Crop phenology is an important parameter for crop growth monitoring, yield prediction, and growth simulation. The dynamic threshold method is widely used to retrieve vegetation phenology from remotely sensed vegetation index time series. However, crop growth is not only driven by natural conditions, but also modified through field management activities. Complicated planting patterns, such as multiple cropping, makes the vegetation index dynamics less symmetrical. These impacts are not considered in current approaches for crop phenology retrieval based on the dynamic threshold method. Thus, this paper aimed to (1) investigate the optimal thresholds for retrieving the start of the season (SOS) and the end of the season (EOS) of different crops, and (2) compare the performances of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) in retrieving crop phenology with a modified version of the dynamic threshold method. The reference data included SOS and EOS ground observations of three major crop types in 2015 and 2016, which includes rice, wheat, and maize. Results show that (1) the modification of the original method ensures a 100% retrieval rate, which was not guaranteed using the original method. The modified dynamic threshold method is more suitable to retrieve crop SOS/EOS because it considers the asymmetry of crop vegetation index time series. (2) It is inappropriate to retrieve SOS and EOS with the same threshold for all crops, and the commonly used 20% or 50% thresholds are not the optimal thresholds for all crops. (3) For single and late rice, the accuracies of the SOS estimations based on EVI are generally higher compared to those based on NDVI. However, for spring maize and summer maize, results based on NDVI give higher accuracies. In terms of EOS, for early rice and summer maize, estimates based on EVI result in higher accuracies, but, for late rice and winter wheat, results based on NDVI are closer to the ground records.

The net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation is an essential factor of ecosystem functions, including the biological geochemical carbon cycle, which is often impacted by climate change and human activities. It plays a significant role in comprehending the nature of carbon balance in an ecosystem and demonstrates the global and regional carbon cycle dynamics. The present study used an upgraded CASA model to calculate the NPP in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. The model’s simulation ability was improved by changing the model parameters. Further, the CASA model was validated by comparing with MODIS-NPP and in situ observed NPP, wherein the accuracy of the CASA model estimation was found satisfactory to estimate NPP changes in the study area. The simulated results of the improved CASA model showed that the mean annual NPP value of vegetation in the YRB was 283.4 gC m^–2 a^–1 from 2001 to 2020, with a declining trend in spatial distribution from south to north. In contrast, the NPP appeared as an increasing trend in the YRB temporally from 212 gC m^–2 a^–1 in 2001 to 342 gC m^–2 a^–1 in 2020, with a mean annual growth rate of 4.6 gC m^–2 a^–1. The total NPP in the YRB increased by 40,088.3 GgC between 2001 and 2020, from 226.06 TgC to 266.15 TgC. This rise can be attributed to the increase in forests. The average grassland area has reduced by 4651 km² during the last two decades, significantly impacting the total NPP of grasslands. Although the increase in NPP in wetlands was minimal, accounting for 815.53 GgC, the highest change percentage of 79.78%, could be observed among the six vegetation types due to the anthropogenic influences and climate change. The conditions favorable for vegetation growth and a sustained environment were enhanced by the increased precipitation and temperature and the reinforced ecological protection by the government.

Heading and flowering are two key phenological stages in the growth process of winter wheat. It is of great significance for agricultural management and scientific research to accurately monitor and forecast the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat. However, the monitoring accuracy of existing methods based on remote sensing needs to be improved, and these methods cannot realize forecasting in advance. This study proposed an accumulated temperature method (ATM) for monitoring and forecasting the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat from the perspective of thermal requirements for crop growth. The ATM method consists of three key procedures: (1) extracting the green-up date of winter wheat as the starting point of temperature accumulation with the dynamic threshold method from remotely sensed vegetation index (VI) time-series data, (2) calculating the accumulated temperature and determining the thermal requirements from the green-up date to the heading date or the flowering date based on phenology observation samples, and (3) combining the satellite-derived green-up date, daily temperature data, and thermal requirements to monitor and forecast the heading date and flowering date of winter wheat. When applying the ATM method to winter wheat in the North China Plain during 2017–2019, the root mean square error (RMSE) for the estimated heading date was between 4.76 and 6.13 d and the RMSE for the estimated flowering date was between 5.30 and 6.41 d. By contrast, the RMSE for the heading and flowering dates estimated by the widely used maximum vegetation index method was approximately 10 d. Furthermore, the forecasting accuracy of the ATM method was also high, and the RMSE was approximately 6 d. In summary, the proposed ATM method can be used to accurately monitor and forecast the heading and flowering dates of winter wheat in large spatial scales and it performs better than the existing maximum vegetation index method.

Haloxylon ammodendron (H. ammodendron) is a second-class protected plant of national significance in China that is known for its growth in desert and semidesert regions, where it serves as a desert ecosystem guardian by playing a substantial role in maintaining ecosystem structure and function. The changing global climate has substantially altered the growth conditions for H. ammodendron. This study focuses on identifying the key variables influencing the distribution of H. ammodendron and determining their potential impact on future distribution. We employed the Maxent model to evaluate the current climate suitability for H. ammodendron distribution and to project its future changes across various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our findings indicate that precipitation during the warmest quarter and precipitation during the wettest month are the most influential variables affecting the potentially suitable habitats of H. ammodendron. The highly suitable habitat area for H. ammodendron currently covers approximately 489,800 km². The Maxent model forecasts an expansion of highly suitable H. ammodendron habitat under all future SSP scenarios, with the extent of unsuitable areas increasing with greater global warming. The increased highly suitable habitats range from 40% (SSP585) to 80% (SSP126) by the 2070s (2060–2080). Furthermore, our results indicate a continued expansion of desertification areas due to global warming, highlighting the significant role of H. ammodendron in maintaining desert ecosystem stability. This study offers valuable insights into biodiversity preservation and ecological protection in the context of future climate change scenarios.

NDVI data have been widely used to detect and monitor vegetation status at regional, continental, and global scales. FY-3D MERSI-II NDVI (FNDVI) is a critical operational product used in many studies monitoring ecosystems and agriculture and assessing climate change and its risks, including drought and fire. MERSI-II and MODIS have very similar spectral response functions in the red and near-infrared channels, making MERSI/NDVI an effective replacement for MODIS/NDVI (MNDVI). Therefore, it is critical to conduct a thorough evaluation of the product’s quality. In this study, the consistency characteristics of two normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products, FY-3D MERSI-II NDVI and MODIS NDVI, were compared and validated at national and regional scales in China from 2020 to 2021. To assess the consistency of these two NDVI datasets, the correlation coefficient, root-mean-square error, and mean bias error were used. The findings revealed that the spatial distribution patterns of FNDVI and MNDVI were highly consistent across the country at the monthly time scale. The correlation coefficients were greater than 0.9475 for the two years 2020–2021, while the average deviation was between 0.02 and 0.05, and the root-mean-square error was 0.11. Based on the difference in the time consistency between FNDVI and MNDVI, the changes in the monthly NDVI values of the two types of satellites are generally consistent across the country. Among the three typical experimental areas, the relative deviation of the regional time series for products was the highest in Xinjiang. The relative average deviation of FNDVI in other regions was low, and its change trend was consistent with that of MODIS.

Based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data, meteorological observation data, multisource atmospheric circulation, and sea surface temperature (SST) data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we estimated the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial natural vegetation in China according to the CASA model and analyzed the linear trend and interannual fluctuation of NPP, as well as the spatial distribution characteristics of the annual NPP response to climatic factors. The obtained results revealed the impact of air–sea interaction on interannual NPP variability in key climatic areas. In China, the annual NPP of natural vegetation, linear NPP trend, and interannual NPP fluctuation showed significant regional characteristics. The annual NPP exhibited a significant increasing trend and interannual fluctuation in North China and Northeast China, with spatially consistent responses from NPP to precipitation and temperature. On the seasonal time scale, NPP in the key climatic area (105~135° E, 35~55° N) exhibited a strong response to both summer precipitation and mean temperature. In the summer atmospheric circulation, the circulation anomaly area is mainly distributed in the northeast cold vortex area in the middle- and high-latitude westerlies in East Asia and in the Sea of Okhotsk with dipole circulation. In the SST of the preceding winter and spring, the key SST anomaly area was the Kuroshio region, with an impact of the Kuroshio SST anomaly on the interannual variation in annual NPP in the key climatic area. The cold vortex in Northeast China played a pivotal role in the influence of the SST anomaly in the Kuroshio region on atmospheric circulation anomalies, resulting in abnormal summer precipitation in the key climatic region and affecting the annual accumulation of NPP of natural vegetation.