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Hydrological modelling requires accurate climate data with high spatial-temporal resolution, which is often unavailable in certain parts of the world—such as Central America. Numerous studies have previously demonstrated that in hydrological modelling, global weather reanalysis data provides a viable alternative to observed data. However, calibrating and validating models requires the use of observed discharge data, which is also frequently unavailable. Recent, global-scale applications have been developed based on weather data from reanalysis; these applications allow streamflows with satisfactory resolution to be obtained. An example is the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), which uses the fifth generation of reanalysis data produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) as input. It provides discharge data from 1979 to the present with a resolution of 0.1°. This study assesses the potential of GloFAS for calibrating hydrological models in ungauged basins. For this purpose, the quality of data from ERA5 and from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation and Temperature with Station as well as the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was analysed. The focus was on flow simulation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The models were calibrated using GloFAS discharge data. Our results indicate that all the reanalysis datasets displayed an acceptable fit with the observed precipitation and temperature data. The correlation coefficient (CC) between the reanalysis data and the observed data indicates a strong relationship at the monthly level all of the analysed stations (CC > 0.80). The Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) also showed the acceptable performance of the calibrated SWAT models (KGE > 0.74). We concluded that GloFAS data has substantial potential for calibrating hydrological models that estimate the monthly streamflow in ungauged watersheds. This approach can aid water resource management.
Javier Senent-Aparicio; Pablo Blanco-Gómez; Adrián López-Ballesteros; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Evaluating the Potential of GloFAS-ERA5 River Discharge Reanalysis Data for Calibrating the SWAT Model in the Grande San Miguel River Basin (El Salvador). Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 3299 .
AMA StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio, Pablo Blanco-Gómez, Adrián López-Ballesteros, Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Evaluating the Potential of GloFAS-ERA5 River Discharge Reanalysis Data for Calibrating the SWAT Model in the Grande San Miguel River Basin (El Salvador). Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (16):3299.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio; Pablo Blanco-Gómez; Adrián López-Ballesteros; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. 2021. "Evaluating the Potential of GloFAS-ERA5 River Discharge Reanalysis Data for Calibrating the SWAT Model in the Grande San Miguel River Basin (El Salvador)." Remote Sensing 13, no. 16: 3299.
Peninsular Spain. Weather data are the key drivers of hydrological modelling. However, available weather data can present gaps in data sequences and are often limited in their spatial coverage for use in such hydrological models as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). To overcome this limitation, SWAT includes a weather generator algorithm that can complete this data based on long-term weather statistics. This work presents a newly developed weather statistics dataset for Peninsular Spain (PSWG), calculated from national gridded datasets according to the SWAT model format. PSWG provides a higher resolution that stands as a compelling alternative to the statistics calculated from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that are available on the SWAT website. The dataset has been evaluated using PSWG and CFSR datasets for different data availability scenarios to reconstruct weather series in three watersheds with contrasting weather climates. Results underscore the superiority of the PSWG dataset in reconstructing missing data for hydrological simulations. This approach provides a strong alternative for SWAT applications in Peninsular Spain and the applied methodology can be replicated in other countries that dispose of high-resolution gridded rainfall and temperature datasets.
Javier Senent-Aparicio; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Adrián López-Ballesteros; José Ginés Giménez; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; José M. Cecilia; Raghavan Srinivasan. Impacts of swat weather generator statistics from high-resolution datasets on monthly streamflow simulation over Peninsular Spain. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 2021, 35, 100826 .
AMA StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio, Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, Adrián López-Ballesteros, José Ginés Giménez, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, José M. Cecilia, Raghavan Srinivasan. Impacts of swat weather generator statistics from high-resolution datasets on monthly streamflow simulation over Peninsular Spain. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 2021; 35 ():100826.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Adrián López-Ballesteros; José Ginés Giménez; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; José M. Cecilia; Raghavan Srinivasan. 2021. "Impacts of swat weather generator statistics from high-resolution datasets on monthly streamflow simulation over Peninsular Spain." Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 35, no. : 100826.
Magnitude and temporal variability of streamflow is essential for natural biodiversity and the stability of aquatic environments. In this study, a comparative analysis between historical data (1971–2013) and future climate change scenarios (2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099) of the hydrological regime in the Eo river, in the north of Spain, is carried out in order to assess the ecological and hydro-geomorphological risks over the short-, medium- and long-term. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied on a daily basis to assess climate-induced hydrological changes in the river under five general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. Statistical results, both in calibration (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE): 0.73, percent bias (PBIAS): 3.52, R2: 0.74) and validation (NSE: 0.62, PBIAS: 6.62, R2: 0.65), are indicative of the SWAT model’s good performance. The ten climate scenarios pointed out a reduction in rainfall (up to −22%) and an increase in temperatures, both maximum (from +1 to +7 °C) and minimum ones (from +1 to +4 °C). Predicted flow rates resulted in an incrementally greater decrease the longer the term is, varying between −5% (in short-term) and −53% (in long-term). The free software IAHRIS (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers) determined that alteration for usual values remains between excellent and good status and from good to moderate in drought values, but flood values showed a deficient regime in most scenarios, which implies an instability of river morphology, a progressive reduction in the section of the river and an advance of aging of riparian habitat, endangering the renewal of the species.
Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Carolina Martínez Martínez Santa-María; Adrián López-Ballesteros. Assessment of Ecological and Hydro-Geomorphological Alterations under Climate Change Using SWAT and IAHRIS in the Eo River in Northern Spain. Water 2020, 12, 1745 .
AMA StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Carolina Martínez Martínez Santa-María, Adrián López-Ballesteros. Assessment of Ecological and Hydro-Geomorphological Alterations under Climate Change Using SWAT and IAHRIS in the Eo River in Northern Spain. Water. 2020; 12 (6):1745.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Carolina Martínez Martínez Santa-María; Adrián López-Ballesteros. 2020. "Assessment of Ecological and Hydro-Geomorphological Alterations under Climate Change Using SWAT and IAHRIS in the Eo River in Northern Spain." Water 12, no. 6: 1745.
Climate change is a worldwide reality with significant effects on hydrological processes. It has already produce alterations in streamflow regime and is expected to continue in the future. To counteract the climate change impact, a better understanding of its effects is necessary. Hydrological models in combination with Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) suppose an up-to-date approach to analyze in detail the impacts of climate change on rivers. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers (IAHRIS) software were successfully applied in Aracthos River basin, an agricultural watershed located in the north-western area of Greece. Statistical indices showed an acceptable performance of the SWAT model in both calibration (R2 = 0.74, NSE = 0.54, PBIAS = 17.06%) and validation (R2 = 0.64, NSE = 0.36, PBIAS = 12.31%) periods on a daily basis. To assess the future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in Aracthos River basin, five Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) were selected and analyzed under two different emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for a long-term period (2070–2099). Results indicate that precipitation and flow is expected to be reduced and maximum and minimum temperature to be increased, compared to the historical period (1970–1999). IHA, obtained from IAHRIS software, revealed that flow regime can undergo a severe alteration, mainly on droughts that are expected to be more significant and longer. All these future hydrologic alterations could have negative consequences on the Aracthos River and its surroundings. The increase of droughts duration in combination with the reduction of flows and the alteration of seasonality can affect the resilience of riverine species and it can produce the loss of hydraulic and environmental diversity. Therefore, this study provides a useful tool for decision makers to develop strategies against the impact of climate change.
Adrián López-Ballesteros; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Carolina Martínez; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece). Science of The Total Environment 2020, 733, 139299 .
AMA StyleAdrián López-Ballesteros, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Carolina Martínez, Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece). Science of The Total Environment. 2020; 733 ():139299.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAdrián López-Ballesteros; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Carolina Martínez; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. 2020. "Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece)." Science of The Total Environment 733, no. : 139299.
The Mar Menor is a hypersaline coastal lagoon with high environmental value and a characteristic example of a highly anthropized hydro-ecosystem located in the southeast of Spain. An unprecedented eutrophication crisis in 2016 and 2019 with abrupt changes in the quality of its waters caused a great social alarm. Understanding and modeling the level of a eutrophication indicator, such as chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), benefits the management of this complex system. In this study, we investigate the potential machine learning (ML) methods to predict the level of Chl-a. Particularly, Multilayer Neural Networks (MLNNs) and Support Vector Regressions (SVRs) are evaluated using as a target dataset information of up to nine different water quality parameters. The most relevant input combinations were extracted using wrapper feature selection methods which simplified the structure of the model, resulting in a more accurate and efficient procedure. Although the performance in the validation phase showed that SVR models obtained better results than MLNNs, experimental results indicated that both ML algorithms provide satisfactory results in the prediction of Chl-a concentration, reaching up to 0.7 R2CV (cross-validated coefficient of determination) for the best-fit models.
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; José M. Cecilia; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Using Machine-Learning Algorithms for Eutrophication Modeling: Case Study of Mar Menor Lagoon (Spain). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2020, 17, 1189 .
AMA StylePatricia Jimeno-Sáez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, José M. Cecilia, Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Using Machine-Learning Algorithms for Eutrophication Modeling: Case Study of Mar Menor Lagoon (Spain). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17 (4):1189.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; José M. Cecilia; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. 2020. "Using Machine-Learning Algorithms for Eutrophication Modeling: Case Study of Mar Menor Lagoon (Spain)." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 4: 1189.
This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.
Pablo Blanco-Gómez; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador). Water 2019, 11, 2360 .
AMA StylePablo Blanco-Gómez, Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador). Water. 2019; 11 (11):2360.
Chicago/Turabian StylePablo Blanco-Gómez; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. 2019. "Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)." Water 11, no. 11: 2360.
Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario.
Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; José María Díaz-Palmero; Juan De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo; Pérez- Sánchez; Jimeno- Sáez; Senent- Aparicio; Díaz- Palmero; De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo. Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN. Applied Sciences 2019, 9, 4155 .
AMA StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez, Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, José María Díaz-Palmero, Juan De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo, Pérez- Sánchez, Jimeno- Sáez, Senent- Aparicio, Díaz- Palmero, De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo. Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN. Applied Sciences. 2019; 9 (19):4155.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; José María Díaz-Palmero; Juan De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo; Pérez- Sánchez; Jimeno- Sáez; Senent- Aparicio; Díaz- Palmero; De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo. 2019. "Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN." Applied Sciences 9, no. 19: 4155.
Best management practices (BMPs) provide a feasible solution for non-point source pollution problems. High sediment and nutrient yields without retention control result in environmental deterioration of surrounding areas. In the present study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was developed for El Beal watershed, an anthropogenic and ungauged basin located in the southeast of Spain that drains into a coastal lagoon of high environmental value. The effectiveness of five BMPs (contour planting, filter strips, reforestation, fertilizer application and check dam restoration) was quantified, both individually and in combination, to test their impact on sediment and nutrient reduction. For calibration and validation processes, actual evapotranspiration (AET) data obtained from a remote sensing dataset called Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) were used. The SWAT model achieved good performance in the calibration period, with statistical values of 0.78 for Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), 0.81 for coefficient of determination (R2), 0.58 for Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and 3.9% for percent bias (PBIAS), as well as in the validation period (KGE = 0.67, R2 = 0.83, NS = 0.53 and PBIAS = −25.3%). The results show that check dam restoration is the most effective BMP with a reduction of 90% in sediment yield (S), 15% in total nitrogen (TN) and 22% in total phosphorus (TP) at the watershed scale, followed by reforestation (S = 27%, TN = 16% and TP = 20%). All effectiveness values improved when BMPs were assessed in combination. The outcome of this study could provide guidance for decision makers in developing possible solutions for environmental problems in a coastal lagoon.
Adrián López-Ballesteros; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Raghavan Srinivasan; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Assessing the Impact of Best Management Practices in a Highly Anthropogenic and Ungauged Watershed Using the SWAT Model: A Case Study in the El Beal Watershed (Southeast Spain). Agronomy 2019, 9, 576 .
AMA StyleAdrián López-Ballesteros, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Raghavan Srinivasan, Julio Pérez-Sánchez. Assessing the Impact of Best Management Practices in a Highly Anthropogenic and Ungauged Watershed Using the SWAT Model: A Case Study in the El Beal Watershed (Southeast Spain). Agronomy. 2019; 9 (10):576.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAdrián López-Ballesteros; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Raghavan Srinivasan; Julio Pérez-Sánchez. 2019. "Assessing the Impact of Best Management Practices in a Highly Anthropogenic and Ungauged Watershed Using the SWAT Model: A Case Study in the El Beal Watershed (Southeast Spain)." Agronomy 9, no. 10: 576.
Water availability is essential for the appropriate analysis of its sustainable management. We performed a comparative study of six hydrological balance models (Témez, ABCD, GR2M, AWBM, GUO-5p, and Thornthwaite-Mather) in several basins with different climatic conditions within Spain in the 1977–2010 period. We applied six statistical indices to compare the results of the models: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), and the relative error between observed and simulated run-off volumes (REV). Furthermore, we applied the FITEVAL software to determine the uncertainty of the model. The results show that when the catchments are more humid the obtained results are better. The GR2M model gave the best fit in peninsular Spain in a UNEP aridity index framework above 1, and NSE values above 0.75 in a 95% confidence interval classify GR2M as very good for humid watersheds. The use of REV is also a key index in the assessment of the margin of error. Flow duration curves show good performance in the probabilities of exceedance lower than 80% in wet watersheds and deviations in low streamflows account for less than 5% of the total streamflow.
Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Francisco Segura-Méndez; David Pulido-Velazquez; Raghavan Srinivasan. Evaluating Hydrological Models for Deriving Water Resources in Peninsular Spain. Sustainability 2019, 11, 2872 .
AMA StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Francisco Segura-Méndez, David Pulido-Velazquez, Raghavan Srinivasan. Evaluating Hydrological Models for Deriving Water Resources in Peninsular Spain. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (10):2872.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Francisco Segura-Méndez; David Pulido-Velazquez; Raghavan Srinivasan. 2019. "Evaluating Hydrological Models for Deriving Water Resources in Peninsular Spain." Sustainability 11, no. 10: 2872.
Climate change and the land-use and land-cover changes (LULC) resulting from anthropic activity are important factors in the degradation of an ecosystem and in the availability of a basin’s water resources. To know how these activities affect the quantity of the water resources of basins, such as the Segura River Basin, is of vital importance. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for the study of the abovementioned impacts. The model was validated by obtaining a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and a percent bias (PBIAS) of 17.23%, indicating that SWAT accurately replicated monthly streamflow. Next, land-use maps for the years of 1956 and 2007 were used to establish a series of scenarios that allowed us to evaluate the effects of these activities on both joint and individual water resources. A reforestation plan applied in the basin during the 1970s caused that the forest area had almost doubled, whereas the agricultural areas and shrubland had been reduced by one-third. These modifications, together with the effect of climate change, have led to a decrease of 26.3% in the quantity of generated water resources, not only due to climate change but also due to the increase in forest area.
Javier Senent-Aparicio; Sitian Liu; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Adrián López-Ballesteros; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez. Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain). Sustainability 2018, 10, 3277 .
AMA StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio, Sitian Liu, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, Adrián López-Ballesteros, Patricia Jimeno-Sáez. Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain). Sustainability. 2018; 10 (9):3277.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio; Sitian Liu; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Adrián López-Ballesteros; Patricia Jimeno-Sáez. 2018. "Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)." Sustainability 10, no. 9: 3277.
A correct estimation of the instantaneous peak flow (IPF) is crucial to reducing the consequences of flash floods. An approach to estimate the IPF, obtained by combining Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulation and machine-learning models, was proposed and then verified by comparison with observation-based results in the Ladra river basin, northwest Spain. The SWAT model has been used to estimate the maximum mean daily flow (MMDF), and machine-learning models have been used to estimate the IPF based on MMDF. Four nonlinear time-series intelligence models, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector machine (SVM) and extreme learning machine (ELM) were applied, and their results were compared. The Modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (MNSE) and the index of agreement (d) were used to evaluate SWAT performance while simulating MMDF, and the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean square error (RMSE) were employed to evaluate the performance of these intelligent systems. According to the results, the SWAT hydrological model is a useful tool to simulate MMDF. Validation analyses resulted in values of statistical indexes (MNSE = 0.64 and d = 0.95). Regarding intelligent systems, the results show that they can be successfully used in predicting IPF, but ELM has demonstrated a superior ability to estimate IPF from the MMDF (R2 = 0.86 and RMSE = 48.59). The results of this study can contribute to predicting IPF in areas where sub-daily observational data are scarce, thereby reducing uncertainties associated with IPF estimations.
Javier Senent-Aparicio; Patricia Jimeno Sáez; Andrés Bueno-Crespo; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velázquez. Coupling machine-learning techniques with SWAT model for instantaneous peak flow prediction. Biosystems Engineering 2018, 177, 67 -77.
AMA StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio, Patricia Jimeno Sáez, Andrés Bueno-Crespo, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, David Pulido-Velázquez. Coupling machine-learning techniques with SWAT model for instantaneous peak flow prediction. Biosystems Engineering. 2018; 177 ():67-77.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio; Patricia Jimeno Sáez; Andrés Bueno-Crespo; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velázquez. 2018. "Coupling machine-learning techniques with SWAT model for instantaneous peak flow prediction." Biosystems Engineering 177, no. : 67-77.
The availability of precipitation data is the key driver in the application of hydrological models when simulating streamflow. Ground weather stations are regularly used to measure precipitation. However, spatial coverage is often limited in low-population areas and mountain areas. To overcome this limitation, gridded datasets from remote sensing have been widely used. This study evaluates four widely used global precipitation datasets (GPDs): The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), against point gauge and gridded dataset observations using multiple monthly water balance models (MWBMs) in four different meso-scale basins that cover the main climatic zones of Peninsular Spain. The volumes of precipitation obtained from the GPDs tend to be smaller than those from the gauged data. Results underscore the superiority of the national gridded dataset, although the TRMM provides satisfactory results in simulating streamflow, reaching similar Nash-Sutcliffe values, between 0.70 and 0.95, and an average total volume error of 12% when using the GR2M model. The performance of GPDs highly depends on the climate, so that the more humid the watershed is, the better results can be achieved. The procedures used can be applied in regions with similar case studies to more accurately assess the resources within a system in which there is scarcity of recorded data available.
Javier Senent-Aparicio; Adrián López-Ballesteros; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Francisco José Segura-Méndez; David Pulido-Velazquez. Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain. Remote Sensing 2018, 10, 922 .
AMA StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio, Adrián López-Ballesteros, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, Francisco José Segura-Méndez, David Pulido-Velazquez. Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain. Remote Sensing. 2018; 10 (6):922.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio; Adrián López-Ballesteros; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Francisco José Segura-Méndez; David Pulido-Velazquez. 2018. "Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain." Remote Sensing 10, no. 6: 922.
Streamflow data are of prime importance to water-resources planning and management, and the accuracy of their estimation is very important for decision making. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have been evaluated and compared to find a method to improve streamflow estimation. For a more complete evaluation, the accuracy and ability of these streamflow estimation models was also established separately based on their performance during different periods of flows using regional flow duration curves (FDCs). Specifically, the FDCs were divided into five sectors: very low, low, medium, high and very high flow. This segmentation of flow allows analysis of the model performance for every important discharge event precisely. In this study, the models were applied in two catchments in Peninsular Spain with contrasting climatic conditions: Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. The results indicate that SWAT and ANNs were generally good tools in daily streamflow modelling. However, SWAT was found to be more successful in relation to better simulation of lower flows, while ANNs were superior at estimating higher flows in all cases.
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velazquez. A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain. Water 2018, 10, 192 .
AMA StylePatricia Jimeno-Sáez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, David Pulido-Velazquez. A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain. Water. 2018; 10 (2):192.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velazquez. 2018. "A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain." Water 10, no. 2: 192.
Dry spells are an essential concept of drought climatology that clearly defines the semiarid Mediterranean environment and whose consequences are a defining feature for an ecosystem, so vulnerable with regard to water. The present study was conducted to characterize rainfall drought in the Segura River basin located in eastern Spain, marked by the self seasonal nature of these latitudes. A daily precipitation set has been utilized for 29 weather stations during a period of 20 years (1993–2013). Furthermore, four sets of dry spell length (complete series, monthly maximum, seasonal maximum, and annual maximum) are used and simulated for all the weather stations with the following probability distribution functions: Burr, Dagum, error, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, generalized Pareto, Gumbel Max, inverse Gaussian, Johnson SB, Log-Logistic, Log-Pearson 3, Triangular, Weibull, and Wakeby. Only the series of annual maximum spell offer a good adjustment for all the weather stations, thereby gaining the role of Wakeby as the best result, with a p value means of 0.9424 for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (0.2 significance level). Probability of dry spell duration for return periods of 2, 5, 10, and 25 years maps reveal the northeast-southeast gradient, increasing periods with annual rainfall of less than 0.1 mm in the eastern third of the basin, in the proximity of the Mediterranean slope.
Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio. Analysis of meteorological droughts and dry spells in semiarid regions: a comparative analysis of probability distribution functions in the Segura Basin (SE Spain). Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 2017, 133, 1061 -1074.
AMA StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez, Javier Senent-Aparicio. Analysis of meteorological droughts and dry spells in semiarid regions: a comparative analysis of probability distribution functions in the Segura Basin (SE Spain). Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 2017; 133 (3-4):1061-1074.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio. 2017. "Analysis of meteorological droughts and dry spells in semiarid regions: a comparative analysis of probability distribution functions in the Segura Basin (SE Spain)." Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 133, no. 3-4: 1061-1074.
Forest fires are an important distortion in forest ecosystems, linked to their development and whose effects proceed beyond the destruction of ecosystems and material properties, especially in semiarid regions. Prevention of forest fires has to lean on indices based on available parameters that quantify fire risk ignition and spreading. The present study was conducted to compare four fire weather indices in a semiarid region of 11,314km located in southern Spain, characterised as being part of the most damaged area by fire in the Iberian Peninsula. The studied period comprises 3033 wildfires in the region during 15years (2000-2014), of which 80% are >100m and 14% >1000m, resulting around 40km of burnt area in this period. The indices selected have been Angström Index, Forest Fire Drought Index, Forest Moisture Index and Fire Weather Index. Likewise, four selection methods have been applied to compare the results of the studied indices: Mahalanobis distance, percentile method, ranked percentile method and Relative Operating Characteristic curves (ROC). Angström index gives good results in the coastal areas with higher temperatures, low rainfall and wider range of variations while Fire Weather Index has better results in inland areas with higher rainfall, dense forest mass and fewer changes in meteorological conditions throughout the year. ROC space rejects all the indices except Fire Weather Index with good performance all over the region. ROC analysis ratios can be used to assess the success (or lack thereof) of fire indices; thus, it benefits operational wildfire predictions in semiarid regions similar to that of the case study.
Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; José María Díaz-Palmero; Juan De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo. A comparative study of fire weather indices in a semiarid south-eastern Europe region. Case of study: Murcia (Spain). Science of The Total Environment 2017, 590-591, 761 -774.
AMA StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, José María Díaz-Palmero, Juan De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo. A comparative study of fire weather indices in a semiarid south-eastern Europe region. Case of study: Murcia (Spain). Science of The Total Environment. 2017; 590-591 ():761-774.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; José María Díaz-Palmero; Juan De Dios Cabezas-Cerezo. 2017. "A comparative study of fire weather indices in a semiarid south-eastern Europe region. Case of study: Murcia (Spain)." Science of The Total Environment 590-591, no. : 761-774.
The design of hydraulic structures and flood risk management is often based on instantaneous peak flow (IPF). However, available flow time series with high temporal resolution are scarce and of limited length. A correct estimation of the IPF is crucial to reducing the consequences derived from flash floods, especially in Mediterranean countries. In this study, empirical methods to estimate the IPF based on maximum mean daily flow (MMDF), artificial neural networks (ANN), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) have been compared. These methods have been applied in 14 different streamflow gauge stations covering the diversity of flashiness conditions found in Peninsular Spain. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) have been used as evaluation criteria. The results show that: (1) the Fuller equation and its regionalization is more accurate and has lower error compared with other empirical methods; and (2) ANFIS has demonstrated a superior ability to estimate IPF compared to any empirical formula.
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velazquez; José María Cecilia. Estimation of Instantaneous Peak Flow Using Machine-Learning Models and Empirical Formula in Peninsular Spain. Water 2017, 9, 347 .
AMA StylePatricia Jimeno-Sáez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, David Pulido-Velazquez, José María Cecilia. Estimation of Instantaneous Peak Flow Using Machine-Learning Models and Empirical Formula in Peninsular Spain. Water. 2017; 9 (5):347.
Chicago/Turabian StylePatricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velazquez; José María Cecilia. 2017. "Estimation of Instantaneous Peak Flow Using Machine-Learning Models and Empirical Formula in Peninsular Spain." Water 9, no. 5: 347.
Droughts and climate change in regions with profitable irrigated agriculture will impact groundwater resources with associated direct and indirect impacts. In the integrated water resource management (IWRM), managed aquifer recharge (MAR) offers efficient solutions to protect, conserve, and ensure survival of aquifers and associated ecosystems, as the Water Framework Directive requires. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the socio-economic feasibility of the MAR system in the overexploited Boquerón aquifer in Hellín (Albacete, Spain) under climate change and varying irrigation demand conditions. To assess, in monetary terms, the profitability of the MAR system, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been carried out. The results for the period 2020–2050 showed that the most favourable situations would be scenarios involving artificial recharge, in which future irrigation demand remains at the present level or falls below 10% of the current irrigation surface, as these scenarios generated an internal rate of return of between 53% and 57%. Additionally, the regeneration of the habitat will take between 5 and 9 years. Thus, the IWRM with artificial recharge will guarantee the sustainability of irrigation of the agricultural lands of Hellín and will achieve water balance even in severe climate change conditions.
Carmen Rupérez-Moreno; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Pilar Flores-Asenjo; Carmen Paz-Aparicio. Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Managed Aquifer Recharge System for Irrigation under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain. Water 2017, 9, 343 .
AMA StyleCarmen Rupérez-Moreno, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, Javier Senent-Aparicio, Pilar Flores-Asenjo, Carmen Paz-Aparicio. Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Managed Aquifer Recharge System for Irrigation under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain. Water. 2017; 9 (5):343.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCarmen Rupérez-Moreno; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Pilar Flores-Asenjo; Carmen Paz-Aparicio. 2017. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Managed Aquifer Recharge System for Irrigation under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain." Water 9, no. 5: 343.
The Segura River Basin is one of the most water-stressed basins in Mediterranean Europe. If we add to the actual situation that most climate change projections forecast important decreases in water resource availability in the Mediterranean region, the situation will become totally unsustainable. This study assessed the impact of climate change in the headwaters of the Segura River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data from two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the medium term (2041–2070) and the long term (2071–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction was performed using the distribution mapping approach. The fuzzy TOPSIS technique was applied to rank a set of nine GCM–RCM combinations, choosing the climate models with a higher relative closeness. The study results show that the SWAT performed satisfactorily for both calibration (NSE = 0.80) and validation (NSE = 0.77) periods. Comparing the long-term and baseline (1971–2000) periods, precipitation showed a negative trend between 6% and 32%, whereas projected annual mean temperatures demonstrated an estimated increase of 1.5–3.3 °C. Water resources were estimated to experience a decrease of 2%–54%. These findings provide local water management authorities with very useful information in the face of climate change.
Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Jesús Carrillo-García; Jesús Soto. Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain). Water 2017, 9, 149 .
AMA StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, Jesús Carrillo-García, Jesús Soto. Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain). Water. 2017; 9 (2):149.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Jesús Carrillo-García; Jesús Soto. 2017. "Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)." Water 9, no. 2: 149.
In recent years, many researchers have devoted their efforts to finding an objective measurement of sustainability by developing evaluation tools based on sustainability indices. These indexes not only reveal the current state of water resources in a given area but also contribute to the development and implementation of effective sustainable water management and decision-making. The great disadvantage of these indices is that for proper application, a number of variables are necessary and they are usually not available in data-scarce aquifers. This study was designed to evaluate sustainability in groundwater resource management in an aquifer in a semiarid zone, using readily available parameters and under a pressure-state-response framework. This methodology has been applied to an aquifer in Southeast Spain with satisfactory results, since the indicators that were evaluated reflect the two main problems that hinder sustainable resource management: the contamination of groundwater by intensive local farming; and the need for external inputs from other basins to alleviate water stress. Therefore, the methodology used can be replicated in other areas with similar characteristics to those of the case study.
Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; José Luis García-Aróstegui; Alicia Bielsa-Artero; Juan Carlos Domingo-Pinillos. Evaluating Groundwater Management Sustainability under Limited Data Availability in Semiarid Zones. Water 2015, 7, 4305 -4322.
AMA StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio, Julio Pérez-Sánchez, José Luis García-Aróstegui, Alicia Bielsa-Artero, Juan Carlos Domingo-Pinillos. Evaluating Groundwater Management Sustainability under Limited Data Availability in Semiarid Zones. Water. 2015; 7 (12):4305-4322.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJavier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; José Luis García-Aróstegui; Alicia Bielsa-Artero; Juan Carlos Domingo-Pinillos. 2015. "Evaluating Groundwater Management Sustainability under Limited Data Availability in Semiarid Zones." Water 7, no. 12: 4305-4322.
Associated with the vision of balanced, sustainable resource management, the end of the 20th century witnessed the paradigm of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), whose application was based on considering the river basin as an operating unit. The last decade has seen a preference for a scaled abstraction of this focus in which the administrative and physical limits of the resource that is provided can be considered as water management subunits, albeit ever dependent on and under the supervision of the river basin authority to which it belongs. This article shows the advantages of applying specific IWRM-based measures that can be implemented on a local scale. In the case under study (a municipality in south-eastern Spain) and based on the possibilities it offered, consideration has been given to joint management of the available water resources as feasible from the technical, economic, social and environmental points of view. The project compares two 20-year scenarios to reflect the consequences of incorporating the overexploited aquifer into the local water resources management scheme. Scenario 1 represents the existing non-joint water management, while Scenario 2 considers conjoint water management of surface and groundwater resources, examining variables related to climatic change and economic cycles. The simulations performed demonstrate that local scale management appears to be a feasible solution for semiarid towns and villages: it increases supply compared to current management and guarantees that demand is met for all the irrigation communities and indicates an almost immediate widespread recovery of the water table, even under scenarios with increased demand and a moderate fall in water resources.
Julio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio. Integrated water resources management on a local scale: a challenge for the user community—a case study in Southern Spain. Environmental Earth Sciences 2015, 74, 6097 -6109.
AMA StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez, Javier Senent-Aparicio. Integrated water resources management on a local scale: a challenge for the user community—a case study in Southern Spain. Environmental Earth Sciences. 2015; 74 (7):6097-6109.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulio Pérez-Sánchez; Javier Senent-Aparicio. 2015. "Integrated water resources management on a local scale: a challenge for the user community—a case study in Southern Spain." Environmental Earth Sciences 74, no. 7: 6097-6109.