Significance: Devising sustainable climate change mitigation policies with attention to potential synergies and constraints within the climate–energy–water nexus is the subject of ongoing integrated modeling efforts. This study employs a regional integrated assessment model and a regional Earth system model at high spatial and temporal resolutions in the Unites States to compare the implications of two of the representative concentration pathways under consistent socioeconomics. The results clearly show, for the first time to our knowledge, that climate change mitigation policies, if not designed with careful attention to water resources, could increase the magnitude, spatial coverage, and frequency of water deficits. The results challenge the general perception that mitigation that aims at reducing warming also would alleviate water deficits in the future.

In this article, a new index, the visible and shortwave infrared drought index (VSDI), is proposed for monitoring both soil and vegetation moisture using optical spectral bands. VSDI is defined as , where ρ represents the reflectance of shortwave infrared (SWIR) red and blue channels, respectively. VSDI is theoretically based on the difference between moisture-sensitive bands (SWIR and red) and moisture reference band (blue), and is expected to be efficient for agricultural drought monitoring over different land-cover types during the plant-growing season. The fractional water index (FWI) derived from 49 Mesonet stations over nine climate divisions (CDs) across Oklahoma are used as ground truth data and VSDI is compared with three other drought indices. The results show that VSDI generally presents the highest correlation with FWI among the four indices, either for whole sites or for individual CDs. The NDVI threshold method is applied to demonstrate the satisfactory performance of VSDI over different land-cover types. A time-lag analysis is also conducted and suggests that VSDI can be used as a real-time drought indicator with a time lag of less than 8 days. The VSDI drought maps are produced and compared with the US Drought Monitor (USDM) maps. A good agreement has been observed between the two products, and finer spatial information is also found in VSDI. In conclusion, VSDI appears to be a real-time drought indicator that is applicable over different land-cover types and is suitable for drought monitoring through the plant-growing season.

An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle, and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion with a land surface hydrology–routing–water resources management model. To reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi, and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit (unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows that supply deficit over the Missouri River Basin sees an increasing sensitivity to changes in demand in future periods. It further shows that the supply deficit is six times as sensitive as the actual supply to changes in flow and demand. A spatial analysis of the supply deficit demonstrates vulnerabilities of urban areas located along mainstream with limited storage.