The rising frequency of heat-related illnesses (HRIs) under climate change presents urgent public health challenges, particularly in urban environments. This study develops an explainable machine learning (ML) model to predict HRI risk using metrological data from seven major South Korean metropolitan cities between May and September 2021–2024. We applied eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to model relationships between daily meteorological variables, including maximum and mean daily temperatures, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and precipitation, and HRI occurrence. Model performance was validated using 2025 data and demonstrated strong predictive accuracy, with area under the curve (AUC) values 0.895. To enhance interpretability, Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified mean daily temperature, solar radiation, and minimum temperature as the strongest contributors to HRI risk. Time-series comparisons of predicted and actual HRI occurrences further validated the model’s effectiveness in real-world settings. These findings underscore the potential of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) for localized health-risk forecasting and support a data-driven basis for developing early warning systems for climate-sensitive diseases to guide proactive public health planning amid escalating urban heat risks.
The prediction of an occult invasive component in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) before surgery is of clinical importance because the treatment strategies are different between pure DCIS without invasive component and upgraded DCIS. We demonstrated the potential of using deep learning models for differentiating between upgraded versus pure DCIS in DCIS diagnosed by core-needle biopsy. Preoperative axial dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data from 352 lesions were used to train, validate, and test three different types of deep learning models. The highest performance was achieved by Recurrent Residual Convolutional Neural Network using Regions of Interest (ROIs) with an accuracy of 75.0% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.796. Our results suggest that the deep learning approach may provide an assisting tool to predict the histologic upgrade of DCIS and provide personalized treatment strategies to patients with underestimated invasive disease.
29 November 2022 in Korean Journal of Medical Education