International audienceInduced seismicity from anthropogenic sources can be a significant nuisance to a local population and, in extreme cases, can lead to damage to vulnerable structures. One type of induced seismicity that is of particular recent concern, and which in some cases is a limit on development of a potentially-important clean energy source, is that associated with geothermal power production. A key requirement for the accurate assessment of seismic hazard (and eventually risk) is a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE), predicting the level of earthquake shaking (in terms of, for example, peak ground acceleration) given an earthquake of a certain magnitude at a particular distance. For geothermal-related seismicity, practically no such models currently exist and consequently the evaluation of seismic hazard in the vicinity of geothermal power plants is associated with high uncertainty. Various ground-motion datasets of induced and natural seismicity (from Basel, Geysers, Hengill, Roswinkel, Soultz and Voerendaal) were compiled and processed and the moment magnitudes for all events recomputed homogeneously. These data are used to show that ground motions from induced and natural earthquakes cannot be statistically distinguished. Empirical GMPEs are derived from these data and it is shown that they have similar characteristics to some recent GMPEs for natural and mining-related seismicity but the standard deviations are higher. Subsequently stochastic models, to account for epistemic uncertainties, are developed based on a single corner frequency and with parameters constrained by the available data. Predicted ground motions from these models are fitted with functional forms to obtain easy-to-use GMPEs. These are associated with standard deviations derived from the empirical data to characterize the aleatory variability. As an example, we demonstrate the potential use of these models using data from Campi Flegrei

Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy) is a densely inhabited area and suffered several unrest episodes in the last centuries. The dynamic of the caldera is highly debated because of conflicting interpretations. Here we present a detailed reconstruction of the Campi Flegrei structure obtained using the microseismicity recorded during the 1984 unrest. Enhanced Seismic Tomography models obtained with these data allow us describing seismic velocities, attenuation, and scattering patterns. Results show: (1) a plumbing system with a diameter of 1 km located between 2.3 km and 4 km depth (2) a 0.5 km thick caprock located at 2 km depth interpreted as the main structure regulating the fluid interchange between deep and shallow sectors of the caldera, (3) the shape and volume of a shallow reservoir beneath the city of Pozzuoli; this reservoir played a key role during the 1982–1984 unrest, (4) several small reservoirs beneath the main craters of the caldera. All these features fit into the debated question on magmatic or hydrothermal mechanism driving the caldera deformation resulting of crucial importance to allow a better assessment of the hazard.

The knowledge of the dynamic of the Campi Flegrei calderic system is a primary goal to mitigate the volcanic risk in one of the most densely populated volcanic areas in the world. From 1950 to 1990 Campi Flegrei suffered three bradyseismic crises with a total uplift of 4.3 m. After 20 years of subsidence, the uplift started again in 2005 accompained by a low increment of the seismicity rate. In 2012 an increment in the seismic energy release and a variation in the gas composition of the fumaroles of Solfatara (in the central area of the caldera) were recorded. Since then, a slow and progressive increase in phenomena continued until today. We analyze the INGV - Osservatorio Vesuviano seismic catalogue of Campi Flegrei from 2000 to 2020 in order to look for any variation in the seismic parameters and compare them with geochemical monitored ones. A remarkable correlation between independent variables of earthquake cumulative number, CO/CO₂ values and vertical ground deformation reveals a likely common origin. Moreover the correlation between all the variables here analysed enlightens that the same origin can cause the temporal behavior of all these variables. We interpret the seismological, geochemical and geodetic observable in terms of the injection of magmatic fluids into the hydrothermal system or its pressurization.

The Campi Flegrei caldera is considered the most dangerous volcano in Europe and is currently in a new phase of unrest (started in 2000 and still ongoing) that has persisted intermittently for several decades (main crisis occurred from 1950 to 1952, 1970–1972, and 1982–1984). Here, by combining the petrological and geochemical data collected in recent decades with numerical simulations, we place new constraints on the source(s) of the current dynamics of the volcano. In particular, we show that the measured (N₂‐He‐CO₂) geochemical changes at the fumaroles of Solfatara hydrothermal site are the result of massive (about 3 km³) magma degassing in the deep portion (≥200 MPa, 8 km of depth) of the plumbing system. This degassing mechanism would be able to flood the overlying hydrothermal system with hot gas, thus heating and fracturing the upper crust inducing shallow seismicity and deformation. This implies that the deep magma transfer process (≥8 km) has been decoupled from the source of deformation and seismicity, localized in the first kilometers (0–4 km) of caldera‐filling rocks. This information on magma transfer depth can have important implications for defining the best monitoring strategies and for forecasting a future eruption. Finally, this study highlights how petrological and geochemical data allow us to explore the dynamics of the deep portion of the plumbing system and thus trace the occurrence of recharge episodes, in a portion of the ductile lower crust where magma transfer occurs in the absence of earthquakes.