Background: Since the pandemic outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the health system capacity in highly endemic areas has been overwhelmed. Approaches to efficient management are urgently needed. We aimed to develop and validate a score for early prediction of clinical deterioration of COVID-19 patients. Methods: In this retrospective multicenter cohort study, we included 1138 mild to moderate COVID-19 patients admitted to 33 hospitals in Guangdong Province from December 27, 2019 to March 4, 2020 (N =818; training cohort), as well as two hospitals in Hubei Province from January 21 to February 22, 2020 (N =320; validation cohort) in the analysis. Results: The 14-day cumulative incidences of clinical deterioration were 7.9% and 12.1% in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. An Early WArning Score (EWAS) (ranging from 0 to 4.5), comprising of age, underlying chronic disease, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein, and D-dimer levels, was developed (AUROC: 0.857). By applying the EWAS, patients were categorized into low-, medium-, and high risk groups (cut-off values: two and three). The 14-day cumulative incidence of clinical deterioration in the low-risk group was 1.8%, which was significantly lower than the incidence rates in the medium-(14.4%) and high-risk (40.9%) groups (P <.001). The predictability of EWAS was similar in the validation cohort (AUROC =0.781), patients in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups had 14-day cumulative incidences of 2.6%, 10.0%, and 25.7%, respectively (P <.001). Conclusion: The EWAS, which is based on five common parameters, can predict COVID-19-related clinical deterioration and may be a useful tool for a rapid triage and establishing a COVID-19 hierarchical management system that will greatly focus clinical management and medical resources to reduce mortality in highly endemic areas.

Limited real-world data on dolutegravir (DTG) plus lamivudine (3TC) for HIV-1-infected individuals have been reported. This study aimed to evaluated the real-world efficacy and safety of DTG + 3TC in ART-naïve HIV-1-infected adults in China. This real-world prospective observational cohort study enrolled HIV-1-infected adults receiving ART initiation with DTG + 3TC (D3 group) or tenofovir plus lamivudine and efavirenz (TDF + 3TC + EFV, TLE group) with subgroups of low viral load (LVL, ≤500,000 copies/mL) and high viral load (HVL, >500,000 copies/mL) according to baseline HIV-1 RNA. Efficacy were assessed by proportion of virologic suppression, changes of CD4⁺ cell count and CD4/CD8 ratio, HIV-1 DNA decay, and safety by symptoms and changes of laboratory indicators at week 4, 12, 24, 36, and 48. Totally 45 participants in D3 group and 95 in TLE group were enrolled. The proportion of HIV RNA < 50 copies/mL were 48.7% (19/39), 84.6% (33/39), 100% (39/39), 100% (39/39) in D3-LVL subgroup at week 4, 12, 24, 48, compared with 1.3% (1/75), 14.7% (11/75), 86.7% (65/75), 96.0% (72/75) in TLE-LVL subgroup, with P < .05 at week 4, 12, and 36. The proportion were 0.0% (0/6), 66.7% (4/6), 83.3% (5/6), 100% (6/6) in D3-HVL subgroup compared with 0.0% (0/20), 5.0% (1/20), 85.0% (17/20), 100% (20/20) in TLE-HVL subgroup, with P < .05 at week 12. No virologic rebound was observed in D3 group. Mean change of CD4/CD8 ratio were higher in D3-LVL versus TLE-LVL subgroup at each scheduled visit (P < .05), while CD4⁺ cell counts increased significantly in D3-HVL versus TLE-HVL subgroup at week 4 and 12 (P < .05). Less complaint of dizziness, insomnia, dreaminess and amnesia, lower elevated level of triglyceride and higher elevated level of creatinine from baseline to week 48 were documented in D3 group (P < .05). Total HIV-1 DNA decayed along with HIV-1 RNA after DTG + 3TC initiation in both D3-LVL and D3-HVL subgroups. DTG + 3TC achieved virological suppression more rapidly and stably versus TDF + 3TC + EFV in ART-naïve HIV-1-infected adults, with better immunological response and less adverse drug effect, and reduced total HIV-1 DNA effectively. DTG + 3TC is a potent regimen for ART-naïve individuals with HIV-1 infection.

We aim to explore the effects of nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) on the changes of HBsAg in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. A total of 264 CHB patients were enrolled in our study. All of them were treated with NUCs for at least three years. Quantification of HBsAg levels were measured by Elecsys HBsAg II. Although HBsAg levels were significantly higher in HBeAg seropositive CHB patients at baseline than in HBeAg seronegative CHB patients (3.84 ± 0.82 vs 3.21 ± 0.59 IU/mL), HBsAg levels declined more rapidly in the HBeAg seropositive group (P < 0.001). In HBeAg-positive CHB patients, HBsAg level in the telbivudine (LDT)-treated group was 3.68 ± 0.56 IU/mL after 52-week of treatment, which was significantly higher than that in lamivudine (LAM)-treated group (P = 0.009). Multivariable analyses showed that baseline HBV DNA viral load (OR = 0.75, P = 0.018), baseline ALT level (OR = 0.99, P = 0.015), and baseline HBsAg level (OR = 0.188, P < 0.001) were independent factors that affected HBsAg decline in HBeAg seropositive CHB patients. For HBeAg seronegative CHB patients, the average of serum HBsAg levels in LAM-, LdT-, adefovir (ADV)-, and entecavir (ETV)-treated groups at baseline, 52 weeks, 104 weeks, and 156 weeks were similar. Multivariable analyses showed that only baseline HBV DNA level (OR = 0.56, P = 0.020) and baseline HBsAg level (OR = 0.57, P = 0.012) were independent factors that affected HBsAg decline in HBeAg seronegative patients with CHB. Baseline HBV DNA level (OR = 0.72, P = 0.010) and baseline HBsAg level (OR = 0.19, P < 0.001) were independent factors that affected all CHB patients. CHB Patients who had received NUCs antiviral treatment showed a slow but significant decrease in serum HBsAg level. Long-term monitoring and continuous antiviral treatment are necessary, especially for those patients with risk factors associated with HBsAg decline.