This paper is effectively a scenario analysis of the energy system of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) from the perspective of the possible future reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the power generation sector, with the aim to become climate neutral by 2050, in compliance with the Green Agenda for the Western Balkan. According to the data from 2016, the share of power generation in the total GHG emissions in BiH was approximately 50%. By using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) energy model, two scenarios—the “gradual transition scenario” and the “climate neutral” scenario—have been analyzed for the period 2018–2050, and each scenario included decarbonization measures such as the extensive use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Unlike the climate neutral scenario, the gradual transition scenario includes the replacement of certain parts of the old, currently-in-operation Coal-fired Power Plants (CFPPs) with the new CFPP, which is more efficient. In the climate-neutral scenario, that part of the existing CFPPs is replaced by a mix of RESs. The results from the first scenario suggest that the share of CFPPs in electricity generation has gradually decreased from 69.3% to 16.3% in 2050, and CO2 emissions from the power generation sector in 2050 will be 2.2 million tons—roughly 83.5% less than in 2014. According to the second scenario, the emphasis is strongly on the growth and promotion of RESs, which have significantly taken over the roles of major producers of electricity, encouraging the low-carbon development of BiH. Analysis results show that, in 2050, there will be no CO2 emissions from power generation. It can be concluded that specifically designed energy models for the optimization of capacities and CO2 emissions through convergence towards RESs could be an optimistic and promising option for BiH to become climate neutral while meeting increasing energy demands. The results show the required RES capacities needed for achieving climate-neutral power generation by 2050, with the current rate level of power generation. Based on the results, RES investment needs can be estimated. Overall, the results of the scenarios can be used for the strategic planning of the power generation sector in BiH until 2050.
31 December 2024 in Power Engineering and Engineering Thermophysics
The transition from outdated biomass boiler systems to modern, efficient district heating technologies represents a critical pathway toward sustainable energy production. In this study, the replacement of obsolete solid biomass-fueled boilers with a new wood chip-based heating system in the district heating plant of Pale, Bosnia and Herzegovina, was analyzed under real-world operational conditions. Historical operational data, including annual fuel consumption, were obtained directly from the facility. The degree-day method was applied to evaluate the thermal efficiency of the former heating system and to estimate the annual fuel demand for the newly installed wood chip-based infrastructure. A key component of this transition involves the reliability and efficiency of the wood chip supply chain. Therefore, the logistical feasibility of securing a continuous, local, and renewable wood chip fuel source was examined, including the assessment of storage capacity and supply chain resilience. Furthermore, a scenario-based simulation was conducted to project the cost of heat production under varying fuel price conditions and market dynamics. Through this integrated approach, a replicable methodology was proposed for replacing legacy biomass heating systems with environmentally sustainable, economically viable district heating technologies based on locally sourced wood chips. The findings offer a practical roadmap for municipalities aiming to achieve energy transition targets through the adoption of locally available renewable energy sources, with particular emphasis on operational feasibility, fuel logistics, and cost-effectiveness.