Summary: Many species are adversely affected by human activities at large spatial scales and their conservation requires detailed information on distributions. Intensive ground surveys cannot keep pace with the rate of land‐use change over large areas and new methods are needed for regional‐scale mapping. We present predictive models for great bustards in central Spain based on readily available advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery combined with mapped features in the form of geographic information system (GIS) data layers. As AVHRR imagery is coarse‐grained, we used a 12‐month time series to improve the definition of habitat types. The GIS data comprised measures of proximity to features likely to cause disturbance and a digital terrain model to allow for preference for certain topographies. We used logistic regression to model the above data, including an autologistic term to account for spatial autocorrelation. The results from models were combined using Bayesian integration, and model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristics plots. Sites occupied by bustards had significantly lower densities of roads, buildings, railways and rivers than randomly selected survey points. Bustards also occurred within a narrower range of elevations and at locations with significantly less variable terrain. Logistic regression analysis showed that roads, buildings, rivers and terrain all contributed significantly to the difference between occupied and random sites. The Bayesian integrated probability model showed an excellent agreement with the original census data and predicted suitable areas not presently occupied. The great bustard's distribution is highly fragmented and vacant habitat patches may occur for a variety of reasons, including the species’ very strong fidelity to traditional sites through conspecific attraction. This may limit recolonization of previously occupied sites. We conclude that AVHRR satellite imagery and GIS data sets have potential to map distributions at large spatial scales and could be applied to other species. While models based on imagery alone can provide accurate predictions of bustard habitats at some spatial scales, terrain and human influence are also significant predictors and are needed for finer scale modelling.

This is an article from the journal, Remote Sensing of Environment [© Elsevier]. The definitive version is available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00344257The impact of mineral aerosol (dust) in the Earth's system depends on particle characteristics which are initially determined by the terrestrial sources from which the sediments are entrained. Remote sensing is an established method for the detection and mapping of dust events, and has recently been used to identify dust source locations with varying degrees of success. This paper compares and evaluates five principal methods, using MODIS Level 1B and MODIS Level 2 aerosol data, to: (a) differentiate dust (mineral aerosol) from non-dust, and (2) determine the extent to which they enable the source of the dust to be discerned. The five MODIS L1B methods used here are: (1) un-processed false colour composite (FCC), (2) brightness temperature difference, (3) Ackerman's (1997: J.Geophys. Res., 102, 17069–17080) procedure, (4) Miller's (2003:Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 20, art.no.2071) dust enhancement algorithm and (5) Roskovensky and Liou's (2005: Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L12809) dust differentiation algorithm; the aerosol product is MODIS Deep Blue (Hsu et al., 2004: IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sensing, 42, 557–569), which is optimised for use over bright surfaces (i.e. deserts). These are applied to four significant dust events from the Lake Eyre Basin, Australia. OMI AI was also examined for each event to provide an independent assessment of dust presence and plume location. All of the techniques were successful in detecting dust when compared to FCCs, but the most effective technique for source determination varied from event to event depending on factors such as cloud cover, dust plume mineralogy and surface reflectance. Significantly, to optimise dust detection using the MODIS L1B approaches, the recommended dust/non-dust thresholds had to be considerably adjusted on an event by event basis. MODIS L2 aerosol data retrievals were also found to vary in quality significantly between events; being affected in particular by cloud masking difficulties. In general, we find that OMI AI and MODIS AQUA L1B and L2 data are complementary; the former are ideal for initial dust detection, the latter can be used to both identify plumes and sources at high spatial resolution. Overall, approaches using brightness temperature difference (BT10–11) are the most consistently reliable technique for dust source identification in the Lake Eyre Basin. One reason for this is that this enclosed basin contains multiple dust sources with contrasting geochemical signatures. In this instance, BTD data are not affected significantly by perturbations in dust mineralogy. However, the other algorithms tested (including MODIS Deep Blue) were all influenced by ground surface reflectance or dust mineralogy; making it impossible to use one single MODIS L1B or L2 data type for all events (or even for a single multiple-plume event). There is, however, considerable potential to exploit this anomaly, and to use dust detection algorithms to obtain information about dust mineralogy

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is the largest single contributor to eustatic sea level and is amplified by the growth of pigmented algae on the ice surface, which increases solar radiation absorption. This biological albedo-reducing effect and its impact upon sea level rise has not previously been quantified. Here, we combine field spectroscopy with a radiative-transfer model, supervised classification of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and satellite remote-sensing data, and runoff modelling to calculate biologically driven ice surface ablation. We demonstrate that algal growth led to an additional 4.4–6.0 Gt of runoff from bare ice in the south-western sector of the GrIS in summer 2017, representing 10 %–13 % of the total. In localized patches with high biomass accumulation, algae accelerated melting by up to 26.15±3.77 % (standard error, SE). The year 2017 was a high-albedo year, so we also extended our analysis to the particularly low-albedo 2016 melt season. The runoff from the south-western bare-ice zone attributed to algae was much higher in 2016 at 8.8–12.2 Gt, although the proportion of the total runoff contributed by algae was similar at 9 %–13 %. Across a 10 000 km² area around our field site, algae covered similar proportions of the exposed bare ice zone in both years (57.99 % in 2016 and 58.89 % in 2017), but more of the algal ice was classed as “high biomass” in 2016 (8.35 %) than 2017 (2.54 %). This interannual comparison demonstrates a positive feedback where more widespread, higher-biomass algal blooms are expected to form in high-melt years where the winter snowpack retreats further and earlier, providing a larger area for bloom development and also enhancing the provision of nutrients and liquid water liberated from melting ice. Our analysis confirms the importance of this biological albedo feedback and that its omission from predictive models leads to the systematic underestimation of Greenland's future sea level contribution, especially because both the bare-ice zones available for algal colonization and the length of the biological growth season are set to expand in the future.