Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is often employed to inform decision makers about the desirability of transport infrastructure investment options. One of the main limitations of traditional CBA approaches is that they do not provide a dynamic view that explicitly illustrates the cost and benefit relationships between component entities over time. This paper addresses this issue by describing a System Dynamics (SD) approach that can perform transport infrastructure CBA through the application of systems thinking to develop a causal-loop model that can subsequently be operationalised into an executable stock-and-flow model. Execution of this model readily enables sensitivity analysis of infrastructure investment options and visualisation of the cost-benefit behaviour of each variant over time. The utility of the approach is illustrated through a case study, the Co Chien Bridge project in Vietnam, using a model that incorporates conventional economic metrics and factors that measure indirect project benefits, such as impact on gross domestic product, unemployment rate, and total taxes gained from affected economic sectors.

This paper traverses the domains of leadership and decision-making within various types of systems with different levels of complexity. The article presents some background about both leadership and decision-making, and then explores the concept of leadership decision-making and some of the factors involved. The paper then reviews complex systems and provides examples to differentiate complex systems from other systems. Finally, these strands are brought together with a consideration of leadership decision-making in complex systems and presentation of a framework to assist managers faced with decision-making in complexity, based on data collected in a survey. The aim and practical contribution of this paper is to improve the outcomes of leadership decision-making within complex systems, based upon the findings and on a decision aid model derived from them. The paper, therefore, should help people in real life and leaders within organizational settings to improve their decision-making effectiveness within the ever-increasing range of complex situations which are now widely encountered.

Making decisions is a key task for leaders and managers. Senior leaders are currently exposed to increasing amounts of data which they must process quickly in our current dynamic world. Complex factors in the business world are not always best approached through an analytical framework. Using tacit knowledge gained through intuition can enable a more holistic understanding of the deep nature of today’s problems. This paper takes an expansive view of decision-making with intuition right at the centre and canvasses understandings of intuition arising from philosophy, psychology, Western and Eastern beliefs; and proposes a model that relates intuition to other problem-solving approaches. The paper presents the results of interviews with senior leaders who must make difficult decisions in complex turbulent environments. The interview schedule is based on questions raised in a prior literature search concerning the relationship between intuition and analysis in complexity decision-making and problem-solving, the usefulness to this group of respondents, the possibilities of combining both approaches and any conflict arising from that combination, and understandings of the concept of intuition by these respondents. The resultant model presents a visual description of a process that moves from exterior assessment achieved via sensing and analysis, through to deeper understandings and a more holistic discernment gained through intuition. The model has the potential to assist leaders faced with difficult-to-solve problems in providing a better understanding of the steps involved in tackling problems of increasing levels of complexity.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the major risks of joint venture contractor selection for infrastructure project implementation in Vietnam, and to explore the relationship between risk factors used for risk ranking and mitigation. From a literature review, together with expert group discussion, a list of potential risk factors was identified and used for questionnaire survey design. In this study, 100 survey responses were received from professional practitioners in Vietnam used to investigate their perceptions regarding the probability of risk occurrence and the severity of risk impacts on contractor joint venture selection. Factor analysis was performed based on a total of 32 main risk factors identified. Results reveal that seven main risk factors were extracted as follows: financial and economic risk, professional competence risk, joint venture organizational risk, joint venture legal risk, construction implementation collaboration risk, natural environment impact and pandemic risk, and construction site supervision risk. This study enables us to understand latent risk from a practitioner’s viewpoint. The findings of this study are beneficial for both the construction contractors involved in the joint venture form and the decision-makers who establish contractor selection strategies for complicated infrastructure projects in the context of developing countries.