Kidney renal cell carcinoma (KIRC), which is the most common subtype of kidney cancer, has a poor prognosis and a high mortality rate. In this study, a multi-omics analysis is performed to build a multi-gene prognosis signature for KIRC. A combination of a DNA methylation analysis and a gene expression data analysis revealed 863 methylated differentially expressed genes (MDEGs). Seven MDEGs (BID, CCNF, DLX4, FAM72D, PYCR1, RUNX1, and TRIP13) were further screened using LASSO Cox regression and integrated into a prognostic risk score model. Then, KIRC patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. A univariate cox regression analysis revealed a significant association between the high-risk group and a poor prognosis. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve shows that the risk group performs well in predicting overall survival. Furthermore, the risk group is contained in the best multivariate model that was obtained by a multivariate stepwise analysis, which further confirms that the risk group can be used as a potential prognostic biomarker. In addition, a nomogram was established for the best multivariate model and shown to perform well in predicting the survival of KIRC patients. In summary, a seven-MDEG signature is a powerful prognosis factor for KIRC patients and may provide useful suggestions for their personalized therapy.

This study explores the response characteristics of runoff to the variability of meteorological factors. A modified vector autoregressive (VAR) model is proposed by combining time-varying parameters (TVP) and stochastic volatility (SV). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to estimate parameters. The TVP-SV-VAR model of daily runoff response to the variability of meteorological factors is established and applied to the daily runoff series from the Linjiacun hydrological station, Shaanxi Province, China. It is found that the posterior estimates of the stochastic volatility of the four variables fluctuate significantly with time, and the variance fluctuations of runoff and precipitation have strong synchronicity. The simultaneous impact of precipitation and evaporation on the pulse of runoff is close to 0. Runoff has a positive impulse response to precipitation, which decreases as the lag time increases, and a negative impulse response to temperature and evaporation with fluctuation. The response speed is precipitation > evaporation > temperature. The TVP-SV-VAR model avoids the hypothesis of homoscedasticity of variance and allows the variance to be randomly variable, which significantly improves the analysis performance. It provides theoretical support for the study of runoff response and water resource management under the conditions of climate change.