• The new dairy policies will reduce low-income households consumption of milk. • The increase in milk price will decrease milk allocation and consumption by infants. • Households revealed decisions making are close to the best-worst experiment results. • Infants food substitutes to milk are generally of lower nutritional value.

Tunisia, like most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, has limited renewable water resources and is classified as a water stress country. The effects of climate change are exacerbating the situation. The agricultural sector is the main consumer (80%) of blue water reserves. In this study, to better understand the factors that influence the food water footprint of Tunisian consumers, we used a multiple linear regression model (MLR) to analyze data from 4853 households. The innovation in this paper consists of integrating effects of socio-economic, demographic, and geographic trends on the food consumption water footprint into the assessment of water and food security. The model results showed that regional variations in food choices meant large differences in water footprints, as hypothesized. Residents of big cities are more likely to have a large water footprint. Significant variability in water footprints, due to different food consumption patterns and socio-demographic characteristics, was also noted. Food waste is also one of the determining factors of households with a high water footprint. This study provides a new perspective on the water footprint of food consumption using “household” level data. These dietary water footprint estimates can be used to assess potential water demand scenarios as food consumption patterns change. Analysis at the geographic and socio-demographic levels helps to inform policy makers by identifying realistic dietary changes.

Designing interventions to support the safe development of rapidly growing livestock value chains in sub-Saharan Africa requires a clear understanding of consumer demands. This study aimed to determine purchase patterns, consumers' preferences, and willingness to pay for safe pork attributes; specifically, the presence of a veterinary inspection stamp and the cleanliness of the butchery. A discrete choice experiment-based survey was used to investigate the purchasing behavior of 401 pork consumers: 253 buying raw pork for household consumption, and 148 buying cooked pork for out-of-home consumption. The study findings indicate that the average quantity of pork purchased by consumers was approximately 0.4 Kg per transaction, with the majority of consumers making several purchases per week. The average price per Kg of pork was KES 310 (Approx. 2.60 USD) at the time of the study. Data from the choice experiment showed that consumers were willing to pay a price premium of KES 245 (Approx. 2.1 USD) and KES 164 (Approx. 1.4 USD) per Kg for evidence of better veterinary meat inspection and higher butchery hygiene respectively; further, these were the two most important attributes they considered while making a pork purchase decision. These findings highlight the potential to leverage consumers' willingness to pay to improve the food safety within pork value chains in this context. Investing to increase consumer awareness on food safety issues should be considered to generate an effective market demand, especially in rural areas with relatively lower literacy levels.

Population growth and rising affluence increase the demand for agricultural commodities. Associated growth in production increases dependency on natural resources in countries that attempt to meet part or all of the new demand locally. This study assesses the impact of changing meat and milk production on natural resource use in Kenya under three plausible scenarios of socio-economic development, namely Business-As-Usual (BAU), Sustainable Development (SDP) and Kenya Vision 2030 (V2030) scenarios. The IMPACT model is used to estimate projected cattle, sheep, goats and camel production parameters for meat and milk. The BAU and SDP represent standard scenarios for Kenya of a global economic model, IMPACT, while V2030 incorporates in the model features specific to Kenya's medium-term national development plan. We use calculations of water footprint and land footprint as resource use indicators to quantify the anticipated appropriation of water and land resources for meat and milk production and trade by 2040. Though camel dairy production numbers increase the most by quadrupling between 2005 and 2040, it is cattle dairy production that significantly determined gains in production between the scenarios. Productivity gains under the SDP scenario does not match the investments made thereby leading to only slightly better values for water and land productivity than those achieved under the BAU scenario. Relative to the BAU scenario, improvement in land productivity under the V2030 scenario is the most dramatic for shoat milk production in the arid and semi-arid systems but the least marked for cattle milk production in the humid system. By quantifying water and land productivity across heterogenous production systems, our findings can aid decision-makers in Kenya and other developing countries to understand the implications of strategies aimed at increasing domestic agricultural and livestock production on water and land resources both locally and through trade with other countries.

A double bounded contingent valuation (CV) model was used to assess the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for vaccination of cattle against RVF in a sample of 276 livestock producers in Murang'a, Laikipia and Kwale Counties. While the level of awareness about the disease was rather low, nearly all respondents expressed willingness to have their animals vaccinated against the disease. Average WTP was highest in Murang'a (mean = US$1.44) where farmers practice dairy farming using exotic breeds of cattle compared to Laikipia (mean = US$1.24), where both exotic dairy and local breeds of cattle together with their crosses are kept, and Kwale (mean = US$1.01) where local breeds are predominantly kept. These average levels of WTP were 17%-67% higher than the estimated cost incurred by government (US$0.86 per head of cattle) in the most recent vaccination campaign conducted during RVF outbreak. Surprisingly, WTP tended to be lower among producers with many heads of cattle probably because the large herds would translate to bigger total costs. The study recommended support for sensitization campaigns about RVF and its control measures. While the high average levels of WTP implies potential for commercialization of vaccination against RVF, there may be need for price differentiation by region to ensure that sufficiently high numbers of producers vaccinate their animals to prevent outbreaks.