Persistence of acute viruses: How do highly contagious viruses that cause acute infections hang on to cause recurrent problems in a population? It should be expected that such infections would fade out as herd immunity develops, but foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) can reemerge. Jolles et al . explored how FMDV remains endemic in African buffalo and serves as a reservoir for disease in domestic livestock (see the Perspective by Hampson and Haydon). The authors found that the virus persists in the population in carrier animals. Inconspicuous, rare, and sporadic transmission rescues the virus from fade-out, assisted by antigenic shift and the seasonal birth of susceptible calves. —CA

Environmental factors are common forces driving infectious disease dynamics. We compared interannual and seasonal patterns of anthrax infections in two multihost systems in southern Africa: Etosha National Park, Namibia, and Kruger National Park, South Africa. Using several decades of mortality data from each system, we assessed possible transmission mechanisms behind anthrax dynamics, examining (1) within‐ and between‐species temporal case correlations and (2) associations between anthrax mortalities and environmental factors, specifically rainfall and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), with empirical dynamic modeling. Anthrax cases in Kruger had wide interannual variation in case numbers, and large outbreaks seemed to follow a roughly decadal cycle. In contrast, outbreaks in Etosha were smaller in magnitude and occurred annually. In Etosha, the host species commonly affected remained consistent over several decades, although plains zebra (Equus quagga) became relatively more dominant. In Kruger, turnover of the main host species occurred after the 1990s, where the previously dominant host species, greater kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), was replaced by impala (Aepyceros melampus). In both parks, anthrax infections showed two seasonal peaks, with each species having only one peak in a year. Zebra, springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis), wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus), and impala cases peaked in wet seasons, while elephant (Loxodonta africana), kudu, and buffalo (Syncerus caffer) cases peaked in dry seasons. For common host species shared between the two parks, anthrax mortalities peaked in the same season in both systems. Among host species with cases peaking in the same season, anthrax mortalities were mostly synchronized, which implies similar transmission mechanisms or shared sources of exposure. Between seasons, outbreaks in one species may contribute to more cases in another species in the following season. Higher vegetation greenness was associated with more zebra and springbok anthrax mortalities in Etosha but fewer elephant cases in Kruger. These results suggest that host behavioral responses to changing environmental conditions may affect anthrax transmission risk, with differences in transmission mechanisms leading to multihost biseasonal outbreaks. This study reveals the dynamics and potential environmental drivers of anthrax in two savanna systems, providing a better understanding of factors driving biseasonal dynamics and outbreak variation among locations.

Although recombination is known to occur in foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), it is considered only a minor determinant of virus sequence diversity. Analysis at phylogenetic scales shows inter-serotypic recombination events are rare, whereby recombination occurs almost exclusively in non-structural proteins. In this study we have estimated recombination rates within a natural host in an experimental setting. African buffaloes were inoculated with a SAT-1 FMDV strain containing two major viral sub-populations differing in their capsid sequence. This population structure enabled the detection of extensive within-host recombination in the genomic region coding for structural proteins and allowed recombination rates between the two sub-populations to be estimated. Quite surprisingly, the effective recombination rate in VP1 during the acute infection phase turns out to be about 0.1 per base per year, i.e. comparable to the mutation/substitution rate. Using a high-resolution map of effective within-host recombination in the capsid-coding region, we identified a linkage disequilibrium pattern in VP1 that is consistent with a mosaic structure with two main genetic blocks. Positive epistatic interactions between co-evolved variants appear to be present both within and between blocks. These interactions are due to intra-host selection both at the RNA and protein level. Overall our findings show that during FMDV co-infections by closely related strains, capsid-coding genes recombine within the host at a much higher rate than expected, despite the presence of strong constraints dictated by the capsid structure. Although these intra-host results are not immediately translatable to a phylogenetic setting, recombination and epistasis must play a major and so far underappreciated role in the molecular evolution of the virus at all scales. There are 7 serotypes of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus and multiple strains of each serotype. The emergence of new strains can result in widespread outbreaks of disease and requires new vaccines to be developed. The major mechanisms driving variation are thought to be substitutions in the viral genome. Recombination in the capsid-coding region of the virus genome has been described at phylogenetic scales but not thought to play a major role in generating variants. In the current experiment, a co-infection of African buffaloes with closely related sub-populations of viruses allowed us to detect recombination events. For structural protein-coding sequences, the genetic composition of the population is driven by extensive within-host recombination. During the acute infection phase the intra-host recombination rates of 0.1 per base per year are comparable to the typical mutation rates of the virus. The recombination map reveals two strongly linked regions within the VP1 protein-coding sequence. Epistatic interactions between co-evolved mutations in VP1 are caused by intra-host selection at the RNA and protein level and are present both within and between the two regions. Our findings in this experimental setting support a major role for recombination and epistasis in the intra-host evolution of FMDV.

We investigated the possibility that sylvatic circulation of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in warthogs and Ornithodoros ticks had extended beyond the historically affected northern part of South Africa that was declared a controlled area in 1935 to prevent the spread of infection to the rest of the country. We recently reported finding antibody to the virus in extralimital warthogs in the south of the country, and now describe the detection of infected ticks outside the controlled area. A total of 5078 ticks was collected at 45 locations in 7/9 provinces during 2019–2021 and assayed as 711 pools for virus content by qPCR, while 221 pools were also analysed for tick phylogenetics. Viral nucleic acid was detected in 50 tick pools representing all four members of the Ornithodoros (Ornithodoros) moubata complex known to occur in South Africa: O. (O.) waterbergensis and O. (O.) phacochoerus species yielded ASFV genotypes XX, XXI, XXII at 4 locations and O. (O.) moubata yielded ASFV genotype I at two locations inside the controlled area. Outside the controlled area, O. (O.) moubata and O. (O.) compactus ticks yielded ASFV genotype I at 7 locations, while genotype III ASFV was identified in O. (O.) compactus ticks at a single location. Two of the three species of the O. (O.) savignyi complex ticks known to be present in the country, O. (O.) kalahariensis and O. (O.) noorsveldensis, were collected at single locations and found negative for virus. The only member of the Pavlovskyella subgenus of Ornithodoros ticks known to occur in South Africa, O. (P.) zumpti, was collected from warthog burrows for the first time, in Addo National Park in the Eastern Cape Province where ASFV had never been recorded, and it tested negative for the viral nucleic acid. While it is confirmed that there is sylvatic circulation of ASFV outside the controlled area in South Africa, there is a need for more extensive surveillance and for vector competence studies with various species of Ornithodoros ticks.