Detecting latitudinal range shifts of forest trees in response to recent climate change is difficult because of slow demographic rates and limited dispersal but may be facilitated by spatially compressed climatic zones along elevation gradients in montane environments. We resurveyed forest plots established in 1964 along elevation transects in the Green Mountains (Vermont) to examine whether a shift had occurred in the location of the northern hardwood–boreal forest ecotone (NBE) from 1964 to 2004. We found a 19% increase in dominance of northern hardwoods from 70% in 1964 to 89% in 2004 in the lower half of the NBE. This shift was driven by a decrease (up to 76%) in boreal and increase (up to 16%) in northern hardwood basal area within the lower portions of the ecotone. We used aerial photographs and satellite imagery to estimate a 91- to 119-m upslope shift in the upper limits of the NBE from 1962 to 2005. The upward shift is consistent with regional climatic change during the same period; interpolating climate data to the NBE showed a 1.1°C increase in annual temperature, which would predict a 208-m upslope movement of the ecotone, along with a 34% increase in precipitation. The rapid upward movement of the NBE indicates little inertia to climatically induced range shifts in montane forests; the upslope shift may have been accelerated by high turnover in canopy trees that provided opportunities for ingrowth of lower elevation species. Our results indicate that high-elevation forests may be jeopardized by climate change sooner than anticipated.

The search for traits associated with plant invasiveness has yielded contradictory results, in part because most previous studies have failed to recognize that different traits are important at different stages along the introduction–naturalization–invasion continuum. Here we show that across six different habitat types in temperate Central Europe, naturalized non-invasive species are functionally similar to native species occurring in the same habitat type, but invasive species are different as they occupy the edge of the plant functional trait space represented in each habitat. This pattern was driven mainly by the greater average height of invasive species. These results suggest that the primary determinant of successful establishment of alien species in resident plant communities is environmental filtering, which is expressed in similar trait distributions. However, to become invasive, established alien species need to be different enough to occupy novel niche space, i.e. the edge of trait space.

Predicting the future trajectories of ecological systems is increasingly important as the magnitude of anthropogenic perturbation of the earth systems grows. We distinguish between two types of predi...

The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models used for global assessments tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985–2014 global average forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between TBMs. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to, and turnover rate of, leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time, and thus biomass change, for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Thirteen model-based hypotheses of controls on turnover time are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time, and thus its impacts on the future evolution of biomass carbon stocks across the world's forests, will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.