The deadly coronavirus continues to spread across the globe, and mathematical models can be used to show suspected, recovered, and deceased coronavirus patients, as well as how many people have been tested. Researchers still do not know definitively whether surviving a COVID‐19 infection means you gain long‐lasting immunity and, if so, for how long? In order to understand, we think that this study may lead to better guessing the spread of this pandemic in future. We develop a mathematical model to present the dynamical behavior of COVID‐19 infection by incorporating isolation class. First, the formulation of model is proposed; then, positivity of the model is discussed. The local stability and global stability of proposed model are presented, which depended on the basic reproductive. For the numerical solution of the proposed model, the nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme and Runge‐Kutta fourth order method are used. Finally, some graphical results are presented. Our findings show that human to human contact is the potential cause of outbreaks of COVID‐19. Therefore, isolation of the infected human overall can reduce the risk of future COVID‐19 spread.
14 September 2016 in Journal of Biological Dynamics
In this article, we present the transmission dynamic of the acute and chronic hepatitis B epidemic problem and develop an optimal control strategy to control the spread of hepatitis B in a community. In order to do this, first we present the model formulation and find the basic reproduction number . We show that if then the disease-free equilibrium is both locally as well as globally asymptotically stable. Then, we prove that the model is locally and globally asymptotically stable, if . To control the spread of this infection, we develop a control strategy by applying three control variables such as isolation of infected and non-infected individuals, treatment and vaccination to minimize the number of acute infected, chronically infected with hepatitis B individuals and maximize the number of susceptible and recovered individuals. Finally, we present numerical simulation to illustrate the feasibility of the control strategy.
In this paper, we studied MHD two dimensional flow of an incompressible tangent hyperbolic fluid flow and heat transfer towards a stretching sheet with velocity and thermal slip. Lie group analysis is used to develop new similarity transformation, using these similarity transformation the governing nonlinear partial differential equation are reduced into a system of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The obtained system is solved numerically by applying shooting method. Effects of pertinent parameters on the velocity and temperature profiles, skin friction, local Nusselt number are graphically presented and discussed. Comparison between the present and previous results are shown in special cases.
The role of incidence rate is very important in the study of epidemiological models. In this article, the analysis of an epidemic problem for the transmission dynamic of HBV with saturated incidence rate is presented, which is more generalize than bilinear incidence rate. After formulating the new mathematical model, the threshold quantity reproduction number $$R_0$$ is investigated by using the well known approach i.e. next generation matrix and investigate the possible equilibriums such as disease free and endemic equilibria. Then for the local and global behavior of the proposed problem, the local asymptotic stability analysis as well as global asymptotic stability analysis are proved. To prove the global asymptotic stability at disease free equilibrium, the classic Lyapunov function theory is considered. Similarly to show global asymptotic stability at endemic equilibria, the geometrical approach is used, which is the generalization of Lyapunov theory. Finally, numeric of the proposed problem are carried out to show the feasibility of the obtained results and the role of saturated incidence rate.
This paper is focused on the transmission dynamics and optimal control of Anthroponotic Cutaneous Leishmania. The threshold condition R0 for initial transmission of infection is obtained by next generation method. Biological sense of the threshold condition is investigated and discussed in detail. The sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number is presented and the most sensitive parameters are high lighted. On the basis of sensitivity analysis, some control strategies are introduced in the model. These strategies positively reduce the effect of the parameters with high sensitivity indices, on the initial transmission. Finally, an optimal control strategy is presented by taking into account the cost associated with control strategies. It is also shown that an optimal control exists for the proposed control problem. The goal of optimal control problem is to minimize, the cost associated with control strategies and the chances of infectious humans, exposed humans and vector population to become infected. Numerical simulations are carried out with the help of Runge-Kutta fourth order procedure.
1 January 2011 in Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
We present the optimal campaigns in the smoking dynamics. Assuming that the giving up smoking model is described by the simplified PLSQ (potential‐light‐smoker‐quit smoker) model, we consider two possible control variables in the form of education and treatment campaigns oriented to decrease the attitude towards smoking. In order to do this we minimize the number of light (occasional) and persistent smokers and maximize the number of quit smokers in a community. We first show the existence of an optimal control for the control problem and then derive the optimality system by using the Pontryagin maximum principle. Finally numerical results of real epidemic are presented to show the applicability and efficiency of this approach.