We aimed to elucidate the range of the incubation period in patients infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in comparison with the Alpha variant. Contact tracing data from three Japanese public health centers (total residents, 1.06 million) collected following the guidelines of the Infectious Diseases Control Law were reviewed for 1589 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases diagnosed in January 2022. We identified 77 eligible symptomatic patients for whom the date and setting of transmission were known, in the absence of any other probable routes of transmission. The observed incubation period was 3.03 ± 1.35 days (mean ± SDM). In the log-normal distribution, 5th, 50th and 95th percentile values were 1.3 days (95% CI: 1.0–1.6), 2.8 days (2.5–3.1) and 5.8 days (4.8–7.5), significantly shorter than among the 51 patients with the Alpha variant diagnosed in April and May in 2021 (4.94 days ± 2.19, 2.1 days (1.5–2.7), 4.5 days (4.0–5.1) and 9.6 days (7.4–13.0), p < 0.001). As this incubation period, mainly of sublineage BA.1, is even shorter than that in the Delta variant, it is thought to partially explain the variant replacement occurring in late 2021 to early 2022 in many countries.

This study investigated the household secondary attack rate (HSAR) of patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the omicron variant-dominant period. The HSAR of COVID-19 cases during the omicron variant-dominant period (4–20 January 2022) was calculated and compared with the delta variant-dominant period (20 August to 7 November 2021) in Itako, Japan. In Itako, all 47 and 119 samples tested during the omicron and delta variant-dominant periods were negative and positive, respectively, for the L452R mutation. We used a generalized estimating equation regression model. The HSAR was 31.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 27.7–36.2) for 456 household contacts during the omicron variant-dominant period; it was higher than that during the delta variant-dominant period (25.2%) (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.61, CI 1.13–2.28). During the omicron variant-dominant period, HSAR was lower for the household contacts of completely vaccinated index patients (27.3%) than for contacts of other index patients (41.2%) (vaccine effectiveness for infectee 0.43, 95% CI 0.16–0.62) and was significantly higher for female contacts than for male contacts (36.2% vs. 26.1%; aRR 1.29, 95% CI 1.01–1.65). The HSAR was significantly higher during the omicron variant-dominant period than the delta variant-dominant period. The vaccination of index patients might protect household contacts.

There is little information on relationships between indirect and direct protection by COVID-19 vaccination on close contacts of the vaccinees. Here, we assessed effect modification of direct-indirect action influencing the protective effects of vaccination. Secondary attack rates (SARs) in household contacts (n = 2422) depending on vaccination status of the index cases (n = 1112) with known vaccination history during the delta variant-dominant period (August 2-November 2, 2021) in two public health jurisdictions were calculated using multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess indirect protection by COVID-19 vaccination as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for SARs. The impact of the time of index case vaccination on indirect-direct protective effects was also assessed. Contacts of index cases receiving 2× COVID-19 vaccinations showed significantly lower SARs than contacts of unvaccinated index cases (aOR:0.48, 95 %CI = 0.32-0.74). Relative to contacts where neither index cases nor contacts themselves were vaccinated (0,0), those with (2,0), (0,2) and (2,2) had lower SARs (0.45, 95 %CI = 0.24-0.82, 0.24, 95 %CI = 0.17-0.032, 0.11, 95 %CI = 0.06-0.20, respectively. No significant interactions on the SARs regarding times of vaccination between index cases and household contacts were observed, indicating additive but not synergistic protection. The indirect protective effects of COVID-19 vaccination were attributed to an additive effect together with the direct effect on onward transmission in the household setting. These findings emphasize the importance of herd immunity by COVID-19 vaccination not only for unvaccinated but also vaccinated individuals.

To assess temporal changes to the risk of death in COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant, we calculated age-standardized case fatality rates (CFR) in patients aged ≥40 years over nine diagnostic periods (3 January to 28 August 2022) in ten Japanese prefectures (14.8 million residents). Among 552,581 study subjects, we found that there were 1836 fatalities during the isolation period (up to 28 days from date of onset). The highest age-standardized CFR (0.85%, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.78–0.92) was observed in cases diagnosed in the second 4-week period (January 31 to February 27), after which it declined significantly up to the 6th 4-week period (0.23%, 95% CI: 0.13–0.33, May 23 to June 19). The CFR then increased again but remained at 0.39% in the eighth period (July 18 to August 28). The CFR in cases with the BA.2 or BA.5 sublineages in the age range 60–80 years was significantly lower than that with BA.1 infections (60 years: 0.19%, 0.02%, 0.053%, respectively; 70 years: 0.91%, 0.33%, 0.39%; ≥80 years: 3.78%, 1.96%, 1.81%, respectively). We conclude that the risk of death in Japanese COVID-19 patients infected with Omicron variants declined through February to mid-June 2022.

In February 2024, a 22-year-old Japanese resident of Osaka Prefecture was diagnosed with measles in the PCR test. He had flown from Dubai to Osaka Kansai International Airport. We finally detected 13 incident measles cases identified as infected by the index case and collected data on these individuals to evaluate the association between vaccination and incubation period. The mean incubation period in all 13 infectees was 11.7 days (range: 7-20 days). The incubation period among infectees who had no history of measles vaccination ranged from 7 to 10 days (mean: 8.4 days), whereas it was significantly longer in those who had received any measles vaccine (p = 0.005). Moreover, the number of measles vaccinations received correlated positively with the length of the incubation period (p = 0.004).