Leptospirosis is a globally emerging zoonotic disease, associated with various climatic, biotic and abiotic factors. Mapping and quantifying geographical variations in the occurrence of leptospirosis and the surrounding environment offer innovative methods to study disease transmission and to identify associations between the disease and the environment. This study aims to investigate geographic variations in leptospirosis incidence in the Netherlands and to identify associations with environmental factors driving the emergence of the disease. Individual case data derived over the period 1995–2012 in the Netherlands were geocoded and aggregated by municipality. Environmental covariate data were extracted for each municipality and stored in a spatial database. Spatial clusters were identified using kernel density estimations and quantified using local autocorrelation statistics. Associations between the incidence of leptospirosis and the local environment were determined using Simultaneous Autoregressive Models (SAR) explicitly modelling spatial dependence of the model residuals. Leptospirosis incidence rates were found to be spatially clustered, showing a marked spatial pattern. Fitting a spatial autoregressive model significantly improved model fit and revealed significant association between leptospirosis and the coverage of arable land, built up area, grassland and sabulous clay soils. The incidence of leptospirosis in the Netherlands could effectively be modelled using a combination of soil and land-use variables accounting for spatial dependence of incidence rates per municipality. The resulting spatially explicit risk predictions provide an important source of information which will benefit clinical awareness on potential leptospirosis infections in endemic areas.

Global efforts to end the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030 (SDG3.3) through improved TB case detection and treatment have not been effective to significantly reduce the global burden of the TB epidemic. This study presents an analytical framework to evaluate the use of TB case notification rates (CNR) to monitor and to evaluate TB under-detection and under-diagnoses in Bangladesh. Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) were calculated to assess the presence and scale of spatial clusters of TB CNR across 489 upazilas in Bangladesh. Simultaneous autoregressive models were fit to the data to identify associations between TB CNR and poverty, TB testing rates and retreatment rates. CNRs were found to be significantly spatially clustered, negatively correlated to poverty rates and positively associated to TB testing and retreatment rates. Comparing the observed pattern of CNR with model-standardized rates made it possible to identify areas where TB under-detection is likely to occur. These results suggest that TB CNR is an unreliable proxy for TB incidence. Spatial variations in TB case notifications and subnational variations in TB case detection should be considered when monitoring national TB trends. These results provide useful information to target and prioritize context specific interventions.

Background: Brucellosis is a major cause of infertility and reproductive failure in livestock. While cattle in the Eastern Indonesian archipelago suffers from reproductive problems information on bovine brucellosis in the region is fragmentary. The control of brucellosis requires a major and prolonged effort and confirmation of the infection by isolation with detailed knowledge of the spread of the infection is essential when planning a control program. Results: Serological investigation of Brucella infection in beef cattle tended under extensive farming conditions revealed a high seroprevalence (19.3%; 95% CI, 17–22) in the compliment fixation tests. The results of a rapid and simple field test correlated well with the Rose Bengal test (kappa, 0.917) and indicated an acceptable sensitivity (87.5%) and specificity (98.1%) compared with the complement fixation test. Reproductive failure was reported for 39.0% of the cows with a loss of calves due to abortion or early death amounting to 19.3%. Past reproductive failure did not, however, correlate with seropositivity in the complement fixation test (RP = 1.21; P = 0.847). B. abortus biovar 1 was freshly isolated from the hygromas of two cows and together with thirty banked isolates collected since 1990 from different parts of Sulawesi and Timor eight related genotypes could be distinguished with one genotype being identical to that of an isolate (BfR91) from Switzerland. The Indonesian genotypes formed together with BfR91 and one African and one North American isolate a distinct branch on the B. abortus biovar 1 dendogram. Conclusions: Bovine brucellosis appears to be widespread in the Eastern Indonesian archipelago and calls for urgent intervention. The fresh isolation of the pathogen together with the observed high seroprevalence demonstrates the presence and frequent exposure of cattle in the area to the pathogen. The application of a rapid and simple field test for brucellosis could be very useful for the quick screening of cattle at the pen side.

We conducted a house-to-house survey in the Mundri, Western Equatoria state of South Sudan to investigate the clinical characteristics, risk factors, access to treatment and perceptions about nodding syndrome (NS). In total, 224 NS cases with median age of seizure onset of 10 years were identified. Head nodding only was reported in 50 (22.3%) cases, and head nodding plus other types of seizures in 174 (77.7%) cases. Wasting, stunted growth, delayed sexual development and speech and behavioral abnormalities were observed in 17 (23.6%), 16 (22.2%), 9 (17.3%), 14 (19.4%) and 4 (5.6%) cases, respectively. The consumption of rat meat, but not other bushmeat was associated with an increased risk of NS (OR 9.31, 95% CI 1.27–406.51). Children with NS were more likely to have taken ivermectin in the last 5 years (OR 2.40, 95% CI 1.33–4.43). NS cases were less likely to share a bedroom with other children (OR 0.06, 95% CI 0.02–0.16) or adults (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.13–0.56). In conclusion, rat meat consumption is an unlikely risk factor for NS, and ivermectin intake was more common among NS cases than controls. Importantly, we documented that children with NS are stigmatized because of the misconception that NS is transmitted through direct contact.

Pakistan’s national tuberculosis control programme (NTP) is among the many programmes worldwide that value the importance of subnational tuberculosis (TB) burden estimates to support disease control efforts, but do not have reliable estimates. A hackathon was thus organised to solicit the development and comparison of several models for small area estimation of TB. The TB hackathon was launched in April 2019. Participating teams were requested to produce district-level estimates of bacteriologically positive TB prevalence among adults (over 15 years of age) for 2018. The NTP provided case-based data from their 2010–2011 TB prevalence survey, along with data relating to TB screening, testing and treatment for the period between 2010–2011 and 2018. Five teams submitted district-level TB prevalence estimates, methodological details and programming code. Although the geographical distribution of TB prevalence varied considerably across models, we identified several districts with consistently low notification-to-prevalence ratios. The hackathon highlighted the challenges of generating granular spatiotemporal TB prevalence forecasts based on a cross-sectional prevalence survey data and other data sources. Nevertheless, it provided a range of approaches to subnational disease modelling. The NTP’s use and plans for these outputs shows that, limitations notwithstanding, they can be valuable for programme planning.