The production of wheat, maize and rice accounts for more than 90% of the total grain production of China. Assessing the impact of climate warming on suitable planting regions, especially the potential northern planting boundaries of these crops, is therefore critical to help guide agricultural policymaking and further maintain food security. In this study, we analyzed the effect of climate warming on the potential northern planting boundaries of three specific crops (winter wheat, spring maize, double and triple rice cropping systems) during two time periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) using meteorological data from 2437 national weather stations. Results show that the potential planting boundaries of these crops present a northward movement and a westward expansion during the time period of 1991–2020 under the background of temperature increase compared with the time period of 1961–1990. Moreover, the boundaries of winter wheat and spring maize also show a trend of expansion to high-altitude areas (e.g., the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau). The average moving distance of these crops ranged from 20 km to 300 km. In general, the potential planting boundaries of winter wheat, spring maize, double and triple rice cropping systems changed significantly due to climate warming, and the suitable planting area was increased. Our study aims to provide a more recent and accurate result than those of previous studies, which is expected to strengthen our understanding of the effect of climate change on the potential northern planting boundaries of the three main grain crops in China.

NDVI data have been widely used to detect and monitor vegetation status at regional, continental, and global scales. FY-3D MERSI-II NDVI (FNDVI) is a critical operational product used in many studies monitoring ecosystems and agriculture and assessing climate change and its risks, including drought and fire. MERSI-II and MODIS have very similar spectral response functions in the red and near-infrared channels, making MERSI/NDVI an effective replacement for MODIS/NDVI (MNDVI). Therefore, it is critical to conduct a thorough evaluation of the product’s quality. In this study, the consistency characteristics of two normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products, FY-3D MERSI-II NDVI and MODIS NDVI, were compared and validated at national and regional scales in China from 2020 to 2021. To assess the consistency of these two NDVI datasets, the correlation coefficient, root-mean-square error, and mean bias error were used. The findings revealed that the spatial distribution patterns of FNDVI and MNDVI were highly consistent across the country at the monthly time scale. The correlation coefficients were greater than 0.9475 for the two years 2020–2021, while the average deviation was between 0.02 and 0.05, and the root-mean-square error was 0.11. Based on the difference in the time consistency between FNDVI and MNDVI, the changes in the monthly NDVI values of the two types of satellites are generally consistent across the country. Among the three typical experimental areas, the relative deviation of the regional time series for products was the highest in Xinjiang. The relative average deviation of FNDVI in other regions was low, and its change trend was consistent with that of MODIS.

NDVI data are crucial for agricultural and environmental research. The Fengyun-3 (FY-3) series satellites are recognized as primary sources for retrieving NDVI products on a global scale. To apply FY-3 NDVI data for long-term studies, such as climate change, this study conducted a thorough evaluation to detect the potentials of the FY-3B and FY-3D satellites for generating a long time series NDVI dataset. For this purpose, the spatiotemporal consistency between the FY-3B and FY-3D satellites was evaluated, and their performances were compared. Then, a grey relational analysis (GRA) method was applied to detect the factors influencing the consistency among the different satellites, and a gradient boosting regression (GBR) model was constructed to create a long-term FY-3 NDVI product. The results indicate an overall high consistency between the FY-3B and FY-3D NDVIs, suggesting that they could be used as complementary datasets for generating a long-term NDVI dataset. The correlations between the FY-3D NDVI and the MODIS NDVI, as well as the leaf area index (LAI) measurements, were both higher than those of FY-3B, which indicates a better performance of FY-3D in retrieving NDVI data. The grey correlation degrees between the NDVI differences and four parameters, which were land cover (LC), DEM, latitude (LAT) and longitude (LON), were calculated, revealing that the LC was the most related to the NDVI differences. Finally, a GBR model with FY-3B NDVI, LC, DEM, LAT and LON as the input variables and FY-3D NDVI as the target variable was established and achieved a robust performance. The R values between the GBR-estimated NDVI and FY-3D NDVI reached 0.947, 0.867 and 0.829 in the training, testing and validation datasets, respectively, indicating the feasibility of the established model for generating long time series NDVI data by combining data from the FY-3B and FY-3D satellites.