The Tsinghua University Life Cycle Analysis Model (TLCAM) is applied to calculate the life cycle fossil energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for more than 20 vehicle fuel pathways in China. In addition to conventional gasoline and diesel, these include coal- and gas-based vehicle fuels, and electric vehicle (EV) pathways. The results indicate the following. (1) China’s current dependence on coal and relative low-efficiency processes limits the potential for most alternative fuel pathways to decrease energy consumption and emissions; (2) Future low-carbon electricity pathways offer more obvious advantages, with coal-based pathways needing to adopt carbon dioxide capture and storage technology to compete; (3) A well-to-wheels analysis of the fossil energy consumption of vehicles fueled by compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) showed that they are comparable to conventional gasoline vehicles. However, importing rather than domestically producing LNG for vehicle use can decrease domestic GHG emissions by 35% and 31% compared with those of conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles, respectively; (4) The manufacturing and recovery of battery and vehicle in the EV analysis has significant impact on the overall ability of EVs to decrease fossil energy consumption and GHG emissions from ICEVs.

CO₂ emission resulted from fossil energy use is threatening human sustainability globally. This study focuses on the low-carbon transition of Hebei’s coal-dominated energy system by estimating its total end-use energy consumption, primary energy supply and resultant CO₂ emission up to 2030, by employing an energy demand analysis model based on setting of the economic growth rate, industrial structure, industry/sector energy consumption intensity, energy supply structure, and CO₂ emission factor. It is found that the total primary energy consumption in Hebei will be 471 and 431 million tons of coal equivalent (tce) in 2030 in our two defined scenarios (conventional development scenario and coordinated development scenario), which are 1.40 and 1.28 times of the level in 2015, respectively. The resultant full-chain CO₂ emission will be 1027 and 916 million tons in 2030 in the two scenarios, which are 1.24 and 1.10 times of the level in 2015, respectively. The full-chain CO₂ emission will peak in about 2025. It is found that the coal-dominated situation of energy structure and CO₂ emission increasing trend in Hebei can be changed in the future in the coordinated development scenario, in which Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area coordinated development strategy will be strengthened. The energy structure of Hebei can be optimised since the proportion of coal in total primary energy consumption can fall from around 80% in 2015 to below 30% in 2030 and the proportions of transferred electricity, natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy can increase rapidly. Some specific additional policy instruments are also suggested to support the low-carbon transition of energy system in Hebei under the framework of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and with the support from the central government of China.