Marga Goris

Dr. Marga Goris

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

10Years (2017-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

View All Publications
24 October 2017 in PLOS ONE
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
EREnte J.J. Rood
Ente J.J. Rood
MGMarga Goris
Marga Goris
RPRoan Pijnacker
Roan Pijnacker
MBMirjam I. Bakker
Mirjam I. Bakker
RHRudy A. Hartskeerl
Rudy A. Hartskeerl
Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995–2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR) explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas.