An understanding of the interactions between climate change and forest structure on tree growth are needed for decision making in forest conservation and management. In this paper, we investigated the relative contribution of tree features and stand structure on Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) radial growth in forests that have experienced heavy grazing and logging in the past. Dendrochronological methods were applied to quantify patterns in basal-area increment and drought sensitivity of Atlas cedar in the Middle Atlas, northern Morocco. We estimated the tree-to-tree competition intensity and quantified the structure in Atlas cedar stands with contrasting tree density, age, and decline symptoms. The relative contribution of tree age and size and stand structure to Atlas cedar growth decline was estimated by variance partitioning using partial-redundancy analyses. Recurrent drought events and temperature increases have been identified from local climate records since the 1970s. We detected consistent growth declines and increased drought sensitivity in Atlas cedar across all sites since the early 1980s. Specifically, we determined that previous growth rates and tree age were the strongest tree features, while Quercus rotundifolia basal area was the strongest stand structure measure related to Atlas cedar decline. As a result, we suggest that Atlas cedar forests that have experienced severe drought in combination with grazing and logging may be in the process of shifting dominance toward more drought-tolerant species such as Q. rotundifolia.

Aim of study: Understanding small-scale patterns caused by stochastic factors or community interactions driving forest structure and diversity of Moroccan fir Abies marocana Trab.Area of study: Talassemtane fir forest, Talassemtane National Park, Rif Mountains, northern Morocco.Material and methods: Eight plots representative of the structural variability of A. marocana forests were selected, and all tree individuals with diameter at breast height (dbh) ≥2 cm were mapped and measured. We performed four types of spatial point pattern analyses: (1) Univariate analyses to explore the overall trees spatial pattern, (2) bivariate analyses to assess the spatial relationship between juveniles and A. marocana adults, (3) correlation between tree sizes (dbh) and distance between points pairs using the univariate mark correlation function, and (4) random labeling analyses between dominant and suppressed Moroccan fir individuals to assess competition patterns.Main results: We found a strong spatial aggregation of fir individuals and a positive intraspecific association between juveniles and adult trees. However, there were weak but significant distance-dependent effect on tree size and density-dependent effect on suppression pattern.Research highlights: Shade-tolerance, seed dispersal and/or microsite heterogeneity might play important roles in the observed fir patterns. Our results provide a basic knowledge on within-stand Moroccan fir spatial distribution, with implications for adaptive management of these relic forests, and prompting to further research to test advanced hypotheses.Additional key words: Moroccan fir; Talassemtane National Park; Rif forest; Spatial analysis; summary statistics; facilitation; aggregation.Abbreviations used: MF (Moroccan fir); Talassemtane National Park (TNP); dbh (diameter at breast height); Univariate pair-correlation function (g(r)); Heterogeneous Poisson (HP); Bivariate pair-correlation function (g12(r)); Univariate mark correlation function (kmm(r)), Mark connection function (p12(r)).

Fire is a concern for the sustainability of dry forests such as those of the Mediterranean region, especially under warming climate and high human use. We used data derived from Landsat and MODIS sensors to assess forest changes in the Talassemtane National Park (TNP) in North Africa from 2003–2018. The Talassemtane National Park is a protected area in northern Morocco, a biodiverse, mountainous region with endemic species of concern such as the Moroccan fir (Abies marocana) and Barbary macaque (Macaca sylvanus). To help the managers of the TNP better understand how the forest has been impacted by fire vs. other disturbances, we combined information from remotely derived datasets. The Hansen Global Forest Change (GFC) data are a global resource providing annual forest change, but without specifying the causes of change. We compared the GFC data to MODIS wildfire data from Andela’s Global Fire Atlas (GFA), a new global tool to identify fire locations and progression. We also analyzed surface reflectance-corrected Landsat imagery to calculate fire severity and vegetation death using Relative Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio analysis (RdNBR). In the park, GFC data showed a net loss of 1695 ha over 16 years, corresponding to an approximately 0.3% annual loss of forest. The GFA identified nine large fires that covered 4440 ha in the study period, coinciding with 833 ha of forest loss in the same period. Within these fires, detailed image analysis showed that GFA fire boundaries were approximately correct, providing the first quantitative test of GFA accuracy outside North America. High-severity fire, as determined by RdNBR analysis, made up about 32% of burned area. Overall, the GFA was validated as a useful management tool with only one non-detected wildfire in the study period; wildfires were linked to approximately 49% of the forest loss. This information helps managers develop conservation strategies based on reliable data about forest threats.

Background Site-specific data about fire regimes and ecosystem attributes is valuable for developing conservation strategies. Aims We determined fire history linked to forest attributes in Talassemtane National Park, Morocco, which conserves rare species at the northern tip of Africa. Methods We sampled fire-scarred conifers at three high-elevation forest sites, along with forest measurements. Key results Surface fires recurred frequently at all sites (mean fire intervals 15–23 years) over the period 1879–2018, burning primarily in the late summer. Fires were not highly synchronous among sites and were not climate-driven, suggesting a pattern of human ignitions at times when burning was safe. Stands were dominated by large and old Pinus and Abies trees that had survived numerous surface fires. Sites where fires continued to the present had relatively open structure with few ladder fuels. The site where 36 years had passed since the last fire had a dense mid-storey of sprouting Quercus trees. Conclusions Fire regimes and forest attributes were linked with fire-quiescent periods associated with high tree density, creating ladder fuels that could support crown fire. Implications Maintaining frequent-fire regimes in these forests could provide benefits for reducing fuels, avoiding undesired fires under extreme conditions, and supporting adaptation to warmer climate.