The current single gas prediction model is not sufficient for identifying and processing all the characteristics of mine gas concentration time series data. This paper proposes an ARIMA-LSTM combined forecasting model based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network. In the ARIMA-LSTM model, the ARIMA model is used to process the historical data of gas time series and obtain the corresponding linear prediction results and residual series. The LSTM model is used in further analysis of the residual series, predicting the nonlinear factors in the residual series. The prediction results of the combined model are compared separately with those of the two single models. Finally, RMSE, MAPE and R² are used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the three models. The results of the study show that the metrics of the combined ARIMA-LSTM model are R² = 0.9825, MAPE = 0.0124 and RMSE = 0.083. The combined model has the highest prediction accuracy and the lowest error and is more suitable for the predictive analysis of gas data. By comparing the prediction results of a single model and the combined model on gas time series data, the applicability, validity and scientificity of the combined model proposed in this paper are verified, which is of great importance to accurate prediction and early warning of underground gas danger in coal mines.

In the process of gas prediction and early warning, outliers in the data series are often discarded. There is also a likelihood of missing key information in the analysis process. To this end, this paper proposes an early warning model of coal face gas multifactor coupling relationship analysis. The model contains the k-means algorithm based on initial cluster center optimization and an Apriori algorithm based on weight optimization. Optimizing the initial cluster center of all data is achieved using the cluster center of the preorder data subset, so as to optimize the k-means algorithm. The optimized algorithm is used to filter out the outliers in the collected data set to obtain the data set of outliers. Then, the Apriori algorithm is optimized so that it can identify more important information that appears less frequently in the events. It is also used to mine and analyze the association rules of abnormal values and obtain interesting association rule events among the gas outliers in different dimensions. Finally, four warning levels of gas risk are set according to different confidence intervals, the truth and reliable warning results are obtained. By mining association rules between abnormal data in different dimensions, the validity and effectiveness of the gas early warning model proposed in this paper are verified. Realizing the classification of early warning of gas risks has important practical significance for improving the safety of coal mines.

In the traditional coal-mine gas-concentration prediction process, problems such as low timeliness of data and low efficiency of the prediction model in learning data features result in low accuracy of the final prediction. To solve these problems, a gas-concentration prediction method driven by the Spark Streaming framework is proposed. In this research study, the Spark Streaming framework, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and support vector machine (SVM) model are used to construct a new prediction model called the SPARS model. The Spark Streaming framework is used to process large batches of real-time streaming data in a short period of time, and the model can be used to intermittently update and optimize the prediction model so that the model can fully learn the characteristics of the data. At the same time, the advantages of the ARIMA model and SVM model for processing linear data and nonlinear data are combined to improve the model’s prediction efficiency and fully reflect the timeliness of gas prediction. Finally, the proposed prediction model is verified using gas data collected on site. The optimal learning time for the SPARS model in predicting this set of data is determined, and a comparative analysis of the prediction results obtained from the ARIMA, SVM and other models fully confirms that high-precision prediction results can be obtained using the SPARS model. The proposed model can be used to realize scientific and accurate real-time prediction and analyses of coal-mine gas concentrations and provides a new idea for realizing real-time and accurate gas prediction in coal mines.

The accurate prediction of gas emissions has important guiding significance for the prevention and control of gas disasters in order to further improve the prediction accuracy of gas emissions in the mining face. According to the absolute gas emission monitoring data of the 1417 working face in a coal mine in Shaanxi Province, a GA-VMD-SSA-LSTM gas emission prediction model (GVSL) based on genetic algorithm (GA)-optimized variational mode decomposition (VMD) and sparrow search algorithm (SSA)-optimized long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed. Firstly, a VMD evaluation standard for evaluating the amount of decomposition loss is proposed. Under this standard, the GA is used to find the optimal parameters of the VMD. Then, the SSA is used to optimize the key parameters of the LSTM to establish a GVSL prediction model. The model predicts each component and finally superimposes the prediction results for each component to obtain the final gas emission result. The results show that the accuracy of the evaluation indexes of the GVSL model and VMD-LSTM model, as well as the SSA-LSTM model and Gaussian process regression (GPR) model, are compared and analyzed horizontally and vertically under three scenarios with prediction sets of 121,94 and 57 groups. The GVSL model has the best prediction effect, and its fitting degree R2 values are 0.95, 0.96, and 0.99, which confirms the effectiveness of the proposed GVSL model for the time series prediction of gas emission in the mining face.

Addressing common challenges such as limited indicators, poor adaptability, and imprecise modeling in gas pre-warning systems for driving faces, this study proposes a hybrid predictive and pre-warning model grounded in time-series analysis. The aim is to tackle the effects of broad application across diverse mines and insufficient data on warning accuracy. Firstly, we introduce an adaptive normalization (AN) model for standardizing gas sequence data, prioritizing recent information to better capture the time-series characteristics of gas readings. Coupled with the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model, AN demonstrates superior forecasting performance compared to other standardization techniques. Next, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is used for feature extraction, guiding the selection of the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) order. Minimal decomposition errors validate the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, enhancements to the transformer framework are made to manage non-linearities, overcome gradient vanishing, and effectively analyze long time-series sequences. To boost versatility across different mining scenarios, the Optuna framework facilitates multiparameter optimization, with xgbRegressor employed for accurate error assessment. Predictive outputs are benchmarked against Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), GRU, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), where the hybrid model achieves an R-squared value of 0.980975 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.000149, highlighting its top performance. To cope with data scarcity, bootstrapping is applied to estimate the confidence intervals of the hybrid model. Dimensional analysis aids in creating real-time, relative gas emission metrics, while persistent anomaly detection monitors sudden time-series spikes, enabling unsupervised early alerts for gas bursts. This model demonstrates strong predictive prowess and effective pre-warning capabilities, offering technological reinforcement for advancing intelligent coal mine operations.

Coal and gas outbursts pose significant threats to underground personnel, making the development of accurate prediction models crucial for reducing casualties. By addressing the challenges of highly nonlinear relationships among predictive parameters, poor interpretability of models, and limited sample data in existing studies, this paper proposes an interpretable Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves–Transformer–Support Vector Machine (AFT-Transformer-SVM) model with high predictive accuracy. The Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves (AFT) algorithm is employed to optimise a Transformer-based feature extraction, thereby reducing the degree of nonlinearity among sample data. A Transformer-SVM model is constructed, wherein the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model provides negative feedback to refine the Transformer feature extraction, enhancing the prediction accuracy of coal and gas outbursts. Various classification assessment methods, such as TP, TN, FP, FN tables, and SHAP analysis, are utilised to improve the interpretability of the model. Additionally, the permutation feature importance (PFI) method is applied to conduct a sensitivity analysis, elucidating the relationship between the sample data and outburst risks. Through a comparative analysis with algorithms such as eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), radial basis function networks (RBFNs), and Bayesian classifiers, the proposed method demonstrates superior accuracy and effectively predicts coal and gas outburst risks, achieving 100% accuracy in the sample dataset. The influence of parameters on the model is analysed, highlighting that the coal seam gas content is the primary factor driving the outburst risks. The proposed approach provides technical support for coal and gas outburst predictions across different mines, enhancing emergency response and prevention capabilities for underground mining operations.