In the first half of 2020, the coronavirus pandemic led to a drastic slump in the automotive industry, which was replaced by a surprisingly rapid growth in demand in the fall of 2020, and consequently led to the current shortages in microelectronic products. The prospect of an equally rapid economic recovery in the automotive industry is still threatened by supply bottlenecks for raw materials and key components, foremost for semiconductors. The so-called ‘semiconductor crises’ show exemplarily the overlapping of short-term supply chain disruptions with long-term structural features of the semiconductor industry. The combination of both is preventing that the supply situation in the automotive industry will improve quickly. First in this paper, the reasons for and respective effects of the crisis on the automotive industry are investigated by a quantitative market analysis. Second, specific strategic measures and options of automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) and suppliers in Germany to cope with the situation and increase resilience in future supply chains are described by the means of qualitative expert interviews. By that, the paper helps in understanding the actual situation in the automotive industry, on the one hand, and contributes to the field of strategic supply chain and risk management with a focus on practical implications on the other hand. The results aim to support political stakeholders as well as small and medium sized enterprises to prepare themselves for future developments in the automotive market and changes in manufacturer–supplier relationships due to the transformation to new powertrain technologies and digitization.

This paper examines the state-of-the-art and trends in vehicle concept as well as key technology development in the context of electric mobility in a time frame from 2002 until 2012. Thus, an extensive vehicle concept database was designed, covering detailed technical specifications of more than 200 electrified vehicles in 3 different world regions, also considering different stages in vehicle development. By analyzing and comparing over 75 different market- and technology-oriented parameters per vehicle, sophisticated statements for the state-of-the-art and development trends of Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicles are identified. Results in this paper illustrate trends for Hybrid and Battery Electric Vehicle concept development with a focus on vehicle development stages, vehicle segments and powertrain architectures. On the other hand, state-of-the-art and trends for the development of two electric mobility key technologies are pointed out: Batteries and electric machines. Statements here are made for developments in terms of battery and electric machine technology, installation place, as well as technical parameters like energy capacity and power density. Key results illustrate e.g. a trend towards the use of front and rear axle motors, a more than doubled average electric machine power density with over 1,0kW/kg and an average BEV battery capacity of 19Wh per kg vehicle mass in 2012.

Companies facing transformation in the automotive industry will need to adapt to new trends, technologies and functions, in order to remain competitive. The challenge is to anticipate such trends and to forecast their development over time. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology that allows us to analyze the temporal development of technologies, taking automated driving as an example. The framework consists of a technological and a functional roadmap. The technology roadmap provides information on the temporal development of 59 technologies based on expert elicitation using a multi-stage Delphi survey and patent analyses. The functional roadmap is derived from a meta-analysis of studies including 209 predictions of the maturity of automated driving functions. The technological and functional roadmaps are merged into a consolidated roadmap, linking the temporal development of technologies and functions. Based on the publication analysis, SAE level 5 is predicted to be market-ready by 2030. Contrasted to the results from the Delphi survey in the technological roadmap, 2030 seems to be too optimistic, however, as some key technologies would not have reached market readiness by this time. As with all forecasts, the proposed framework is not able to accurately predict the future. However, the combination of different forecast approaches enables users to have a more holistic view of future developments than with single forecasting methods.

The transformation path to electric mobility will have fundamental impacts on the existing value chain and employment structures in the automotive industry. The purpose of this paper is to derive and examine these effects based on two different electric mobility market scenarios for the European (EU27) passenger car as well as truck market 2040 with special focus on the highly export-oriented industrial automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg. To achieve this, both a moderate and a progressive market scenario were simulated using the scientifically validated DLR VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model, based on two different parameter sets derived from actual and possible framework conditions on the European car and truck markets. Based on a detailed analysis of the industrial branch, value creation, and employee structure in Baden-Wuerttemberg and its automotive cluster, the effects resulting from the transformation to electric mobility will be displayed. With detailed Fade-In and Fade-Out analysis, the shifts from internal combustion engine components to electrified components will be derived and illustrated for each employee segment in the automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg, which leads to completely new and original results at this level of detail. Furthermore, the detailed display of the automotive cluster in this study allows for regionalized statements on employment effects, considering, for the first time, not only the car but also the truck segment. The analysis shows that battery electric vehicles will achieve a share of 34% or 57% for new registrations on the German car market in 2030, depending on the scenario framework conditions. The resulting employment effects for the entire automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg reach −37,000 (−8%) or −66,000 (−14%) by 2030 with further negative development until 2040 (−155,000, −30%) for the respective scenarios. Employment segments, in particular powertrain-dependent production employees, are at risk, with a potential decline of up to −60%. R&D employees could be also be significantly, affected with a reduction in workforce of about −50%.

Zusammenfassung: Die Pandemie stellt einen Einschnitt in der positiven Entwicklung des öffentlichen Verkehrs dar. Die Furcht der Nutzer:innen vor Infektionen könnte einen nachhaltigen negativen Effekt auf den öffentlichen Verkehr haben. Dieser Beitrag stellt Chancen und Potenziale des Mobility-as-a-Service vor, mit einem Fokus auf die Betriebsform Demand-Responsive Transport. Besondere Chancen könnten in einem Fahrzeugkonzept mit exklusiven Abteilen liegen, die auch bezüglich des Infektionsschutzes Vorteile gegenüber herkömmlichen Fahrzeugen des ÖPNV aufweisen. Auf Basis einer Betriebssimulation werden Anschaffungs- und Besitzkosten ermittelt.