Decisions about whether to include oil in blue economy plans can be controversial but also fundamental to the ability of these plans to transform (or not) business-as-usual in the oceans. This paper examines (a) how oil is sometimes included and justified in blue economy planning when its development is at odds with climate commitments and the need for just transitions away from fossil fuels, and (b) how oil could be included in blue economy planning, or transitions to blue economies and just energy transitions away from oil. We examine how tensions between sustainability/climate commitments and oil development impacts are resolved in practice, specifically by analyzing a particular approach to the blue economy that focuses on technology and innovation. The overlap of oil with renewable energy, specifically through technology, has become an important part of recent ocean and blue economy narratives in oil-producing nations and illustrates the contradictions inherent in ocean development discourse. We draw specifically on the case of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), the only province in Canada with a mature offshore oil industry and thus the region most potentially impacted by decisions about whether to include oil in Canada’s blue economy. We argue that the blue economy approach to ocean governance being enacted in NL is currently being used as a form of legitimation for continuing the development of oil with no real transition plan away from it. Furthermore, we argue that blue economy plans must not only envision transitions to renewables but also explicitly and actively transitions away from oil to minimize environmental and social justice and equity issues at multiple scales. We end by highlighting some necessary conditions for how ocean economies that include oil can transition to sustainable and equitable blue economies.

Oceans have been gaining attention as a solution to climate change, including as sites of renewable energy development. Thus, oceans are becoming increasingly important sites of the energy transitions necessary for countries to meet climate change commitments. However, oil remains deeply entrenched in many places, often making it difficult to envision and enact different energy futures. This paper addresses the potential of strategic environmetal assessments (SEAs) to play a role in ocean-based energy transitions, specifically exploring whether they provide the information needed to support decisions related to energy transitions. By drawing on 69 offshore energy-related SEAs done in 11 countries between 2000 and 2021, this paper takes a broad view of ocean energy SEAs across time and space. In particular, we explore whether these SEAs consider climate change, include the broader context of climate goals, and assess alternatives. Findings varied by jurisdiction but in many cases, SEAs were done in ways that limited their potential to contribute to energy transition decisions. This is important because countries around the world have climate commitments and SEAs represent an opportunity – specifically one that uses existing and familiar tools – to help with long term planning around offshore energy that can help meet these commitments.