The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic.

Tissue engineering of implantable cellular constructs is an emerging cellular therapy for hepatic disease. In this study, we tested the ability of poly(ε-caprolactone) (PCL) nanofiber scaffold to support and maintain hepatic differentiation of human cord blood-derived unrestricted somatic stem cells (USSCs) in vitro. USSCs, self-renewing pluripotent cells, were isolated from human cord blood. The electrospun PCL nanofiber porous scaffold was constructed of uniform, randomly oriented nanofibers. USSCs were seeded onto PCL nanofiber scaffolds, and were induced to differentiate into hepatogenic lineages by culturing with differentiation factors for 6 weeks. RT-PCR analysis of endoderm and hepatic-specific gene expression, immunohistochemical detection of cytokeratin 18 (CK-18), α-fetoprotein, albumin, glycogen storage and indocyanine green uptake confirmed the differentiation of USSCs into endoderm and hepatocyte-like cells. In the present study, we show that hepatocyte-like cells differentiated from USSCs on the PCL nanofiber scaffold can be candidate for tissue engineering and cell therapy of hepatic tissues.