Climate change is altering the functioning of ecosystems and species distribution worldwide, with negative impacts on human activities, including fisheries. The Adriatic Sea is an extremely productive area for fisheries, due to the strong outflow of nutrients from rivers and the periodic mixing of nutrients from the Mediterranean. However, the Adriatic Sea is also a semi-closed basin, where species do not have the ability to move to higher latitudes to avoid warming of the waters. Climate change acts on biodiversity in a variety of ways, such as causing changes in the trophic network—favoring the intake of thermophilic alien species, often in competition with local species—and altering the biological cycles of acclimatized marine species to temperate–cold climates. These problems become critical factors for the survival of species and for fisheries relying on these resources. Within this context, to have estimates of possible modifications of the nektonic community in the near future could be quite useful for preparing adaptation plans. In this paper, using Maximum Entropy models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, we estimated the future habitat suitability for a set of marine nektonic species of different thermal affinity (e.g., cold, temperate and warm species) within GSA17 (Northern and Central Adriatic Sea), among the most productive—and most exploited—areas of the Mediterranean Sea. This study shows how, at the current pace, climate change could modify marine ecosystems to the extent that future habitat suitability will decrease for nearly half of the species considered, with a decrease in landings from 13.5 to 86.9%, depending on the scenario. Only for the blue crab Callinectes sapidus has an increase in habitat suitability been observed. For most of the species considered, temperature was the most important variable to explain the probability of relative presence within the GSA17. On the other hand, GSA17 climatic conditions in the near future under the tested scenarios could become a suitable environment for tropical species, which could find here a suitable habitat, at least in terms of thermal features. Results of the present study can help the management of fishery resources and local markets in the near future, providing information to predict changes in the composition of the aquatic community and draw up management plans that take into account the effects of climate change.

Recreational fishing is practiced by thousands of people in European coastal waters and is steadily gaining popularity. Serving multiple purposes, recreational fishing provides fresh fish for meals, offers leisure, and contributes to traditional ecological knowledge, especially at the local level. Therefore, analyzing its dynamics and catch is a complex task, since they not only depend on the environmental features but also on the behavior of fishers. In coastal areas, however, most recreational fishers remain unmonitored, making it difficult to obtain data on their impact on fish stocks. This is particularly evident in the Venice lagoon, where we conducted a comprehensive study aiming to characterize recreational fishing dynamics. We collected data through interviews, online questionnaires, and remote sensing techniques, including satellite imagery photointerpretation and machine learning algorithms. Our findings reveal spatial and temporal variations in fishing activity, with certain areas and times experiencing higher fishing pressure. This highlights a seasonality in fishing activity and a pattern in fishers’ behaviors that are associated with fish migratory dynamics. Such an association demonstrates the local fishers’ understanding of the fish lifecycle phases and the environmental conditions of the lagoon. Regarding the catch, the most targeted species are seabream (Sparus aurata), seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax), and cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis), with estimated total catches of 18.65 t per year, 15.82 t per year, and 8.36 t per year, respectively. However, our results showed a significant disproportion between the biomass caught by two different groups of fishers that differ in terms of fishing trip frequency, success rate, and catch. While the average catch of the first group, representing most recreational fishers, might be considered of low impact, the catch of the second group, encompassing recreational fishers who fish with very high frequency and efficiency, is substantial in the context of the lagoon ecosystem. Indeed, even considering a conservative estimate, recreational fishing in the Venice lagoon accounted for approximately 2% of the catch of cuttlefish and 17% of the catch of seabream compared to commercial fishing catch, whereas the catch of seabass by recreational fishing approached that of commercial fishing. Therefore, the implementation of a periodic monitoring program utilizing methods such as machine learning algorithms and remote sensing technologies could support the management of recreational fishing dynamics. We also suggest that participatory processes involving both professional and recreational fishers may aid in defining shared approaches and bottom–up initiatives, ensuring enjoyment as well as sustainable uses of coastal areas.