Detailed background for all transport scenarios and development pathways including all key parameters, and story-lines for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C transport scenario pathways. Mode specific efficiency improvement over time for road-, rail- and aviation transport technologies. Explanations of all vehicle technologies are included in the scenarios, along with the rationale for their selection. Description of key technology parameters for all relevant transport modes such as energy demand per passenger, and per freight tonne. Detailed regional breakdown for developments in regard to transport energy demand for ten world regions and all transport modes are provided.

The transformation path to electric mobility will have fundamental impacts on the existing value chain and employment structures in the automotive industry. The purpose of this paper is to derive and examine these effects based on two different electric mobility market scenarios for the European (EU27) passenger car as well as truck market 2040 with special focus on the highly export-oriented industrial automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg. To achieve this, both a moderate and a progressive market scenario were simulated using the scientifically validated DLR VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model, based on two different parameter sets derived from actual and possible framework conditions on the European car and truck markets. Based on a detailed analysis of the industrial branch, value creation, and employee structure in Baden-Wuerttemberg and its automotive cluster, the effects resulting from the transformation to electric mobility will be displayed. With detailed Fade-In and Fade-Out analysis, the shifts from internal combustion engine components to electrified components will be derived and illustrated for each employee segment in the automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg, which leads to completely new and original results at this level of detail. Furthermore, the detailed display of the automotive cluster in this study allows for regionalized statements on employment effects, considering, for the first time, not only the car but also the truck segment. The analysis shows that battery electric vehicles will achieve a share of 34% or 57% for new registrations on the German car market in 2030, depending on the scenario framework conditions. The resulting employment effects for the entire automotive cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg reach −37,000 (−8%) or −66,000 (−14%) by 2030 with further negative development until 2040 (−155,000, −30%) for the respective scenarios. Employment segments, in particular powertrain-dependent production employees, are at risk, with a potential decline of up to −60%. R&D employees could be also be significantly, affected with a reduction in workforce of about −50%.

Results for the 5.0 °C, 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios for ten world regions in regard to energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions, final-, primary-, transport- and heating demand and the deployment of various supply technologies to meet the demand. Furthermore, the electricity demand and generation scenarios are provided. The key results of a power sector analysis which simulates further electricity supply with high shares of solar- and wind power in one hour steps is provided. The ten world regions are divided into eight sub-regions and the expected development of loads, capacity-factors for various power plant types and storage demands are provided. This chapter contains more than 100 figures and tables.

Achieving net zero by 2050 requires the decarbonisation of road transport. Electrification is recognised as a market-ready solution for certain transport segments, but it still poses a considerable challenge when applied to road freight. Any consensus on the technology choice for road freight electrification has still not been established. Embedding stakeholder input in the approach to address the technology adoption challenge has proven useful in uncovering various perspectives, which can provide useful insights into managing such transitions. This review paper hence took a three-step approach where the findings from the initial step of the literature search were taken up for the second step of stakeholder validation and feedback. The third step involved an analysis of the input gathered and the subsequent literature review to arrive at the conclusions. The outcome from the stakeholder engagement suggests that any specific technology can only support the transition to electrified road freight if enabled by system changes around policy, infrastructure, user behaviour, and the societal setup A follow-up literature review validated the need for a sociotechnical approach to such transitions where system changes are involved. The review also found gaps in the literature when it comes to embedding such sociotechnical approaches to technology adoption for road freight transport.

The following section focuses on the main findings in all parts of the research, with priority given to high-level lessons, to avoid the repetition of previous chapters. The key findings as well as the research limitations and further research requirements are given for following topics: Renewable energy potential mapping, Transport scenario and long-term energy scenario development, power sector analysis, employment and mineral resource implications for the 2.0C and 1.5C scenarios and non-energy GHG scenarios, Policy recommendations for the energy sector with a focus on policies for buildings sector decarbonisation, for the transport and industry sector as well as a recommended political framework for power markets are provided.