With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modelling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modelling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency, and their fits are assessed in terms of five criteria. Conclusions are drawn on the best fitting models, forecasts and acceptability of value at risk estimates.
We analyze statistical properties of the largest cryptocurrencies (determined by market capitalization), of which Bitcoin is the most prominent example. We characterize their exchange rates versus the U.S. Dollar by fitting parametric distributions to them. It is shown that returns are clearly non-normal, however, no single distribution fits well jointly to all the cryptocurrencies analysed. We find that for the most popular currencies, such as Bitcoin and Litecoin, the generalized hyperbolic distribution gives the best fit, while for the smaller cryptocurrencies the normal inverse Gaussian distribution, generalized t distribution, and Laplace distribution give good fits. The results are important for investment and risk management purposes.
Cryptocurrencies became popular with the emergence of Bitcoin and have shown an unprecedented growth over the last few years. As of November 2016, more than 720 cryptocurrencies exist, with Bitcoin still being the most popular one. We provide both a statistical analysis as well as an extreme value analysis of the returns of the most important cryptocurrencies. A particular focus is on the tail risk characteristics and we will provide an in-depth univariate and multivariate extreme value analysis. The tail dependence of cryptocurrencies is investigated (using both empirical and Gaussian copulas). For investors—especially institutional ones—as well as regulators, an understanding of the risk and tail characteristics are of utmost importance. For cryptocurrencies to become a mainstream investable asset class, studying these properties is necessary. Our findings show that cryptocurrencies exhibit strong non-normal characteristics, large tail dependencies, depending on the particular cryptocurrencies and heavy tails. Statistical similarities can be observed for cryptocurrencies that share the same underlying technology. This has implications for risk management, financial engineering (such as derivatives on cryptocurrencies)—both from an investor’s as well as from a regulator’s point of view. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed study looking at the extreme value behaviour of cryptocurrencies, their correlations and tail dependencies as well as their statistical properties.
This white paper explores the construction of a reliable Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scoring engine, with a focus on the importance of data sources and quality, selection of ESG indicators, weighting and aggregation methodologies, and the necessary validation and benchmarking procedures. The current challenges in ESG scoring and the importance of a robust ESG scoring system are addressed, citing its increasing relevance to stakeholders. Furthermore, different data types, namely self-reported data, third-party data, and alternative data, are critically evaluated for their respective merits and limitations. The paper further elucidates the complexities and implications involved in the choice of ESG indicators, illustrating the trade-offs between standardized and customized approaches. Various weighting methodologies including equal weighting, factor weighting, and multi-criteria decision analysis are dissected. The paper culminates in outlining processes for validating the ESG scoring engine, emphasizing the correlation with financial performance, and conducting robustness and sensitivity analyses. Practical examples through case studies exemplify the implementation of the discussed techniques. The white paper aims to provide insights and guidelines for practitioners, academics, and policy makers in designing and implementing robust ESG scoring systems.