It is widely accepted that changes in the environment affect mean trait expression, but little is known about how the environment shapes intra-individual and intra-population variance. Theory suggests that intra-individual variance might be plastic and under natural selection, rather than reflecting developmental noise, but evidence for this hypothesis is scarce. Here, we experimentally tested whether differences in intrinsic environmental predictability affect intra-individual and intra-population variability of different reproductive traits, and whether intra-individual variability is under selection. Under field conditions, we subjected Onobrychis viciifolia to more and less predictable precipitation over 4 generations and 4 years. We analysed effects on the coefficient of intra-individual variation (CV_i-i) and the coefficient of intra-population variation (CV_i-p), assessed whether the coefficients of intra-individual variation (CsV_i-i) are under natural selection and tested for transgenerational responses (ancestor environmental effects on offspring). Less predictable precipitation led to higher CsV_i-i and CsV_i-p, consistent with plastic responses. The CsV_i-i of all studied traits were under consistent stabilizing selection, and precipitation predictability affected the strength of selection and the location of the optimal CV_i-i of a single trait. All CsV_i-i differed from the optimal CV_i-i and the maternal and offspring CsV_i-i were positively correlated, showing that there was scope for change. Nevertheless, no consistent transgenerational effects were found in any of the three descendant generations, which contrasts with recent studies that detected rapid transgenerational responses in the trait means of different plant species. This suggests that changes in intra-individual variability take longer to evolve than changes in trait means, which may explain why high intra-individual variability is maintained, despite the stabilizing selection. The results indicate that plastic changes of intra-individual variability are an important determinant of whether plants will be able to cope with changes in environmental predictability induced by the currently observed climatic change.

Climate-change induced warmer spring temperatures advance tree leaf-out and result in earlier shading of the forest floor. Climate change also leads to more frequent droughts. Forest understorey herbs may respond to these environmental changes by varying traits at different hierarchical levels of organization. While trait mean variation at the inter-individual level in response to environmental changes is well-studied, little is known about how variation at the intra-individual level responds. We sampled genets of the forest understorey herb Galium odoratum from 21 populations in three regions in Germany, varying in microclimatic conditions. The genets were transplanted into a common garden, where we applied shading and drought treatments. We measured plant height and leaf length and width, and calculated the coefficient of variation (CV) at different hierarchical levels: intra-population, intra-genet, intra-ramet and intra-shoot. Variance partitioning showed that intra-shoot CV represented most of the total variation, followed by intra-ramet CV. We found significant variation in CV of plant height and leaf width among populations of origin, indicating that CV is at least partly genetically based. The soil temperature at populations’ origins correlated negatively with CV in plant height, suggesting adaptation to local conditions. Furthermore, we observed that early shade led to increased intra-ramet CV in leaf length, while drought reduced intra-shoot CV in leaf width. Finally, intra-shoot leaf width mean and CV were independent under control conditions but correlated under drought. Our experimental results reveal correlations of intra-individual variation with soil temperature, indicating that intra-individual variation can evolve and may be adaptive. Intra-individual variation responded plastically to drought and shading, suggesting functional changes to improve light capture and reduce evapotranspiration. In conclusion, intra-individual variation makes up the majority of total trait variation in this species and can play a key role in plant adaptation to climatic change.