to long-term climatic changes. Its results were used to drive a water quality model and assess the impact of climatic alterations on freshwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the likelihood of such response. The River Thames catchment (UK) was used as a case-study. If land use is considered as static parameter, according to the model results, climate change alone should reduce the average nitrate concentration, although just by a small amount, by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to reduced runoff (and lower export of nitrate from agricultural soils) and increased instream denitrification, and should increase the average phosphorus concentration by 12% by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to a reduction of the effluent dilution capacity of the river flow. However, the results of this study also show that these long-term climatic alterations are likely to lead to a reduction in the arable land in the Thames, replaced by improved grassland, due to a decrease in agriculture profitability in the UK. Taking into account the dynamic co-evolution of land use with climate, the average nitrate concentration is expected to be decreased by around 6% by the 2050s in both the upper and the lower Thames, following the model results, and the average phosphorus concentration increased by 13% in the upper Thames and 5% in the lower Thames. On the long term (2080s), nitrate is expected to decrease by 9% and 8% (upper and lower Thames respectively) and phosphorus not to change in the upper thames and increase by 5% in the lower Thames.

ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Victoria Janes-Bassett; Paul G. Whitehead; Simon Dadson; Ian Holman. Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes. Science of The Total Environment 2017, 590-591, 818 -831.

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Victoria Janes-Bassett, Paul G. Whitehead, Simon Dadson, Ian Holman. Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes. Science of The Total Environment. 2017; 590-591 ():818-831.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Victoria Janes-Bassett; Paul G. Whitehead; Simon Dadson; Ian Holman. 2017. "Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes." Science of The Total Environment 590-591, no. : 818-831.

Preprint content
Published: 23 May 2017
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ACS Style

Benoit P. Guillod; Richard G. Jones; Simon J. Dadson; Gemma Coxon; Gianbattista Bussi; James Freer; Alison L. Kay; Neil R. Massey; Sarah N. Sparrow; David C. H. Wallom; Myles R. Allen; Jim W. Hall. Supplementary material to "A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK". 2017, 1 .

AMA Style

Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, Jim W. Hall. Supplementary material to "A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK". . 2017; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benoit P. Guillod; Richard G. Jones; Simon J. Dadson; Gemma Coxon; Gianbattista Bussi; James Freer; Alison L. Kay; Neil R. Massey; Sarah N. Sparrow; David C. H. Wallom; Myles R. Allen; Jim W. Hall. 2017. "Supplementary material to "A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK"." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 23 May 2017
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Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on [email protected], a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model. Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900–2006), (ii) five near future scenarios (2020–2049) and (ii) five far future scenarios (2070–2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period (>3 months) and shorter duration high precipitation (1–30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK climate projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.

ACS Style

Benoit P. Guillod; Richard G. Jones; Simon J. Dadson; Gemma Coxon; Gianbattista Bussi; James Freer; Alison L. Kay; Neil R. Massey; Sarah N. Sparrow; David C. H. Wallom; Myles R. Allen; Jim W. Hall. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK. 2017, 2017, 1 -39.

AMA Style

Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson, Gemma Coxon, Gianbattista Bussi, James Freer, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Myles R. Allen, Jim W. Hall. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK. . 2017; 2017 ():1-39.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benoit P. Guillod; Richard G. Jones; Simon J. Dadson; Gemma Coxon; Gianbattista Bussi; James Freer; Alison L. Kay; Neil R. Massey; Sarah N. Sparrow; David C. H. Wallom; Myles R. Allen; Jim W. Hall. 2017. "A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK." 2017, no. : 1-39.

Journal article
Published: 25 February 2017 in Journal of Soils and Sediments
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Erosion processes at the catchment scale control a basin’s morphology and sediment patterns in the river network. Eroded sediments are transported and deposited downstream and may cause environmental problems and relevant effects on water storage and hydropower infrastructures. Quantification of water and sediment yield is complex due to the physical processes involved and their temporal and spatial variability, especially at the light of current global change. Numerical models that use spatially distributed information constitute a useful tool for these estimates, when sufficient input data are available. In this study, we applied the hydrological and sedimentological TETIS model to determine the patterns of water and sediment yield in a large mountain catchment. Flow discharge data obtained from two gauged stations were used for calibration and validation of the hydrological sub-model. Data from two reservoir bathymetries at the outlet of the study area were used for calibration of the sedimentological sub-model. After model calibration, several scenarios of climate and land use change were simulated. Climate scenarios show a general decrease in average annual precipitation and an increase in temperature, associated with an increase in extreme rainfall events. Global change scenarios lead to a counteracting effect between the increase in sediment transport during extreme events and the decrease in sediment erosion associated with afforestation following the abandonment of agricultural land. In the case of the most extreme climate scenario combined with total catchment deforestation, the model indicates a complete siltation of the reservoir by 2050. Model performance emphasizes its potential as a tool for evaluating water and sediment yield for large catchments, as well as of its usefulness for water and sediment management in light of future climate and land use change scenarios.

ACS Style

Albert Herrero; Cristina Buendía; Gianbattista Bussi; Sergi Sabater; Damià Vericat; Antoni Palau; Ramon J. Batalla. Modeling the sedimentary response of a large Pyrenean basin to global change. Journal of Soils and Sediments 2017, 17, 2677 -2690.

AMA Style

Albert Herrero, Cristina Buendía, Gianbattista Bussi, Sergi Sabater, Damià Vericat, Antoni Palau, Ramon J. Batalla. Modeling the sedimentary response of a large Pyrenean basin to global change. Journal of Soils and Sediments. 2017; 17 (11):2677-2690.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Albert Herrero; Cristina Buendía; Gianbattista Bussi; Sergi Sabater; Damià Vericat; Antoni Palau; Ramon J. Batalla. 2017. "Modeling the sedimentary response of a large Pyrenean basin to global change." Journal of Soils and Sediments 17, no. 11: 2677-2690.

Journals
Published: 22 February 2017 in Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts
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The application of metaldehyde to agricultural catchment areas to control slugs and snails has caused severe problems for drinking water supply in recent years.

ACS Style

Qiong Lu; P. G. Whitehead; Gianbattista Bussi; M. N. Futter; L. Nizzetto. Modelling metaldehyde in catchments: a River Thames case-study. Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts 2017, 19, 586 -595.

AMA Style

Qiong Lu, P. G. Whitehead, Gianbattista Bussi, M. N. Futter, L. Nizzetto. Modelling metaldehyde in catchments: a River Thames case-study. Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts. 2017; 19 (4):586-595.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Qiong Lu; P. G. Whitehead; Gianbattista Bussi; M. N. Futter; L. Nizzetto. 2017. "Modelling metaldehyde in catchments: a River Thames case-study." Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts 19, no. 4: 586-595.

Journal article
Published: 01 February 2017 in Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
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Sediment dynamics of lowland rivers are of importance in building resilient strategies to manage environmental change. Yet the effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on sediment dynamics are poorly understood. Here a low-frequency suspended sediment sampling data set is used to assess the spatial and temporal variations of suspended sediment fluxes in the River Thames (United Kingdom). Sediment rating curves (SRCs) were used to analyze both the spatial and the temporal variation of catchment-suspended sediment transport. SRC exponents for the River Thames were found to be between 0.21 and 1.13. The 95% confidence interval was also determined through a bootstrapping technique. The seasonal and interannual variability of SRC parameters were analyzed to reveal seasonal and secular changes. The results are used to quantify the seasonal flushing effect, in which suspended sediment concentrations are typically substantially higher during the first floods after the summer dry period. The suspended sediment concentrations of the River Thames during the first floods after summer are estimated to be around 1.5–2 times those of other floods, for a given water discharge. A decrease in the flushing effect which began in the 1990s is observed (around 50% of its original magnitude), which may be attributable to changes in catchment and river channel management.

ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Simon J. Dadson; Michael J. Bowes; Paul G. Whitehead. Seasonal and Interannual Changes in Sediment Transport Identified through Sediment Rating Curves. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2017, 22, 06016016 .

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Simon J. Dadson, Michael J. Bowes, Paul G. Whitehead. Seasonal and Interannual Changes in Sediment Transport Identified through Sediment Rating Curves. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2017; 22 (2):06016016.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Simon J. Dadson; Michael J. Bowes; Paul G. Whitehead. 2017. "Seasonal and Interannual Changes in Sediment Transport Identified through Sediment Rating Curves." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 22, no. 2: 06016016.

Journal article
Published: 01 February 2017 in Journal of Hydrology
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This paper presents the hydrological and water quality response from a series of extreme storm events that passed across the UK during the winter of 2013/2014, in an experimental catchment with a strong rural-urban gradient across four nested sub-catchment areas. The Ray catchment in the upper Thames basin, UK, was extensively monitored using in-situ, high-resolution (15 minute) flow and water quality instrumentation. Dissolved oxygen, ammonium, turbidity and specific conductivity are used to characterise the water quality dynamics. The impact of the Swindon sewage treatment works (SSTW) on water chemistry at the catchment outlet is considerable. Hydrological and water-quality response varies considerably during the events, with the rural catchments exhibiting a much slower hydrological response compared to urban areas. A simple hydrological model (TETIS) was developed to provide insight into water sources in nested subcatchments, highlighting the disparity of the hydrological dynamics across contrasting land-uses during events. The variation in stormwater runoff sources impacts water quality signals with urban sites contributing to dilution dynamics in ammonium, whereas the more rural site experiences a peak in ammonium during the same event. Dissolved oxygen concentrations vary on a rural-urban gradient and experience a notable sag at the Water Eaton outlet (4.4mg/l) during the events, that would have resulted in significant ecological harm had they occurred during the summer in warmer temperatures. The water-quality legacy of these storms in the wider context of the hydrological year is somewhat negligible, with markedly poorer water quality signals being observed during the summer months of 2014. Although ammonium concentrations during the events are elevated (above the ‘good’ status threshold under the WFD), higher values are observed during spring and summer months. The high flows actually appear to flush contaminants out of the Ray and its subcatchments, though the urban sites demonstrate a resupply dynamic during interim dry periods. Data suggest winter storms following dry spells in urban catchments cause some short-lived and spatially extensive deteriorations in water quality. More chronic effects, although prolonged, are only seen downstream of SSTW. These are indicative of capacity of infrastructure being reached, and from the data do not appear to be severe enough to cause ecological harm

ACS Style

Scott McGrane; Michael G. Hutchins; James Miller; Gianbattista Bussi; Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen; Matt Loewenthal. During a winter of storms in a small UK catchment, hydrology and water quality responses follow a clear rural-urban gradient. Journal of Hydrology 2017, 545, 463 -477.

AMA Style

Scott McGrane, Michael G. Hutchins, James Miller, Gianbattista Bussi, Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen, Matt Loewenthal. During a winter of storms in a small UK catchment, hydrology and water quality responses follow a clear rural-urban gradient. Journal of Hydrology. 2017; 545 ():463-477.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Scott McGrane; Michael G. Hutchins; James Miller; Gianbattista Bussi; Thomas Rodding Kjeldsen; Matt Loewenthal. 2017. "During a winter of storms in a small UK catchment, hydrology and water quality responses follow a clear rural-urban gradient." Journal of Hydrology 545, no. : 463-477.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2016 in Science of The Total Environment
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Potential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England). In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increase in phytoplankton concentration, and in some cases, compensate for the effect of rising temperature.

ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead; Mike Bowes; Daniel S. Read; Christel Prudhomme; Simon Dadson. Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK). Science of The Total Environment 2016, 572, 1507 -1519.

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Paul G. Whitehead, Mike Bowes, Daniel S. Read, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Dadson. Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK). Science of The Total Environment. 2016; 572 ():1507-1519.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Paul G. Whitehead; Mike Bowes; Daniel S. Read; Christel Prudhomme; Simon Dadson. 2016. "Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)." Science of The Total Environment 572, no. : 1507-1519.

Journal article
Published: 01 November 2016 in Journal of Hydrology
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The effects of climate change and variability on river flows have been widely studied. However the impacts of such changes on sediment transport have received comparatively little attention. In part this is because modelling sediment production and transport processes introduces additional uncertainty, but it also results from the fact that, alongside the climate change signal, there have been and are projected to be significant changes in land cover which strongly affect sediment-related processes. Here we assess the impact of a range of climatic variations and land covers on the River Thames catchment (UK). We first calculate a response of the system to climatic stressors (average precipitation, average temperature and increase in extreme precipitation) and land-cover stressors (change in the extent of arable land). To do this we use an ensemble of INCA hydrological and sediment behavioural models. The resulting system response, which reveals the nature of interactions between the driving factors, is then compared with climate projections originating from the UKCP09 assessment (UK Climate Projections 2009) to evaluate the likelihood of the range of projected outcomes. The results show that climate and land cover each exert an individual control on sediment transport. Their effects vary depending on the land use and on the level of projected climate change. The suspended sediment yield of the River Thames in its lowermost reach is expected to change by −4% (−16% to +13%, confidence interval, p = 0.95) under the A1FI emission scenario for the 2030s, although these figures could be substantially altered by an increase in extreme precipitation, which could raise the suspended sediment yield up to an additional +10%. A 70% increase in the extension of the arable land is projected to increase sediment yield by around 12% in the lowland reaches. A 50% reduction is projected to decrease sediment yield by around 13%

ACS Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Simon Dadson; Christel Prudhomme; Paul G. Whitehead. Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK). Journal of Hydrology 2016, 542, 357 -372.

AMA Style

Gianbattista Bussi, Simon Dadson, Christel Prudhomme, Paul G. Whitehead. Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK). Journal of Hydrology. 2016; 542 ():357-372.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gianbattista Bussi; Simon Dadson; Christel Prudhomme; Paul G. Whitehead. 2016. "Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK)." Journal of Hydrology 542, no. : 357-372.

Journal article
Published: 01 October 2016 in Journal of Hydrology
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This paper analyses the Girona River (Spain) flash flood, occurred on the 12th of October 2007, combining hydrological and hydraulic modeling with geomorphologic mapping and post-flood survey information. This research aims to reproduce the flood event in order to understand and decipher the flood processes and dynamics on a system of overlapped prograding alluvial fans. The hydrological model TETIS was used to characterize the shape and dimension of the October 2007 Girona River hydrograph. Subsequently, the flood event was reproduced using the free surface flow module of the model RiverFlow2D. The combination of hydrological and hydraulic models was evaluated using post-flood surveys defining maximum flooded area and flood depths. Then, simulations with different peak discharges were carried out to estimate the hydro-geomorphologic response of the Girona River floodplain, through the identification of the activation thresholds in different geomorphic elements. Results showed that the unit peak discharge of the October 2007 flood event (5 m3 s-1 km-2) was among the largest ever recorded in the area, according to the existing literature. Likewise, the hydraulic model showed a good performance in reproducing the flood event (FitA = 76%, RMSE = 0.65 m and NSE = 0.6), despite the complexity of the case, an ephemeral and ungauged river. The model simulation revealed the existence of an activation pattern of paleochannels and alluvial fans, which was altered by the presence of some anthropogenic disturbances. This multidisciplinary approach proved to be a useful strategy for understanding flash flood processes in ungauged catchments. It allowed understanding the mechanisms governing floods in alluvial fans systems and it represented a solid contribution for early warning plans and risk mitigation policies.

ACS Style

F. Segura-Beltrán; Carles Sanchis-Ibor; Mario Morales Hernández; M. González-Sanchis; Gianbattista Bussi; E. Ortiz. Using post-flood surveys and geomorphologic mapping to evaluate hydrological and hydraulic models: The flash flood of the Girona River (Spain) in 2007. Journal of Hydrology 2016, 541, 310 -329.

AMA Style

F. Segura-Beltrán, Carles Sanchis-Ibor, Mario Morales Hernández, M. González-Sanchis, Gianbattista Bussi, E. Ortiz. Using post-flood surveys and geomorphologic mapping to evaluate hydrological and hydraulic models: The flash flood of the Girona River (Spain) in 2007. Journal of Hydrology. 2016; 541 ():310-329.

Chicago/Turabian Style

F. Segura-Beltrán; Carles Sanchis-Ibor; Mario Morales Hernández; M. González-Sanchis; Gianbattista Bussi; E. Ortiz. 2016. "Using post-flood surveys and geomorphologic mapping to evaluate hydrological and hydraulic models: The flash flood of the Girona River (Spain) in 2007." Journal of Hydrology 541, no. : 310-329.