Concerning the significant increase in the negative effects of flash-floods worldwide, the main goal of this research is to evaluate the power of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fi (kNN), K-Star (KS) algorithms and their ensembles in flash-flood susceptibility mapping. To train the two stand-alone models and their ensembles, for the first stage, the areas affected in the past by torrential phenomena are identified using remote sensing techniques. Approximately 70% of these areas are used as a training data set along with 10 flash-flood predictors. It should be remarked that the remote sensing techniques play a crucial role in obtaining eight out of 10 flash-flood conditioning factors. The predictive capability of predictors is evaluated through the Information Gain Ratio (IGR) method. As expected, the slope angle results in the factor with the highest predictive capability. The application of the AHP model implies the construction of ten pair-wise comparison matrices for calculating the normalized weights of each flash-flood predictor. The computed weights are used as input data in kNN–AHP and KS–AHP ensemble models for calculating the Flash-Flood Potential Index (FFPI). The FFPI also is determined through kNN and KS stand-alone models. The performance of the models is evaluated using statistical metrics (i.e., sensitivity, specificity and accuracy) while the validation of the results is done by constructing the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve and Area Under Curve (AUC) values and by calculating the density of torrential pixels within FFPI classes. Overall, the best performance is obtained by the kNN–AHP ensemble model.
Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRESs) have been touted as an appropriate way for supplying electricity to remote and off-grid areas in developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where rural electrification challenges are the most pronounced. This study proposes a two-step methodology for optimizing and analyzing a stand-alone photovoltaic/wind/battery/diesel hybrid system to meet the electricity needs of Fanisua, an off-grid and remote village of northern Nigeria. In the first step, the MATLAB environment was used to run simulations and optimize the system via the genetic algorithm. Then, techno-economic and emissions analysis was carried out in the second step to compare the proposed system to the existing traditional modes of rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, namely, the grid-extension and diesel generator. The break-even distance parameter was adopted in the comparison with grid-extension. Besides, the hypothetical project of replacing the diesel generator by the optimal system was analyzed using the Simple Payback Period (SPP) and Net Present Value (NPV) parameters. The resulting optimal design architecture included an 89.271-kW photovoltaic array, a 100.31-W diesel generator, and 148 batteries with a total annualized cost (TAC) and cost of energy (COE) of USD 43,807 and USD 0.25/kWh, respectively. The break-even distance found was 16.2 km, while the NPV and SPP of the hypothetical project were USD 572,382 and 2.8 years, respectively. The savings in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the proposed system compared to the grid extension and the diesel generator were found to be 85,401.08 kg/year and 122,062.85 kg/year, respectively. This study highlighted the role that solar PV-based HRESs could play in the sustainable electricity supply in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa.
4 December 2023 in Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence