The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.
Here, we present and release the Global Rainfall Erosivity Database (GloREDa), a multi-source platform containing rainfall erosivity values for almost 4000 stations globally. The database was compiled through a global collaboration between a network of researchers, meteorological services and environmental organisations from 65 countries. GloREDa is the first open access database of rainfall erosivity (R-factor) based on hourly and sub-hourly rainfall records at a global scale. This database is now stored and accessible for download in the long-term European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC) repository of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre. This will ensure the further development of the database with insertions of new records, maintenance of the data and provision of a helpdesk.
Climate change and projected temperature increase is recognised to have significant impact on agricultural production and crop phenology. This study evaluated the climate change impact on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in the boundaries of two largest catchments in Poland - the Vistula and the Odra. For this purpose, an agro-hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool has been used, driven by climate forcing data provided within the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment - European Domain experiment projected to the year 2100 under two representative concentration pathways: 4.5 and 8.5. The projected warmer climate significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and harvest dates. The rate of acceleration was dependent on the time horizon and representative concentration pathways scenario. In general, the rate of sowing/harvest advance was accelerating in time and, also from representative concentration pathways 4.5 to 8.5, reaching 23 days for spring barley and 30 days for maize (ensemble mean for the far future under representative concentration pathways 8.5).
The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases.
Most European riverine ecosystems suffer from the negative influence of impoundments on flow regime. Downstream effects of dams lead to a number of environmental and socioeconomic risks and, therefore, should be thoroughly examined in specific contexts. Our study aims to quantify the downstream effects of the Siemianówka Reservoir (Upper Narew, Poland), using statistical analysis of key elements of the river’s flow regime, such as the flow duration and recurrence of floods and droughts. In a comparative study on control catchments not influenced by impoundments (the Supraśl and Narewka Rivers), we revealed the following downstream effects of the analyzed dam: significant shortening of spring floods, reduction of the duration and depth of summer droughts, decrease of the maximum discharge, and homogenization of the discharge hydrographs. Although we determined a significant decrease in the duration of summer floods in the “before” and “after” dam function periods, we showed that this issue is regional, climate-related, and replicated in control catchments, rather than an evident downstream effect of the dam. We conclude that significant hydrological downstream effects of the Siemianówka dam–reservoir system could have been the main driver inducing the deterioration of the anastomosing stretch of the Narew River downstream of the dam.