Species distributions are often constrained by climatic tolerances that are ultimately determined by evolutionary history and/or adaptive capacity, but these factors have rarely been partitioned. Here, we experimentally determined two key climatic niche traits (desiccation and cold resistance) for 92–95 Drosophila species and assessed their importance for geographic distributions, while controlling for acclimation, phylogeny, and spatial autocorrelation. Employing an array of phylogenetic analyses, we documented moderate-to-strong phylogenetic signal in both desiccation and cold resistance. Desiccation and cold resistance were clearly linked to species distributions because significant associations between traits and climatic variables persisted even after controlling for phylogeny. We used different methods to untangle whether phylogenetic signal reflected phylogenetically related species adapted to similar environments or alternatively phylogenetic inertia. For desiccation resistance, weak phylogenetic inertia was detected; ancestral trait reconstruction, however, revealed a deep divergence that could be traced back to the genus level. Despite drosophilids’ high evolutionary potential related to short generation times and high population sizes, cold resistance was found to have a moderate-to-high level of phylogenetic inertia, suggesting that evolutionary responses are likely to be slow. Together these findings suggest species distributions are governed by evolutionarily conservative climate responses, with limited scope for rapid adaptive responses to future climate change.

About 50 y ago, Crow and Kimura [ An Introduction to Population Genetics Theory (1970)] and Ohta and Kimura [ Genet. Res. 22, 201–204 (1973)] laid the foundations of conservation genetics by predicting the relationship between population size and genetic marker diversity. This work sparked an enormous research effort investigating the importance of population dynamics, in particular small population size, for population mean performance, population viability, and evolutionary potential. In light of a recent perspective [J. C. Teixeira, C. D. Huber, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118, 10 (2021)] that challenges some fundamental assumptions in conservation genetics, it is timely to summarize what the field has achieved, what robust patterns have emerged, and worthwhile future research directions. We consider theory and methodological breakthroughs that have helped management, and we outline some fundamental and applied challenges for conservation genetics.