This study finds the relationship between increases in precipitable water vapor (PWV), and intense rainfall events in four different climatological regions of South America’s equatorial northwest: the coast, Andes valley, high mountains, and Amazon. First, the PWV was derived from tropospheric zenith delay measured by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instrumentation located near meteorological stations within the regions of interest using hourly data from the year 2014. A harmonic analysis approach through continuous wavelet cross-spectrum and coherence, as well as discrete wavelets, was used to determine a measure of the lags found between PWV and specific heavy rain events and then compared with satellite IR images and meteorological anomalies. The link between PWV peaks and rainfall was the most evident on the coast, and less discernible in the other stations possibly due to local dynamic factors. The results showed a lag of 11 h between the preceding PWV increase and an intense rainfall event. This was apparent in all of the stations, except in Amazon where it was 6 h, with the highest precision at the coast and with the largest dispersion in the high mountains. The interpretation of this lag for each region is also discussed.

The advance and delay of the rainy season is among the most frequently cited effects of climate change in the central Ecuadorian Andes. However, its assessment is not feasible using the indicators recommended by the standardized indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), designed to detect changes in intensity, frequency, or duration of intense events. This study aims to analyze such advances and delays through harmonic analysis in Tungurahua, a predominantly agricultural province in the Tropical Central Andes, where in situ data are scarce. Daily in situ data from five meteorological stations were used, including precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperature records spanning 39 to 68 years. The study involved an analysis of the region’s climatology, climate change indices, and harmonic analysis using Cross-Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Coherence Transform (WCT) to identify seasonal patterns and their variability (advance or delay) by comparing historical and recent time series, and Krigging for regionalization. The year 2000 was used as a study point for comparing past and present trends. Results show a generalized increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures. In the case of extreme rainfall events, no significant changes were detected. Harmonic analysis was found to be fruitful despite of the missing data. Furthermore, the observed advances and delays in seasonality were not statistically significant and appeared to be more closely related to the geographic location of the stations than to temporal shifts.