T'ai G. W. Forte

Dr. T'ai G. W. Forte

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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

8Years (2019-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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11 February 2022 in Global Change Biology
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Journal Article
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JLJonas Lembrechts
Jonas Lembrechts
JHJohan van Den Hoogen
Johan van Den Hoogen
JAJuha Aalto
Juha Aalto
MAMichael B. Ashcroft
Michael B. Ashcroft
PFPieter De Frenne
Pieter De Frenne
JLJonathan Lenoir
Jonathan Lenoir
Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1‐km2resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1‐km2pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse‐grained air temperature estimates from ERA5‐Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome‐specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near‐surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil‐related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

20 April 2020 in Global Change Biology
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Journal Article
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JLJonas Lembrechts
Jonas Lembrechts
JAJuha Aalto
Juha Aalto
MAMichael Ashcroft
Michael Ashcroft
PFPieter De Frenne
Pieter De Frenne
MKMartin Kopecký
Martin Kopecký
INIvan Nijs
Ivan Nijs

8 January 2024 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Journal Article
Open access
MSMelinda D. Smith
Melinda D. Smith
KWKate D. Wilkins
Kate D. Wilkins
MHMartin Holdrege
Martin Holdrege
PWPeter Wilfahrt
Peter Wilfahrt
SCScott L. Collins
Scott L. Collins
XZXiaoan Zuo
Xiaoan Zuo
Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

17 April 2024 in Nature
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Journal Article
Open access
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SMS. L. Maes
S. L. Maes
JDJ. Dietrich
J. Dietrich
GMG. Midolo
G. Midolo
SSS. Schwieger
S. Schwieger
MKM. Kummu
M. Kummu
EDE. Dorrepaal
E. Dorrepaal
Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon1,2. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere3,4. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain5–7. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections7,8. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

16 October 2025 in Science
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
TOTimothy Ohlert
Timothy Ohlert
MSMelinda D. Smith
Melinda D. Smith
SCScott L. Collins
Scott L. Collins
AKAlan K. Knapp
Alan K. Knapp
JDJeffrey S. Dukes
Jeffrey S. Dukes
XZXiaoan Zuo
Xiaoan Zuo
As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate to multiyear drought, with constant or diminishing reductions in productivity as drought duration increases. We quantified the combined effects of drought duration and intensity on aboveground productivity in 74 grasslands and shrublands distributed globally. Ecosystem acclimation with multiyear drought was observed overall, except when droughts were extreme (i.e., ≤1-in-100-year likelihood of occurrence). Productivity losses after four consecutive years of extreme drought increased by ~2.5-fold compared with those of the first year. These results portend a foundational shift in ecosystem behavior if drought duration and intensity increase, from maintenance of reduced functioning over time to progressive and profound losses of productivity when droughts are extreme.

4 October 2024 in Science Advances
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Journal Article
Open access
BSBaoku Shi
Baoku Shi
MDManuel Delgado-Baquerizo
Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo
AKAlan K. Knapp
Alan K. Knapp
MSMelinda D. Smith
Melinda D. Smith
SRSasha Reed
Sasha Reed
WSWei Sun
Wei Sun
The increasing prevalence of drought events in grasslands and shrublands worldwide potentially has impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC). We leveraged the International Drought Experiment to study how SOC, including particulate organic carbon (POC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) concentrations, responds to extreme drought treatments (1-in-100-year) for 1 to 5 years at 19 sites worldwide. In more mesic areas (aridity index > 0.65), SOC and POC concentrations decreased by 7.9% (±3.9) and 15.9% (±6.2) with drought, respectively, but there were no impacts on MAOC concentrations. However, drought had no impact on SOC, POC, or MAOC concentrations in drylands (aridity index < 0.65). The response of SOC to drought varied along an aridity gradient, concomitant with interannual precipitation variability and standing SOC concentration gradients. These findings highlight the differing response magnitudes of POC and MAOC concentrations to drought and the key regulating role of aridity.