Green methanol and green ammonia produced by renewable electricity and electricity-based hydrogen become the backbone for a defossilised global chemical industry.

Methanol is a primary petrochemical globally. Green methanol, produced by Power-to-X technologies, is a potential solution to the defossilisation of the existing methanol supply and fossil fuel substitution. This study investigates the optimal system configuration for the lowest cost green e-methanol production from electrolytic hydrogen and atmospheric carbon dioxide based on an hourly power supply by hybrid PV-wind systems in a 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. Results suggest that, by 2030, solar PV will be the dominating electricity generation technology in most parts of the world. For a weighted average cost of capital of 7%, e-methanol could be produced for a cost range of 1200–1500, 600–680, 390–430 and 315–350 € per t_MeOH (189–236, 94–104, 61–68 and 50–54 € per MWh_MeOH,HHV) at the best sites in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, respectively. By 2040, the production cost of e-methanol will be within the market prices, suggesting that methanol supply could be defossilised at no extra cost for consumers. Conversely, e-methanol costs remain higher than the cost of natural gas-based methanol for fuel prices below 11 USD per MBtu. However, the introduction of up to 150 € per t CO₂ emissions cost could increase the cost of natural gas-based methanol to about 300 € per t_MeOH (47 € per MWh_MeOH,HHV), thus significantly improving the cost competitiveness of e-methanol in the market.

Concerns about climate change and increasing emission costs are drivers for new sources of fuels for Europe. Sustainable hydrocarbons can be produced synthetically by power-to-gas (PtG) and power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities, for sectors with low direct electrification such as aviation, heavy transportation and chemical industry. Hybrid PV–Wind power plants can harvest high solar and wind potentials of the Maghreb region to power these systems. This paper calculates the cost of these fuels for Europe, and presents a respective business case for the Maghreb region. Calculations are hourly resolved to find the least cost combination of technologies in a 0.45° × 0.45° spatial resolution. Results show that, for 7% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), renewable energy based synthetic natural gas (RE-SNG) and RE-diesel can be produced in 2030 for a minimum cost of 76 €/MWh_HHV (0.78 €/m³_SNG) and 88 €/MWh_HHV (0.85 €/L), respectively. While in 2040, these production costs can drop to 66 €/MWh_HHV (0.68 €/m³_SNG) and 83 €/MWh_HHV (0.80 €/L), respectively. Considering access to a WACC of 5% in a de-risking project, oxygen sales and CO₂ emissions costs, RE-diesel can reach fuel-parity at crude oil prices of 101 and 83 USD/bbl in 2030 and 2040, respectively. Thus, RE-synthetic fuels could be produced to answer fuel demand and remove environmental concerns in Europe at an affordable cost.