As the largest inland river basin in China, the Tarim River Basin is an important energy base and a key cotton-producing area in China. Therefore, the harmonious development of water resources, energy resources and cotton resources in the Tarim River Basin is a lifeline for stable quality and efficient development in this region. In this paper, the water–energy–cotton system of the Tarim River Basin is constructed and the weight of each index in the system is determined by using the entropy method. On this basis, the comprehensive development index of each subsystem and the water–energy–cotton system is calculated to measure the comprehensive development level of each system. Then, the coupling relationship between the three resources is quantitatively analyzed by using the coupling coordination degree model, and the mutual influence and strength of interaction between each system are calculated. Finally, a fractional regression model is established to analyze the factors affecting the coordinated development of the water–energy–cotton system in the Tarim River Basin. The results show that the comprehensive development index of the Tarim River Basin fluctuates obviously and the comprehensive development level of water resource systems is higher than that of the cotton resource and energy resource systems, and there are regional differences between each subsystem and the comprehensive development index of water–energy–cotton system. The coupling coordination degree of the basin is the primary coordination on the whole; however, there are significant differences in the coupling coordination degree of each region. In terms of influencing factors, the area of soil erosion treatment and water consumption in ecological environments both play a positive role in promoting the coupling coordination degree, and population size and GDP will hinder the development of the coupling coordination degree to a certain extent.

The land system of state-owned farms in China is different from that in rural areas. Whether the land tenure of state-owned farms can play a role in protecting cultivated land is an important issue for the high-quality development of state-owned agriculture in China. This article develops a dynamic model to examine how land tenure influences farmers’ decisions on land improvement. It then analyzes this relationship based on cotton farmers’ household-level data from state-owned farms of Xinjiang in China. We applied methods that take into account the possible endogeneity of the land tenure. The results reveal that the stability of land tenure in the past will not affect the current behavior of farmers for they have a relatively stable expectation of current land tenure and a high degree of trust in the government and its policies. The intergenerational transfer of land tenure is not the key factor that affects farmers’ land conservation, and the relatively long-term duration of land tenure (possibly five years or more) during their careers is more important. Our findings also reveal that non-property factors, such as government intervention (e.g., technology promotion) that alleviates the limited rationality of farmers, cannot be ignored because they played a crucial role in past land improvement when land tenure was less stable.