Agriculture is the foundation of every country’s survival and development. This paper analyzes the interaction between the business environment, agricultural opening-up and high-quality agricultural economy from the perspective of China’s provinces. According to the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2009 to 2019, the empirical analysis was carried out based on the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. The results show that there is a quantitative interaction between China’s business environment, agricultural opening-up and high-quality agricultural development, and the long-term time effect is very obvious. Specifically, (1) the impact of the business environment and the high-quality development of agriculture on itself is decreasing year by year. The agriculture opening-up itself has a strong impact and has always maintained strong stability. (2) The high-quality development of the agricultural economy has little impact on the business environment and the opening of agriculture to the outside world, but it has a certain stable and continuous effect. It is particularly important that the agricultural opening-up has an increasingly strong effect on the business environment and the high-quality development of the agricultural economy as time progresses. Therefore, we must always adhere to the agriculture opening-up. The regional business environment and the agriculture opening-up can jointly promote the high-quality development of the agricultural economy. The research results can provide a basis and reference for the central and local governments to formulate relevant agricultural development policies and provide a reference for relevant agricultural economic entities and enterprises.

Taking the Tarim River basin as the research object, the water footprint was calculated based on the water footprint theory based on the relevant data from 2008 to 2019, and the water resource evaluation system was constructed to analyze the water footprint and water resource utilization of the Tarim River basin from three levels of structure, benefit, and ecology. Based on the water footprint theory, the annual water footprint and GDP of Tarim River basin were used to construct the Tapio decoupling model, and the decoupling type between water resources utilization and economic growth was obtained. The relationship between water resource utilization and economic growth in Tarim River was analyzed by combining the decoupling type evaluation and water footprint evaluation. The internal benefit is poor, and the external benefit is good; The degree of water resource shortage is on the rise, and the self-sufficiency rate of water resources is large. On the whole, the decoupling strength increases gradually. Decoupling strength has obvious industrial influence characteristics. Based on the above research conclusions, the sustainable economic and ecological development of the Tarim River basin can be realized from two aspects: reducing water footprint and strengthening decoupling intensity.

The estimation of ecosystem service value of water resources in the Tarim River Basin is of great significance for resource allocation management and ecological protection. However, there is still no unified and complete evaluation method for the ecosystem service value of inland rivers in China. Based on the perspective of the whole value chain, this study classified its ecological service functions and divided 11 sub-categories into four categories (supply, regulation, culture, and support) as evaluation indicators to carry out the quantitative evaluation. The results showed that the total value of ecosystem services in the Tarim River Basin in 2018 was USD 96.0262 billion (10⁹), and the values of regulating function, cultural function, supporting function, and supply function were, successively from high to low, as follows: USD 38.7938 × 10⁹, USD 36.7204 × 10⁹, USD 19.6209 × 10⁹, USD 0.8911 × 10⁹, among which the value of regulation function was dominant.

As the largest inland river basin in China, the Tarim River Basin is an important energy base and a key cotton-producing area in China. Therefore, the harmonious development of water resources, energy resources and cotton resources in the Tarim River Basin is a lifeline for stable quality and efficient development in this region. In this paper, the water–energy–cotton system of the Tarim River Basin is constructed and the weight of each index in the system is determined by using the entropy method. On this basis, the comprehensive development index of each subsystem and the water–energy–cotton system is calculated to measure the comprehensive development level of each system. Then, the coupling relationship between the three resources is quantitatively analyzed by using the coupling coordination degree model, and the mutual influence and strength of interaction between each system are calculated. Finally, a fractional regression model is established to analyze the factors affecting the coordinated development of the water–energy–cotton system in the Tarim River Basin. The results show that the comprehensive development index of the Tarim River Basin fluctuates obviously and the comprehensive development level of water resource systems is higher than that of the cotton resource and energy resource systems, and there are regional differences between each subsystem and the comprehensive development index of water–energy–cotton system. The coupling coordination degree of the basin is the primary coordination on the whole; however, there are significant differences in the coupling coordination degree of each region. In terms of influencing factors, the area of soil erosion treatment and water consumption in ecological environments both play a positive role in promoting the coupling coordination degree, and population size and GDP will hinder the development of the coupling coordination degree to a certain extent.

As a bridge and link between China and Central Asian countries, logistics infrastructure plays an important role in the process of forming a new development pattern of “dual circulation” and mutual promotion. Based on the panel data of Central Asian countries from 2010 to 2019, this paper uses random effect model to analyze the impact on the cross-border agricultural product supply chain between China and Central Asian countries. The results show that the logistics development level, railway transport connectivity, road transport connectivity, economic development level, market size, and common border of Central Asian countries positively affect the development level of the supply chain at different significance levels. Among them, the degree of railway transport connectivity has the greatest impact on the supply chain, followed by the common border, and then the level of logistics development. Moreover, the geographical advantage cannot be underestimated and it plays a positive role in promoting the high-quality development of cross-border agricultural product supply chain. China borders Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and the agricultural product import and export trade quota is significantly greater than that of other Central Asian countries. Based on the analysis, we propose to strengthen efforts to build a high-quality logistics system, build an efficient land transport network, and break through cross-border logistics congestion and difficulties.

At present, there are large number of articles on the impact of COVID-19, but there are only a few articles on the impact of COVID-19 and international agriculture. Agriculture product is different from other industrial products. If domestic food cannot be self-sufficient, it must be resolved through imports. This will inevitably face the dilemma between the opening up agriculture and the risk of importing COVID-19. This paper pioneered the use of entropy method, TOPSIS method and grey correlation analysis to predict the correlation between agricultural opening to the outside world and the input and spread of COVID-19. We use the correlation matrix quantifying the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and agricultural openness to deduce that there is a significant positive correlation between the flow of agricultural products caused by China’s agricultural opening-up and the spread of COVID-19, and use the proposed matrix to predict the spread risk of COVID-19 in China. The results of the empirical analysis can provide strong evidence for decision-makers to balance the risk of COVID-19 transmission with the opening of agricultural markets, and they can take this evidence into full consideration to formulate reasonable policies. This has great implications both for preventing the spread of COVID-19 and for agricultural opening-up.