The deadly coronavirus continues to spread across the globe, and mathematical models can be used to show suspected, recovered, and deceased coronavirus patients, as well as how many people have been tested. Researchers still do not know definitively whether surviving a COVID‐19 infection means you gain long‐lasting immunity and, if so, for how long? In order to understand, we think that this study may lead to better guessing the spread of this pandemic in future. We develop a mathematical model to present the dynamical behavior of COVID‐19 infection by incorporating isolation class. First, the formulation of model is proposed; then, positivity of the model is discussed. The local stability and global stability of proposed model are presented, which depended on the basic reproductive. For the numerical solution of the proposed model, the nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme and Runge‐Kutta fourth order method are used. Finally, some graphical results are presented. Our findings show that human to human contact is the potential cause of outbreaks of COVID‐19. Therefore, isolation of the infected human overall can reduce the risk of future COVID‐19 spread.
28 August 2020 in Advances in Difference Equations
Acknowledging many effects on humans, which are ignored in deterministic models for COVID-19, in this paper, we consider stochastic mathematical model for COVID-19. Firstly, the formulation of a stochastic susceptible–infected–recovered model is presented. Secondly, we devote with full strength our concentrated attention to sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence. Thirdly, we examine the threshold of the proposed stochastic COVID-19 model, when noise is small or large. Finally, we show the numerical simulations graphically using MATLAB.
The newly arose irresistible sickness known as the Covid illness (COVID-19), is a highly infectious viral disease. This disease caused millions of tainted cases internationally and still represent a disturbing circumstance for the human lives. As of late, numerous mathematical compartmental models have been considered to even more likely comprehend the Covid illness. The greater part of these models depends on integer-order derivatives which cannot catch the fading memory and crossover behavior found in many biological phenomena. Along these lines, the Covid illness in this paper is studied by investigating the elements of COVID-19 contamination utilizing the non-integer Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo derivative. Using the fixed-point approach, the existence and uniqueness of the integral of the fractional model for COVID is further deliberated. Along with Ulam–Hyers stability analysis, for the given model, all basic properties are studied. Furthermore, numerical simulations are performed using Newton polynomial and Adams Bashforth approaches for determining the impact of parameters change on the dynamical behavior of the systems.
14 August 2020 in Advances in Difference Equations
In this work, we formulate and analyze a new mathematical model for COVID-19 epidemic with isolated class in fractional order. This model is described by a system of fractional-order differential equations model and includes five classes, namely, S (susceptible class), E (exposed class), I (infected class), Q (isolated class), and R (recovered class). Dynamics and numerical approximations for the proposed fractional-order model are studied. Firstly, positivity and boundedness of the model are established. Secondly, the basic reproduction number of the model is calculated by using the next generation matrix approach. Then, asymptotic stability of the model is investigated. Lastly, we apply the adaptive predictor–corrector algorithm and fourth-order Runge–Kutta (RK4) method to simulate the proposed model. Consequently, a set of numerical simulations are performed to support the validity of the theoretical results. The numerical simulations indicate that there is a good agreement between theoretical results and numerical ones.
For a stochastic COVID-19 model with jump-diffusion, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution. We also investigate some conditions for the extinction and persistence of the disease. We calculate the threshold of the stochastic epidemic system which determines the extinction or permanence of the disease at different intensities of the stochastic noises. This threshold is denoted byξwhich depends on white and jump noises. The effects of these noises on the dynamics of the model are studied. The numerical experiments show that the random perturbation introduced in the stochastic model suppresses disease outbreak as compared to its deterministic counterpart. In other words, the impact of the noises on the extinction and persistence is high. When the noise is large or small, our numerical findings show that COVID-19 vanishes from the population if $\xi <1$ ; whereas the epidemic cannot go out of control if $\xi >1$ . From this, we observe that white noise and jump noise have a significant effect on the spread of COVID-19 infection, i.e., we can conclude that the stochastic model is more realistic than the deterministic one. Finally, to illustrate this phenomenon, we put some numerical simulations.