Volcanoes are the main pathway to the surface for volatiles that are stored within the Earth. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is of particular interest because of its potential for climate forcing. Understanding the balance of CO₂ that is transferred from the Earth’s surface to the Earth’s interior, hinges on accurate quantification of the long-term emissions of volcanic CO₂ to the atmosphere. Here we present an updated evaluation of the world’s volcanic CO₂ emissions that takes advantage of recent improvements in satellite-based monitoring of sulfur dioxide, the establishment of ground-based networks for semi-continuous CO₂-SO₂ gas sensing and a new approach to estimate key volcanic gas parameters based on magma compositions. Our results reveal a global volcanic CO₂ flux of 51.3 ± 5.7 Tg CO₂/y (11.7 × 10¹¹ mol CO₂/y) for non-eruptive degassing and 1.8 ± 0.9 Tg/y for eruptive degassing during the period from 2005 to 2015. While lower than recent estimates, this global volcanic flux implies that a significant proportion of the surface-derived CO₂ subducted into the Earth’s mantle is either stored below the arc crust, is efficiently consumed by microbial activity before entering the deeper parts of the subduction system, or becomes recycled into the deep mantle to potentially form diamonds.

During the reawaking of a volcano, magmas migrating through the shallow crust have to pass through hydrothermal fluids and rocks. The resulting magma–hydrothermal interactions are still poorly understood, which impairs the ability to interpret volcano monitoring signals and perform hazard assessments. Here we use the results of physical and volatile saturation models to demonstrate that magmatic volatiles released by decompressing magmas at a critical degassing pressure (CDP) can drive volcanic unrest towards a critical state. We show that, at the CDP, the abrupt and voluminous release of H₂O-rich magmatic gases can heat hydrothermal fluids and rocks, triggering an accelerating deformation that can ultimately culminate in rock failure and eruption. We propose that magma could be approaching the CDP at Campi Flegrei, a volcano in the metropolitan area of Naples, one of the most densely inhabited areas in the world, and where accelerating deformation and heating are currently being observed.

The global carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux from subaerial volcanoes remains poorly quantified, limiting our understanding of the deep carbon cycle during geologic time and in modern Earth. Past attempts to extrapolate the global volcanic CO₂ flux have been biased by observations being available for a relatively small number of accessible volcanoes. Here, we propose that the strong, but yet unmeasured, CO₂ emissions from several remote degassing volcanoes worldwide can be predicted using regional/global relationships between the CO₂/S_T ratio of volcanic gases and whole-rock trace element compositions (e.g., Ba/La). From these globally linked gas/rock compositions, we predict the CO₂/S_T gas ratio of 34 top-degassing remote volcanoes with no available gas measurements. By scaling to volcanic SO₂ fluxes from a global catalogue, we estimate a cumulative “unmeasured” CO₂ output of 11.4 ± 1.1 Mt/yr (or 0.26 ± 0.02·10¹² mol/yr). In combination with the measured CO₂ output of 27.4 ± 3.6 Mt/yr (or 0.62 ± 0.08·10¹² mol/yr), our results constrain the time-averaged (2005–2015) cumulative CO₂ flux from the Earth’s 91 most actively degassing subaerial volcanoes at 38.7 ± 2.9 Mt/yr (or 0.88 ± 0.06·10¹² mol/yr).

The fumarolic gas output has not been quantified for any of the currently deforming calderas worldwide, due to the lack of suitable gas flux sensing techniques. In view of resumption of ground uplift (since 2005) and the associated variations in gas chemistry, Campi Flegrei, in southern Italy, is one of the restless calderas where gas flux observations are especially necessary. Here we report the first ever obtained estimate of the Campi Flegrei fumarolic gas output, based on a set of MultiGAS surveys (performed in 2012 and 2013) with an ad‐hoc‐designed measurement setup. We estimate that the current Campi Flegrei fumarolic sulphur (S) flux is low, on the order of 1.5–2.2 tons/day, suggesting substantial scrubbing of magmatic S by the hydrothermal system. However, the fumarolic carbon dioxide (CO₂) output is ∼460±160 tons/day (mean±SD), which is surprisingly high for a dormant volcano in the hydrothermal stage of activity, and results in a combined (fumaroles + soil) CO₂ output of ∼1560 tons/day. Assuming magma to be the predominant source, we propose that the current CO₂ output can be supplied by either (i) a large (0.6–4.6 km³), deeply stored (>7 km) magmatic source with low CO₂ contents (0.05–0.1 wt%) or (ii) by a small to medium‐sized (∼0.01–0.1 km³) but CO₂‐rich (2 wt%) magma, possibly stored at pressures of ∼100 to 120 MPa. Independent geophysical evidence (e.g., inferred from geodetic and gravity data) is needed to distinguish between these two possibilities.

Recent Icelandic rifting events have illuminated the roles of centralized crustal magma reservoirs and lateral magma transport^1–4, important characteristics of mid-ocean ridge magmatism^1,5. A consequence of such shallow crustal processing of magmas^4,5 is the overprinting of signatures that trace the origin, evolution and transport of melts in the uppermost mantle and lowermost crust^6,7. Here we present unique insights into processes occurring in this zone from integrated petrologic and geochemical studies of the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland. Geochemical analyses of basalts erupted during the first 50 days of the eruption, combined with associated gas emissions, reveal direct sourcing from a near-Moho magma storage zone. Geochemical proxies, which signify different mantle compositions and melting conditions, changed at a rate unparalleled for individual basaltic eruptions globally. Initially, the erupted lava was dominated by melts sourced from the shallowest mantle but over the following three weeks became increasingly dominated by magmas generated at a greater depth. This exceptionally rapid trend in erupted compositions provides an unprecedented temporal record of magma mixing that filters the mantle signal, consistent with processing in near-Moho melt lenses containing 10⁷–10⁸ m³ of basaltic magma. Exposing previously inaccessible parts of this key magma processing zone to near-real-time investigations provides new insights into the timescales and operational mode of basaltic magma systems.