The Aral Sea in Central Asia plays an essential role in the socio-economic development of the region. During the last six decades, there has been remarkable changes observed in the water level and areal extent of the Aral Sea Basin; however, the causes behind these changes are unclear. This study quantifies the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on Aral Sea and the contributions made by these drivers to the variations observed in the Aral Sea Basin. The spatial and temporal seasonal variations in groundwater budget have been analyzed using the total water storage (TWS) of the basin from 2002 to 2015. The results from this study revealed significant increases in the the mean air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration rate from 1960 to 2015 in the Aral Sea Basin. The TWS time-series shows a statistically significant declining trend of about 2 to 4 cm per year presented by the surface water storage. Based on the average monthly values of TWS, March 2005 presented the highest anomaly ~7.85 cm, while October 2008 showed the lowest anomaly ~8.22 cm between 2002 to 2015. The groundwater level indicates a small increasing trend of approximately 0.05 cm/year during the study period. Furthermore, the negative relationship between water level, climatic, and anthropogenic factors showed that these factors projected critical impact on the water level fluctuations within the Aral Sea Basin.

Climate changes over China from the present (1996–2005) to the future (2046–2055) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios are projected using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, version 3.7.1. The WRF model was driven by the Global 6-Hourly Bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), Community Earth System Model dataset over China with a resolution of 30 km. The results demonstrate that WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of surface air temperature and precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer in magnitude to the Community Climate System Model, version 4.0, simulation results, especially near mountain ranges. The WRF projections for temperature and precipitation for the future under the two emission scenarios are compared with the present simulation. Generally stronger warming, both in mean temperature and extreme statistics, is produced by WRF-RCP8.5 than by WRF-RCP4.5. The projections for precipitation changes are more varied with season and region for both scenarios.

Emerging drought stress on vegetation over western Eurasia is linked to varying teleconnection patterns. The North Sea–Caspian Pattern (NCP) is a relatively less studied Eurasian teleconnection pattern, which has a role on drought conditions and the consequence of changing conditions on vegetation. Between 1981 and 2015, we found that the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have different trend patterns over various parts of western Eurasia. Specifically, the vegetation greenness is linked with wetter conditions over Scandinavia, and vegetation cover decreases over a drying central Asia. However, western Russia and Franceare paradoxically becoming greener under drier conditions. Using the Budyko framework, such paradoxical patterns are found in energy‐limited environmental systems, where vegetation growth is primarily promoted by warmer temperatures. While most studies focused on the impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we test whether the NCP explains better the variability of meteorological drought and vegetation response over western Eurasia. We hypothesised that the positive phases of the NCP are correlated to high pressure anomalies over the North Sea, which can be associated with weakening onshore moisture advection, leading to warmer and dryness conditions. These conditions are driving vegetation greening, as western Eurasia is mainly energy limited. However, we show that as the climate is warming along with the teleconnection impacts, the future ecosystem over western Eurasia will be transferred from energy‐limited to water‐limited systems. This suggests that the observed vegetation greening over past three decades is unlikely to sustain in the future.