With global warming, agrometeorological disasters are also rising, posing a severe threat to China’s food security. Risk assessment serves as a bridge from disaster crisis management to risk management. Gansu Province is geographically crucial, so we performed a refined assessment of grain production risk for this province using multiple features of disaster loss data recorded at the county level. Analyses were performed for each district and county with a probability approach and an index system. We found that grain trend yields in each district and most counties in Gansu Province are increasing. Wuwei and Linxia districts had higher yearly growth rates, of more than 120 kg/(ha·year). However, there are considerable differences in risk levels among counties, even within the same district. Huating and Jinchang counties are high risk locations, while Cheng, Diebu, Jinta, and Xiahe counties are low risk zones. In 39.2% of counties, the fluctuation tendency rate of relative meteorological yield was positive. The average yield reduction rates of grain in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s were 5.5%, 6.6%, 8.1%, and 4.2%, respectively, and the average fluctuation coefficients were 5.0%, 5.5%, 7.1%, and 3.8%, respectively. After 2010, most regions’ average yield reduction rates fell dramatically, and grain output progressively stabilized. Counties prone to heavy disasters are primarily spread along the Hexi Corridor, with the probability exceeding 8%. However, 27.9% of counties were spared from severe calamities, which were mainly distributed in southwestern Gansu Province. Crop disaster conditions significantly positively correlated with grain risk. Drought is the primary cause of grain yield decline in Gansu Province. The findings can provide essential policy advice for the government in disaster prevention.

The frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters in China has caused huge losses to agriculture. Risk assessment serves as a bridge from disaster crisis management to disaster risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a refined comprehensive risk assessment of meteorological disasters in typical areas. However, several limitations remain in the disaster loss risk research, such as too coarse resolution and too single risk indicator. Additionally, less research has examined geographical information on risk clustering and barycenter migration, as well as temporal information on the sustainability of trends. Consequently, it is significant to unearth the geographical and temporal information on disaster loss and identify the refined spatial and temporal evolution pattern of crop risk. For this reason, we evaluated the risk of corn production in Gansu Province. First, based on maize yield data, a risk evaluation index system was constructed using the characteristics of variation trends, fluctuations, and extreme values of disaster losses. Then, the spatial distribution patterns and temporal evolution characteristics of maize production risks on a county scale in Gansu Province were determined using spatial analysis and climate diagnosis technology. The results show that there is a large interdecadal fluctuation in risk. In the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, the average yield reduction rates of maize in Gansu Province were −11.8%, −12.6%, −8.7%, and −8.5%, and the proportions of counties with severe yield reduction were 34.8%, 44.4%, 20.8%, and 9.7%, respectively. Second, most counties belong to medium-low or low-risk areas for maize production. High-risk counties are primarily located in eastern and southern Gansu, whereas low-risk counties are mostly found along the Hexi Corridor. Third, most risk indicators exhibit some geographical aggregation. The Jiuquan region falls within the low-low-risk aggregation zone. In contrast, the Qingyang region is a high-high aggregation zone with a gradual expansion trend. Four, each risk indicator’s geographical barycenter migrates over a complicated path, but the direction and distance vary considerably. The comprehensive risk migrates along the south-northwest-southeast trajectory, albeit at a shorter distance. Five, the proportion of counties with a medium, medium-severe, severe, and total yield reduction tended to decline. In addition, the annual precipitation is significantly or very significantly correlated with most risk indicators and the comprehensive risk level. The results can guide agricultural production processes at all levels, as well as government disaster prevention.

Understanding the components of water consumption plays a critical role in agricultural management in arid regions. This study aimed to analyze the characteristics of the components of the water consumption of winter wheat on the Loess Plateau in China to investigate their effects on yield and water use efficiency (WUE). Winter wheat observation data were collected from 1981 to 2020 at the Xifeng Agrometeorological Station on the Loess Plateau. The results show that over the past 40 years, the average water consumption of the winter wheat fields was 315 mm, but there were large differences between years. The soil water was first converted from precipitation (P) during the growing season, accounting for 69.4%, and then consumed via soil water storage (ΔW) in the fallow period, accounting for 30.6%. The yield of winter wheat varied from 1057 to 6914 kg·ha⁻¹. The correlation between winter wheat yield and P during the growth period was stronger than the correlation between winter wheat yield and ΔW. The average WUE was 11.0 kg·ha⁻¹·mm⁻¹ from 1981 to 2020, with the highest value of 13.7 kg·ha⁻¹·mm⁻¹ occurring in the 2010s and the lowest value of 9.6 kg·ha⁻¹·mm⁻¹ occurring in the 2000s. The WUE was positively correlated with P (p < 0.01) during the growth period and negatively correlated with ΔW (p < 0.05). Therefore, P can increase yield and WUE more effectively than ΔW. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the efficient utilization of water resources on the Loess Plateau and the sustainable development of dry farming.