Transitional waters are fragile ecosystems with high ecological, social and economic values, that undergo numerous threats. According to the information provided by European Member States in the framework of the European Directive 92/43/EEC (Habitat Directive), the main threat to these ecosystems is represented by morphological and hydrological changes. The present work focuses on six lagoon fish species included in the Habitat Directive annex II (species requiring conservation measures: Aphanius fasciatus, A. iberus, Knipowitschia panizzae, Ninnigobius canestrinii, Valencia hispanica and V. letourneuxi) that spend their entire life cycle in the Mediterranean priority habitat 1150* “Coastal lagoons”. The overview of the current scientific literature allowed us to highlight how the presence and abundance of these species may provide important indications on the conservation status of coastal lagoon habitats. In fact, their occurrence, distribution and biology depend on the presence of peculiar structures, such as salt marshes, small channels, isolated pools and oligohaline areas. Coastal lagoon fragmentation and habitat loss have led to a significant reduction in genetic diversity or local population extinction. Although Aphanius and gobies have been shown to survive in eutrophic environments, it is clear that they cannot complete their life cycle without salt marshes (mainly Aphanius) and wetland areas (mainly gobies).

Climate change is altering the functioning of ecosystems and species distribution worldwide, with negative impacts on human activities, including fisheries. The Adriatic Sea is an extremely productive area for fisheries, due to the strong outflow of nutrients from rivers and the periodic mixing of nutrients from the Mediterranean. However, the Adriatic Sea is also a semi-closed basin, where species do not have the ability to move to higher latitudes to avoid warming of the waters. Climate change acts on biodiversity in a variety of ways, such as causing changes in the trophic network—favoring the intake of thermophilic alien species, often in competition with local species—and altering the biological cycles of acclimatized marine species to temperate–cold climates. These problems become critical factors for the survival of species and for fisheries relying on these resources. Within this context, to have estimates of possible modifications of the nektonic community in the near future could be quite useful for preparing adaptation plans. In this paper, using Maximum Entropy models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, we estimated the future habitat suitability for a set of marine nektonic species of different thermal affinity (e.g., cold, temperate and warm species) within GSA17 (Northern and Central Adriatic Sea), among the most productive—and most exploited—areas of the Mediterranean Sea. This study shows how, at the current pace, climate change could modify marine ecosystems to the extent that future habitat suitability will decrease for nearly half of the species considered, with a decrease in landings from 13.5 to 86.9%, depending on the scenario. Only for the blue crab Callinectes sapidus has an increase in habitat suitability been observed. For most of the species considered, temperature was the most important variable to explain the probability of relative presence within the GSA17. On the other hand, GSA17 climatic conditions in the near future under the tested scenarios could become a suitable environment for tropical species, which could find here a suitable habitat, at least in terms of thermal features. Results of the present study can help the management of fishery resources and local markets in the near future, providing information to predict changes in the composition of the aquatic community and draw up management plans that take into account the effects of climate change.

The genetic structure of Aphanius fasciatus populations has been analysed using two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers (16S rRNA and D-loop) obtained from specimens collected in nine sites from the Venice lagoon, Comacchio saltworks and Corsica. Available GenBank sequences were also included, in order to extend the results on a Mediterranean scale. Genetic polymorphism within the Venice lagoon was very low, with most of the specimens analysed (66% for 16S rRNA and 83% for D-loop) sharing the same haplotype for either of the two markers. The genetic homogeneity found within the Venice lagoon may be the consequence of the northward migration of southern Adriatic populations after the Last Glacial Maximum: mismatch analysis showed indeed clear signs of a rapid demographic and spatial expansion. To explain this genetic homogeneity other hypotheses were also suggested, such as adaptation to the high variability of brackish water habitats, and artificial introductions. On a Mediterranean scale, phylogenetic analyses showed the presence of five distinct geographical lineages: Aegean Sea, Greek coast of the Ionian Sea, Adriatic Sea, Tyrrhenian Sea and Southern Sicily. Analysis of molecular variance revealed a genetic partitioning mainly due to differences between groups presumably due to late Miocene geological events, while less polymorphism was present within groups and populations.