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Paweł Marcinkowski
Department of Hydrology, Meteorology and Water Management, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences—SGGW, Warsaw, Poland

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Journal article
Published: 11 September 2020 in PeerJ
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Water plays a key role in the functioning of wetlands and a shortage or contamination of it leads to changes in habitat conditions and degradation of ecosystems. This article scrutinizes the impact of climate change on the hydrological characteristics of floods (maximum flow, duration, volume) in the River Biebrza wetlands (North-East Poland). We analysed the trends in duration and volume of flood and maximum discharges in the historical period 1970–2000 and predicted these for the future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100, respectively. Next we assessed the impact on the wetland ecosystems. The basis of our assessments consists of statistical analyses of hydrographs and calculations by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model and considering nine bias-corrected climate models. The results indicate that both volume and duration of winter floods will keep increasing continuously under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The reduction in peak annual floods is expected to decline slightly in both scenarios. On the other hand, the analysis of trends in mean and standard deviation revealed negligible tendencies in the datasets for summer and winter hydrological seasons within the three time frames analysed (1970–2000; 2020–2050; 2070–2100). We foresee several future implications for the floodplain ecosystems. Shifts in transversal ecosystem zonation parallel to the river will likely take place with more highly productive flood tolerant vegetation types. Nutrient availability and algal blooms during spring inundations will likely increase. Slowdown of organic matter turnover later in summer will lead to a higher peat accumulation rate. Logistical problems with summer mowing and removal of bushes in winter may enhance shrub encroachment.

ACS Style

Dorota Mirosław-Świątek; Paweł Marcinkowski; Krzysztof Kochanek; Martin J. Wassen. The impact of climate change on flow conditions and wetland ecosystems in the Lower Biebrza River (Poland). PeerJ 2020, 8, e9778 .

AMA Style

Dorota Mirosław-Świątek, Paweł Marcinkowski, Krzysztof Kochanek, Martin J. Wassen. The impact of climate change on flow conditions and wetland ecosystems in the Lower Biebrza River (Poland). PeerJ. 2020; 8 ():e9778.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Dorota Mirosław-Świątek; Paweł Marcinkowski; Krzysztof Kochanek; Martin J. Wassen. 2020. "The impact of climate change on flow conditions and wetland ecosystems in the Lower Biebrza River (Poland)." PeerJ 8, no. : e9778.

Journal article
Published: 23 June 2020 in PeerJ
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The progressive degradation of freshwater ecosystems worldwide requires action to be taken for their conservation. Nowadays, protection strategies need to step beyond the traditional approach of managing protected areas as they have to deal with the protection or recovery of natural flow regimes disrupted by the effects of future climate conditions. Climate change affects the hydrosphere at catchment scale altering hydrological processes which in turn impact hydrodynamics at the river reach scale. Therefore, conservation strategies should consider mathematical models, which allow for an improved understanding of ecosystem functions and their interactions across different spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on an anastomosing river system in north-eastern Poland, where in recent decades a significant loss of the anabranches has been observed. The objective was to assess the impact of projected climate change on average flow conditions in the anastomosing section of the Narew River. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT software) for the Narew catchment was coupled with the HEC-RAS one-dimensional unsteady flow model. The study looked into projected changes for two future time horizons 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 using an ensemble of nine EURO-CORDEX model scenarios. Results show that low flow conditions in the anastomosing section of the Narew National Park will remain relatively stable in 2021–2050 compared to current conditions and will slightly increase in 2071–2100. Duration of low flows, although projected to decrease on an annual basis, will increase for August–October, when the loss on anastomoses was found to be the most intense. Hydraulic modeling indicated extremely low flow velocities in the anastomosing arm (

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Dorota Mirosław-Świątek. Modelling of climate change impact on flow conditions in the lowland anastomosing river. PeerJ 2020, 8, e9275 .

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Dorota Mirosław-Świątek. Modelling of climate change impact on flow conditions in the lowland anastomosing river. PeerJ. 2020; 8 ():e9275.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Dorota Mirosław-Świątek. 2020. "Modelling of climate change impact on flow conditions in the lowland anastomosing river." PeerJ 8, no. : e9275.

Journal article
Published: 26 February 2020 in Water
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Large-scale re-establishment of wetland buffer zones (WBZ) along rivers is regarded as an effective measure in order to reduce non-point source nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution in agricultural catchments. We estimated efficiency and costs of a hypothetical establishment of WBZs along all watercourses in an agricultural landscape of the lower Narew River catchment (north-eastern Poland, 16,444 km2, amounting to 5% of Poland) by upscaling results obtained in five sub-catchments (1087 km2). Two scenarios were analysed, with either rewetting selected wetland polygons that collect water from larger areas (polygonal WBZs) or reshaping and rewetting banks of rivers (linear WBZs), both considered in all ecologically suitable locations along rivers. Cost calculation included engineering works necessary in order to establish WBZs, costs of land purchase where relevant, and compensation costs of income forgone to farmers (needed only for polygonal WBZs). Polygonal WBZs were estimated in order to remove 11%–30% N and 14%–42% P load from the catchment, whereas linear WBZs were even higher with 33%–82% N and 41%–87% P. Upscaled costs of WBZ establishment for the study area were found to be 8.9 M EUR plus 26.4 M EUR per year (polygonal WBZ scenario) or 170.8 M EUR (linear WBZ scenario). The latter value compares to costs of building about 20 km of an express road. Implementation of buffer zones on a larger scale is thus a question of setting policy priorities rather than financial impossibility.

ACS Style

Ewa Jabłońska; Marta Wiśniewska; Paweł Marcinkowski; Mateusz Grygoruk; Craig R. Walton; Dominik Zak; Carl C. Hoffmann; Søren E. Larsen; Michael Trepel; Wiktor Kotowski. Catchment-Scale Analysis Reveals High Cost-Effectiveness of Wetland Buffer Zones as a Remedy to Non-Point Nutrient Pollution in North-Eastern Poland. Water 2020, 12, 629 .

AMA Style

Ewa Jabłońska, Marta Wiśniewska, Paweł Marcinkowski, Mateusz Grygoruk, Craig R. Walton, Dominik Zak, Carl C. Hoffmann, Søren E. Larsen, Michael Trepel, Wiktor Kotowski. Catchment-Scale Analysis Reveals High Cost-Effectiveness of Wetland Buffer Zones as a Remedy to Non-Point Nutrient Pollution in North-Eastern Poland. Water. 2020; 12 (3):629.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ewa Jabłońska; Marta Wiśniewska; Paweł Marcinkowski; Mateusz Grygoruk; Craig R. Walton; Dominik Zak; Carl C. Hoffmann; Søren E. Larsen; Michael Trepel; Wiktor Kotowski. 2020. "Catchment-Scale Analysis Reveals High Cost-Effectiveness of Wetland Buffer Zones as a Remedy to Non-Point Nutrient Pollution in North-Eastern Poland." Water 12, no. 3: 629.

Journal article
Published: 21 October 2019 in Water
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Climate change is expected to affect the water cycle through changes in precipitation, river streamflow, and soil moisture dynamics, and therefore, present a threat to groundwater and surface water-fed wetland habitats and their biodiversity. This article examines the past trends and future impacts of climate change on riparian, water-dependent habitats within the special areas of conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. Hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was driven by a set of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Changes in the duration of flooding and inundation events were used to assess climate change’s impact on surface water-fed wetland habitats. The groundwater-fed wetlands were evaluated on the basis of changes in soil water content. Information about the current conservation status, threats, and pressures that affect the habitats suggest that the wetlands might dry out. Increased precipitation projected for the future causing increased water supply to both surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands would lead to beneficial outcomes for habitats with good, average, or reduced conservation status. However, habitats with an excellent conservation status that are already in optimum condition could be negatively affected by climate change as increased soil water or duration of overbank flow would exceed their tolerance.

ACS Style

Joanna O’Keeffe; Paweł Marcinkowski; Marta Utratna; Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz; Tomasz Okruszko; O’ Keeffe. Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland. Water 2019, 11, 2191 .

AMA Style

Joanna O’Keeffe, Paweł Marcinkowski, Marta Utratna, Mikołaj Piniewski, Ignacy Kardel, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Tomasz Okruszko, O’ Keeffe. Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland. Water. 2019; 11 (10):2191.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Joanna O’Keeffe; Paweł Marcinkowski; Marta Utratna; Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz; Tomasz Okruszko; O’ Keeffe. 2019. "Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland." Water 11, no. 10: 2191.

Journal article
Published: 01 October 2019 in Journal of Environmental Management
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The reduction of diffused nutrient pollution from agriculture is one of the defining challenges of our time, demanding system solutions. A nitrogen and phosphorus (N&P) reduction strategy at the catchment scale is the most realistic and effective long-term approach to eutrophication management. In this study, a voluntary programme for the reduction of diffuse pollution was developed for the Pilica catchment and the Sulejów Reservoir in Poland. The Action Plan was based on the ecohydrological approach, which strives to use ecosystem processes as a management tool. One fundamental element of the Plan was a SWAT model, used to estimate N&P emissions and to determine the priority areas in the catchment. Strong cooperation between water managers, interdisciplinary researchers, and stakeholders helped to catalyse the capacity-building process of public participation, through dialogical interaction including a critical exchange of knowledge. Finally, a list of selected spatially-targeted mitigation measures was generated based on the modelling results and following measure acceptance by stakeholders. The key assumption in the creation of the measure list was that ecohydrological nature-based solutions (NBS) should be used complementarily to good agricultural practices. Such an approach has contributed to a faster achievement of 'good ecological status' of water bodies.

ACS Style

Katarzyna Izydorczyk; Mikołaj Piniewski; Kinga Krauze; Louis Courseau; Paweł Czyż; Marek Giełczewski; Ignacy Kardel; Paweł Marcinkowski; Martyna Szuwart; Maciej Zalewski; Wojciech Frątczak. The ecohydrological approach, SWAT modelling, and multi-stakeholder engagement – A system solution to diffuse pollution in the Pilica basin, Poland. Journal of Environmental Management 2019, 248, 109329 .

AMA Style

Katarzyna Izydorczyk, Mikołaj Piniewski, Kinga Krauze, Louis Courseau, Paweł Czyż, Marek Giełczewski, Ignacy Kardel, Paweł Marcinkowski, Martyna Szuwart, Maciej Zalewski, Wojciech Frątczak. The ecohydrological approach, SWAT modelling, and multi-stakeholder engagement – A system solution to diffuse pollution in the Pilica basin, Poland. Journal of Environmental Management. 2019; 248 ():109329.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Katarzyna Izydorczyk; Mikołaj Piniewski; Kinga Krauze; Louis Courseau; Paweł Czyż; Marek Giełczewski; Ignacy Kardel; Paweł Marcinkowski; Martyna Szuwart; Maciej Zalewski; Wojciech Frątczak. 2019. "The ecohydrological approach, SWAT modelling, and multi-stakeholder engagement – A system solution to diffuse pollution in the Pilica basin, Poland." Journal of Environmental Management 248, no. : 109329.

Journal article
Published: 01 March 2019 in Ecological Engineering
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Multi-channel rivers support diverse and productive ecological communities, and their rareness in the developed world places a great importance on their conservation. The design of side channel restoration projects remains poorly informed by theory or empirical observations. One of the last examples of anastomosing rivers in Europe is a stretch of River Narew in Poland protected as a national park. Park Authorities face a problem of side channels extinction in last few decades and therefore a dedicated plan of protection measures (submerged weir construction, dredging and mowing of side channels) was established aimed at anastomosing system conservation. The objective of this study was an ex-ante assessment of the impact of proposed protection measures on discharge distribution, flow velocity and sediment transport potential in the anastomosing section of the river, using a hydraulic, one-dimensional model. Among the tested measures, more invasive dredging and damming were significantly more efficient than less invasive vegetation removal. Compared to other restoration projects of multi-channel rivers (Narew and Rhône cases), supported by extensive post-restoration monitoring, efficiency level was comparable reaching on maximum tenfold increase in discharge and fivefold increase in reach-averaged flow velocity in restored side channels. Post-conservation alterations of hydraulic properties in the anabranches resulted in a significant increase in sediment transport potential for measures changing channel geometry. Such change could potentially ensure the stability of restoration eliminating the main cause of channels extinction i.e. excessive sediment deposition.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Adam Kiczko; Tomasz Okruszko. Model-based evaluation of restoration measures efficiency in the anastomosing section of the River Narew. Ecological Engineering 2019, 130, 213 -227.

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Adam Kiczko, Tomasz Okruszko. Model-based evaluation of restoration measures efficiency in the anastomosing section of the River Narew. Ecological Engineering. 2019; 130 ():213-227.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Adam Kiczko; Tomasz Okruszko. 2019. "Model-based evaluation of restoration measures efficiency in the anastomosing section of the River Narew." Ecological Engineering 130, no. : 213-227.

Correction
Published: 05 December 2018 in Acta Geophysica
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ACS Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz; Mikołaj Piniewski; Abdelkader Mezghani; Tomasz Okruszko; Iwona Pińskwar; Ignacy Kardel; Øystein Hov; Mateusz Szcześniak; Małgorzata Szwed; Rasmus E. Benestad; Paweł Marcinkowski; Dariusz Graczyk; Andreas Dobler; Eirik J. Førland; Joanna O’Keeffe; Adam Choryński; Kajsa M. Parding; Jan Erik Haugen. Correction to: Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland. Acta Geophysica 2018, 67, 273 -273.

AMA Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Mikołaj Piniewski, Abdelkader Mezghani, Tomasz Okruszko, Iwona Pińskwar, Ignacy Kardel, Øystein Hov, Mateusz Szcześniak, Małgorzata Szwed, Rasmus E. Benestad, Paweł Marcinkowski, Dariusz Graczyk, Andreas Dobler, Eirik J. Førland, Joanna O’Keeffe, Adam Choryński, Kajsa M. Parding, Jan Erik Haugen. Correction to: Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland. Acta Geophysica. 2018; 67 (1):273-273.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz; Mikołaj Piniewski; Abdelkader Mezghani; Tomasz Okruszko; Iwona Pińskwar; Ignacy Kardel; Øystein Hov; Mateusz Szcześniak; Małgorzata Szwed; Rasmus E. Benestad; Paweł Marcinkowski; Dariusz Graczyk; Andreas Dobler; Eirik J. Førland; Joanna O’Keeffe; Adam Choryński; Kajsa M. Parding; Jan Erik Haugen. 2018. "Correction to: Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland." Acta Geophysica 67, no. 1: 273-273.

Research article atmospheric and space sciences
Published: 03 November 2018 in Acta Geophysica
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The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

ACS Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz; Mikołaj Piniewski; Abdelkader Mezghani; Tomasz Okruszko; Iwona Pińskwar; Ignacy Kardel; Øystein Hov; Mateusz Szcześniak; Małgorzata Szwed; Rasmus E. Benestad; Paweł Marcinkowski; Dariusz Graczyk; Andreas Dobler; Eirik J. Førland; Joanna O'Keeffe; Adam Choryński; Kajsa M. Parding; Jan Erik Haugen. Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland. Acta Geophysica 2018, 66, 1509 -1523.

AMA Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Mikołaj Piniewski, Abdelkader Mezghani, Tomasz Okruszko, Iwona Pińskwar, Ignacy Kardel, Øystein Hov, Mateusz Szcześniak, Małgorzata Szwed, Rasmus E. Benestad, Paweł Marcinkowski, Dariusz Graczyk, Andreas Dobler, Eirik J. Førland, Joanna O'Keeffe, Adam Choryński, Kajsa M. Parding, Jan Erik Haugen. Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland. Acta Geophysica. 2018; 66 (6):1509-1523.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zbigniew Kundzewicz; Mikołaj Piniewski; Abdelkader Mezghani; Tomasz Okruszko; Iwona Pińskwar; Ignacy Kardel; Øystein Hov; Mateusz Szcześniak; Małgorzata Szwed; Rasmus E. Benestad; Paweł Marcinkowski; Dariusz Graczyk; Andreas Dobler; Eirik J. Førland; Joanna O'Keeffe; Adam Choryński; Kajsa M. Parding; Jan Erik Haugen. 2018. "Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland." Acta Geophysica 66, no. 6: 1509-1523.

Journal article
Published: 23 October 2018 in Water
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Determination of environmental flows at the regional scale has been complicated by the fine-scale variability of the needs of aquatic organisms. Therefore, most regional methods are based on observation of hydrological patterns and lack evidence of connection to biological responses. In contrast, biologically sound methods are too detailed and resource-consuming for applications on larger scales. The purpose of this pilot project was to develop an approach that would breach this gap and provide biologically sound rules for environmental flow (eflow) estimation for the region of Poland. The concept was developed using seven river sites, which represent the four of six fish-ecological freshwater body types common in Poland. Each of these types was distinguished based on a specific fish community structure, composed of habitat-use guilds. The environmental significance of the flows for these communities was established with help of the habitat simulation model MesoHABSIM computed for each of the seven sites. The established seasonal environmental flow thresholds were standardized to the watershed area and assigned to the corresponding water body type. With these obtained environmental flow coefficients, a standard-setting formula was created, which is compatible with existing standard-setting approaches while maintaining biological significance. The proposed approach is a first attempt to use habitat suitability models to justify a desktop formula for the regional scale eflow criteria.

ACS Style

Piotr Parasiewicz; Paweł Prus; Katarzyna Suska; Paweł Marcinkowski. “E = mc2” of Environmental Flows: A Conceptual Framework for Establishing a Fish-Biological Foundation for a Regionally Applicable Environmental Low-Flow Formula. Water 2018, 10, 1501 .

AMA Style

Piotr Parasiewicz, Paweł Prus, Katarzyna Suska, Paweł Marcinkowski. “E = mc2” of Environmental Flows: A Conceptual Framework for Establishing a Fish-Biological Foundation for a Regionally Applicable Environmental Low-Flow Formula. Water. 2018; 10 (11):1501.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Piotr Parasiewicz; Paweł Prus; Katarzyna Suska; Paweł Marcinkowski. 2018. "“E = mc2” of Environmental Flows: A Conceptual Framework for Establishing a Fish-Biological Foundation for a Regionally Applicable Environmental Low-Flow Formula." Water 10, no. 11: 1501.

Journal article
Published: 18 July 2018 in Water
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The impact of vegetation on the hydrology and geomorphology of aquatic ecosystems has been studied intensively in recent years. Numerous hydraulic models developed to date help to understand and quantitatively assess the influence of in-stream macrophytes on a channel’s hydraulic conditions. However, special focus is placed on single-thread rivers, leaving anastomosing rivers practically uninvestigated. To fill this gap, the objective of this study was to investigate the impact of vegetation on flow distribution in a complex anastomosing river system situated in northeastern Poland. The newly designed, one-dimensional, steady-flow model, dedicated for anastomosing rivers used in this study indicated high influence of vegetation on water flow distribution during the whole year in general, but—as expected—significantly higher in the summer season. Simulations of in-stream vegetation removal in selected channels reflected in Manning’s coefficient alterations caused relatively high discharge transitions during the growing season. This proved the significance of feedback between process of plants growth and distribution of flow in anabranches. The results are unique and relevant and could be successfully considered for the protection of semi-natural anabranching rivers.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Adam Kiczko; Tomasz Okruszko. Model-Based Analysis of Macrophytes Role in the Flow Distribution in the Anastomosing River System. Water 2018, 10, 953 .

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Adam Kiczko, Tomasz Okruszko. Model-Based Analysis of Macrophytes Role in the Flow Distribution in the Anastomosing River System. Water. 2018; 10 (7):953.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Adam Kiczko; Tomasz Okruszko. 2018. "Model-Based Analysis of Macrophytes Role in the Flow Distribution in the Anastomosing River System." Water 10, no. 7: 953.

Journal article
Published: 09 July 2018 in Polish Journal of Environmental Studies
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Anastomosing rivers were historically common around the world before agricultural and industrial development in river valleys. Presently, one of preserved examples of an anastomosing type of river in Europe is the Upper Narew River (Poland). The uniqueness of the river determined embracing of the 35 km-long section of its length and adjacent valley by formal protection as the Narew National Park (NNP) and Natura 2000 site. At present, the NNP Authorities are implementing the hands-off strategy focusing on the maintenance of the processes. To assess the efficiency of such a policy the current hydromorphological condition of anastomosing river reach in NNP and the historical changes of the river planform at reach scale were recognized. The Hierarchical Framework tool (HF) was used for this purpose.. Although current processes seem to be preferential for anastomoses maintenance, the analysis of historical river changes showed an accelerating pace of channels extinction. The anastomosing planform of the Narew River was created through natural processes, but it has been maintained through a long history of human use and modification of the river system. The hands-off approach to direct channel management will most likely result in the further loss of anabranches, and hence, the hands-on protection strategy seems to be a reasonable solution for protection of the NNP.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Marek Giełczewski; Tomasz Okruszko. Where Might the Hands-off Protection Strategy of Anastomosing Rivers Lead? A Case Study of Narew National Park. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies 2018, 27, 2647 -2658.

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Marek Giełczewski, Tomasz Okruszko. Where Might the Hands-off Protection Strategy of Anastomosing Rivers Lead? A Case Study of Narew National Park. Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. 2018; 27 (6):2647-2658.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Marek Giełczewski; Tomasz Okruszko. 2018. "Where Might the Hands-off Protection Strategy of Anastomosing Rivers Lead? A Case Study of Narew National Park." Polish Journal of Environmental Studies 27, no. 6: 2647-2658.

Journal article
Published: 01 April 2018 in International Agrophysics
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Climate change and projected temperature increase is recognised to have significant impact on agricultural production and crop phenology. This study evaluated the climate change impact on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in the boundaries of two largest catchments in Poland - the Vistula and the Odra. For this purpose, an agro-hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool has been used, driven by climate forcing data provided within the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain experiment projected to the year 2100 under two representative concentration pathways: 4.5 and 8.5. The projected warmer climate significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and harvest dates. The rate of acceleration was dependent on the time horizon and representative concentration pathways scenario. In general, the rate of sowing/harvest advance was accelerating in time and, also from representative concentration pathways 4.5 to 8.5, reaching 23 days for spring barley and 30 days for maize (ensemble mean for the far future under representative concentration pathways 8.5).

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mikołaj Piniewski. Effect of climate change on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in Poland. International Agrophysics 2018, 32, 265 -271.

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Mikołaj Piniewski. Effect of climate change on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in Poland. International Agrophysics. 2018; 32 (2):265-271.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mikołaj Piniewski. 2018. "Effect of climate change on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in Poland." International Agrophysics 32, no. 2: 265-271.

Research article hydrology
Published: 07 February 2018 in Acta Geophysica
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The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.

ACS Style

Mikołaj Piniewski; Paweł Marcinkowski; Zbigniew Kundzewicz. Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland. Acta Geophysica 2018, 66, 347 -360.

AMA Style

Mikołaj Piniewski, Paweł Marcinkowski, Zbigniew Kundzewicz. Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland. Acta Geophysica. 2018; 66 (3):347-360.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mikołaj Piniewski; Paweł Marcinkowski; Zbigniew Kundzewicz. 2018. "Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland." Acta Geophysica 66, no. 3: 347-360.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2017 in Science of The Total Environment
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Anastomosing rivers were historically common around the world before extensive agricultural and industrial development in river valleys. Few lowland anastomosing rivers remain in temperate zones, and the protection of these river-floodplain systems is an international conservation priority. However, the mechanisms that drive the creation and maintenance of multiple channels, i.e. anabranches, are not well understood, particularly for lowland rivers, making it challenging to identify effective management strategies. This study uses a novel multi-scale, process-based hydro-geomorphological approach to investigate the natural and anthropogenic controls on anastomosis in lowland river reaches. Using a wide range of data (hydrologic, cartographic, remote-sensing, historical), the study (i) quantifies changes in the planform of the River Narew, Poland over the last 100years, (ii) documents changes in the natural and anthropogenic factors that could be driving the geomorphic change, and (iii) develops a conceptual model of the controls of anastomosis. The results show that 110km of anabranches have been lost from the Narew National Park (6810ha), a 42% reduction in total anabranch length since 1900. The rates of anabranch loss have increased as the number of pressures inhibiting anabranch creation and maintenance has multiplied. The cessation of localized water level and channel management (fishing dams, water mills and timber rafting), the loss of traditional floodplain activities (seasonal mowing) and infrastructure construction (embanked roads and an upstream dam) are contributing to low water levels and flows, the deposition of sediment at anabranch inlets, the encroachment of common reed (Phragmites australis), and the eventual loss of anabranches. By identifying the processes driving the loss of anabranches, this study provides transferable insights into the controls of anastomosis in lowland rivers and the management solutions needed to preserve the unique anastomosing river pattern and diverse wet grasslands that are central to the conservation value of lowland floodplains.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Robert C. Grabowski; Tomasz Okruszko. Controls on anastomosis in lowland river systems: Towards process-based solutions to habitat conservation. Science of The Total Environment 2017, 609, 1544 -1555.

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Robert C. Grabowski, Tomasz Okruszko. Controls on anastomosis in lowland river systems: Towards process-based solutions to habitat conservation. Science of The Total Environment. 2017; 609 ():1544-1555.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Robert C. Grabowski; Tomasz Okruszko. 2017. "Controls on anastomosis in lowland river systems: Towards process-based solutions to habitat conservation." Science of The Total Environment 609, no. : 1544-1555.

Article
Published: 17 November 2017 in Environmental Management
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The Morphological Quality Index (MQI) and the Morphological Quality Index for monitoring (MQIm) have been applied to eight case studies across Europe with the objective of analyzing the hydromorphological response to various restoration measures and of comparing the results of the MQI and MQIm as a morphological assessment applied at the reach scale, with a conventional site scale physical-habitat assessment method. For each restored reach, the two indices were applied to the pre-restoration and post-restoration conditions. The restored reach was also compared to an adjacent, degraded reach. Results show that in all cases the restoration measures improved the morphological quality of the reach, but that the degree of improvement depends on many factors, including the initial morphological conditions, the length of the restored portion in relation to the reach length, and on the type of intervention. The comparison with a conventional site scale physical-habitat assessment method shows that the MQI and MQIm are best suited for the evaluation of restoration effects on river hydromorphology at the geomorphologically-relevant scale of the river reach.

ACS Style

Barbara Belletti; L. Nardi; M. Rinaldi; M. Poppe; K. Brabec; M. Bussettini; F. Comiti; M. Gielczewski; B. Golfieri; S. Hellsten; J. Kail; E. Marchese; P. Marcinkowski; T. Okruszko; A. Paillex; M. Schirmer; M. Stelmaszczyk; N. Surian. Assessing Restoration Effects on River Hydromorphology Using the Process-based Morphological Quality Index in Eight European River Reaches. Environmental Management 2017, 61, 69 -84.

AMA Style

Barbara Belletti, L. Nardi, M. Rinaldi, M. Poppe, K. Brabec, M. Bussettini, F. Comiti, M. Gielczewski, B. Golfieri, S. Hellsten, J. Kail, E. Marchese, P. Marcinkowski, T. Okruszko, A. Paillex, M. Schirmer, M. Stelmaszczyk, N. Surian. Assessing Restoration Effects on River Hydromorphology Using the Process-based Morphological Quality Index in Eight European River Reaches. Environmental Management. 2017; 61 (1):69-84.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Barbara Belletti; L. Nardi; M. Rinaldi; M. Poppe; K. Brabec; M. Bussettini; F. Comiti; M. Gielczewski; B. Golfieri; S. Hellsten; J. Kail; E. Marchese; P. Marcinkowski; T. Okruszko; A. Paillex; M. Schirmer; M. Stelmaszczyk; N. Surian. 2017. "Assessing Restoration Effects on River Hydromorphology Using the Process-based Morphological Quality Index in Eight European River Reaches." Environmental Management 61, no. 1: 69-84.

Journal article
Published: 12 October 2017 in Water
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Most European riverine ecosystems suffer from the negative influence of impoundments on flow regime. Downstream effects of dams lead to a number of environmental and socioeconomic risks and, therefore, should be thoroughly examined in specific contexts. Our study aims to quantify the downstream effects of the Siemianówka Reservoir (Upper Narew, Poland), using statistical analysis of key elements of the river’s flow regime, such as the flow duration and recurrence of floods and droughts. In a comparative study on control catchments not influenced by impoundments (the Supraśl and Narewka Rivers), we revealed the following downstream effects of the analyzed dam: significant shortening of spring floods, reduction of the duration and depth of summer droughts, decrease of the maximum discharge, and homogenization of the discharge hydrographs. Although we determined a significant decrease in the duration of summer floods in the “before” and “after” dam function periods, we showed that this issue is regional, climate-related, and replicated in control catchments, rather than an evident downstream effect of the dam. We conclude that significant hydrological downstream effects of the Siemianówka dam–reservoir system could have been the main driver inducing the deterioration of the anastomosing stretch of the Narew River downstream of the dam.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mateusz Grygoruk. Long-Term Downstream Effects of a Dam on a Lowland River Flow Regime: Case Study of the Upper Narew. Water 2017, 9, 783 .

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Mateusz Grygoruk. Long-Term Downstream Effects of a Dam on a Lowland River Flow Regime: Case Study of the Upper Narew. Water. 2017; 9 (10):783.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mateusz Grygoruk. 2017. "Long-Term Downstream Effects of a Dam on a Lowland River Flow Regime: Case Study of the Upper Narew." Water 9, no. 10: 783.

Journal article
Published: 01 September 2017 in Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Land Reclamation
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Modeling of water flow in multi-channel river system in the Narew National Park. Anastomosing rivers constitute a rare example of multi-channel systems, which used to be very common before the agricultural and industrial development. Presently few of them remain worldwide and the only example in Poland is the Upper River Narew within Narew National Park. Although hydraulic modeling using one-dimensional models is commonly used to describe water flow in rivers, for multi-channel rivers problem is more complicated. For this type of rivers it is expected that the feedback between process of plants growth (expressed by Manning’s coefficient) and distribution of flow in anabranches is high. However, assignment procedure on roughness coefficients in splitting and rejoining channels is laborious and difficult. Therefore, for efficient water flow modeling in multi-channel systems a stand-alone hydraulic model equipped with automatic optimization procedure was developed. Optimization and validation stages, based on field measurements data of discharge and water levels, indicated that the model accurately simulates water flow in multi-channel system.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Adam Kiczko; Tomasz Okruszko. Modeling of water flow in multi-channel river system in the Narew National Park. Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Land Reclamation 2017, 49, 167 -177.

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Adam Kiczko, Tomasz Okruszko. Modeling of water flow in multi-channel river system in the Narew National Park. Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Land Reclamation. 2017; 49 (3):167-177.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Adam Kiczko; Tomasz Okruszko. 2017. "Modeling of water flow in multi-channel river system in the Narew National Park." Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW. Land Reclamation 49, no. 3: 167-177.

Journal article
Published: 23 February 2017 in Water
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Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021–2050, and far future: 2071– 2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models—Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment—European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Mateusz Szcześniak; Rasmus Benestad; Raghavan Srinivasan; Stefan Ignar; Tomasz Okruszko. Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland. Water 2017, 9, 156 .

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Mikołaj Piniewski, Ignacy Kardel, Mateusz Szcześniak, Rasmus Benestad, Raghavan Srinivasan, Stefan Ignar, Tomasz Okruszko. Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland. Water. 2017; 9 (3):156.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Mateusz Szcześniak; Rasmus Benestad; Raghavan Srinivasan; Stefan Ignar; Tomasz Okruszko. 2017. "Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland." Water 9, no. 3: 156.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2016 in Journal of Water and Land Development
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This study presents an application of the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) in two meso-scale catchments in Poland (Upper Narew and Barycz), contrasting in terms of human pressures on water quantity and quality. The main objective was multi-variable and multi-site calibration and validation of the model against daily discharge, sediment and nutrient loads as well as discussion of challenges encountered in calibration phase. Multi-site calibration and validation gave varied results ranging from very good (daily discharge) to acceptable (sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus loads in most of gauges) and rather poor (individual gauges for all variables) in both catchments. The calibrated models enabled spatial quantification of water yield, sediment and nutrient loads, indicating areas of special concern in terms of pollution, as well as estimation of contribution of pollution from different sources, indicating agriculture as the most important source in both catchments. During the calibration process a number of significant issues were encountered: (i) global vs. local parametrization, (ii) simulation of different pools of water quality parameters in reservoirs and streams and (iii) underestimation of NO3-N loads in winter due to farmers practices. Discussion of these issues is hoped to aid SWAT model users in Poland in a deeper understanding of mechanisms of multi-variable and multi-site calibration.

ACS Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Raghavan Srinivasan; Tomasz Okruszko. Challenges in modelling of water quantity and quality in two contrasting meso-scale catchments in Poland. Journal of Water and Land Development 2016, 31, 97 -111.

AMA Style

Paweł Marcinkowski, Mikołaj Piniewski, Ignacy Kardel, Raghavan Srinivasan, Tomasz Okruszko. Challenges in modelling of water quantity and quality in two contrasting meso-scale catchments in Poland. Journal of Water and Land Development. 2016; 31 (1):97-111.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paweł Marcinkowski; Mikołaj Piniewski; Ignacy Kardel; Raghavan Srinivasan; Tomasz Okruszko. 2016. "Challenges in modelling of water quantity and quality in two contrasting meso-scale catchments in Poland." Journal of Water and Land Development 31, no. 1: 97-111.

Journal article
Published: 22 September 2015 in Aquatic Sciences
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This paper introduces this special issue of Aquatic Sciences. It outlines a multi-scale, hierarchical framework for developing process-based understanding of catchment to reach hydromorphology that can aid design and delivery of sustainable river management solutions. The framework was developed within the REFORM (REstoring rivers FOR effective catchment Management) project, funded by the European Union’s FP7 Programme. Specific aspects of this ‘REFORM framework’ and some applications are presented in other papers in this special issue. The REFORM framework is founded on previous hierarchical frameworks, sixteen examples of which are reviewed. However, the REFORM framework has some particular properties that reflect the European context for which it was developed. The framework delineates regional landscapes into nested spatial units at catchment, landscape unit, segment, reach, geomorphic unit and finer scales. Reaches, regardless of their ‘naturalness’, are assigned to a river type based on valley confinement, planform and bed material. Indicators are quantified at each spatial scale to feed three groups of assessments. First, contemporary indicators at reach and geomorphic unit scales investigate present processes, forms and human pressures within each reach. These feed assessments of present reach hydromorphological function/alteration, including whether the reach is functioning appropriately for its type; riparian corridor function and alteration; and hydromorphological adjustment. Second, indicators at catchment to segment scales investigate water and sediment production and delivery to reaches and how these are affected by human pressures now and in the past. These are used to construct an inventory of changes over space and time. Third, historical reach and geomorphic unit scale indicators are used to construct the trajectory of reach-scale changes. Contemporary reach-scale assessments, space–time inventory, and trajectory of changes are then combined to establish how river reaches of different type, subject to different human pressures, and located in different environmental contexts behave in response to changes at all considered spatial scales. These support forecasts of the likely responses of reaches to future scenarios (e.g., changes in climate, land cover, channel interventions).

ACS Style

A. M. Gurnell; M. Rinaldi; Barbara Belletti; Simone Bizzi; B. Blamauer; G. Braca; A. D. Buijse; M. Bussettini; B. Camenen; F. Comiti; Luca Demarchi; Diego Garcia de Jalon; Marta González del Tánago; Robert Grabowski; I. D. M. Gunn; Helmut Habersack; D. Hendriks; A. J. Henshaw; M. Klösch; B. Lastoria; A. Latapie; Paweł Marcinkowski; Vanesa Martinez Fernandez; E. Mosselman; J. O. Mountford; L. Nardi; Tomasz Okruszko; M. T. O’Hare; M. Palma; C. Percopo; Nicola Surian; W. Van De Bund; C. Weissteiner; L. Ziliani. A multi-scale hierarchical framework for developing understanding of river behaviour to support river management. Aquatic Sciences 2015, 78, 1 -16.

AMA Style

A. M. Gurnell, M. Rinaldi, Barbara Belletti, Simone Bizzi, B. Blamauer, G. Braca, A. D. Buijse, M. Bussettini, B. Camenen, F. Comiti, Luca Demarchi, Diego Garcia de Jalon, Marta González del Tánago, Robert Grabowski, I. D. M. Gunn, Helmut Habersack, D. Hendriks, A. J. Henshaw, M. Klösch, B. Lastoria, A. Latapie, Paweł Marcinkowski, Vanesa Martinez Fernandez, E. Mosselman, J. O. Mountford, L. Nardi, Tomasz Okruszko, M. T. O’Hare, M. Palma, C. Percopo, Nicola Surian, W. Van De Bund, C. Weissteiner, L. Ziliani. A multi-scale hierarchical framework for developing understanding of river behaviour to support river management. Aquatic Sciences. 2015; 78 (1):1-16.

Chicago/Turabian Style

A. M. Gurnell; M. Rinaldi; Barbara Belletti; Simone Bizzi; B. Blamauer; G. Braca; A. D. Buijse; M. Bussettini; B. Camenen; F. Comiti; Luca Demarchi; Diego Garcia de Jalon; Marta González del Tánago; Robert Grabowski; I. D. M. Gunn; Helmut Habersack; D. Hendriks; A. J. Henshaw; M. Klösch; B. Lastoria; A. Latapie; Paweł Marcinkowski; Vanesa Martinez Fernandez; E. Mosselman; J. O. Mountford; L. Nardi; Tomasz Okruszko; M. T. O’Hare; M. Palma; C. Percopo; Nicola Surian; W. Van De Bund; C. Weissteiner; L. Ziliani. 2015. "A multi-scale hierarchical framework for developing understanding of river behaviour to support river management." Aquatic Sciences 78, no. 1: 1-16.