International water resources agreements for transboundary rivers in southern Africa are generally founded in system analysis models for water planning and allocation. The Water Resources Yield Model (WRYM) developed in South Africa has so far been the only model applied in official joint water resources studies aimed to form water-sharing agreements. The continuous discussion around the model performance and growing distress over it being South African, where it was originally developed, while South Africa is one of the interested parties in the process, results in an increased controversy over the system analysis results that are often only meant to guide in selecting the options for water resources management in a given set of scenarios. The objective of this study was therefore to assess the model performance of two other models; WAFLEX and WEAP21 in the Umbeluzi River Basin system where the WRYM was previously applied as part of a Joint River Basin Study. A set of basin development scenarios was equally tested in the three models and the results compared. The results show that the three models all are possible tools for system analysis of river basins in southern Africa, although the structure and complexity of the models are different. The obtained level of satisfaction for specific water users could, however, vary depending on which model was used, which causes uncertainties. The reason for the diverse results is the structurally different ways of describing allocation and prioritization of water in the three models. However, the large degrees of freedom in all system models cause even larger uncertainty in the results since the model developer can, intentionally or unintentionally, direct the results to favor certain water user. The conclusion of this study is therefore that the choice of model does not per se affect the decision of best water allocation and infrastructure layout of a shared river basin. The chosen allocation and prioritization principles for the specific river basin and the model developer's experience and integrity are more important factors to find the optimal and equitable allocation.

Water microbial contamination is one of the major threats to human health. The study focus is on Infulene River Basin, a urban catchment with mainly informal settlements, with limited water supply and sanitation. In the catchment there are two wastewater treatment plants, one hospital and beer factory located on the banks of the main stream; water from this stream is used for urban agriculture and domestic uses by some dwellers. These factors present a significant health risk from water-borne diseases. At the moment there is limited knowledge about the level of microbial contamination of the different sources of water at the disposal of the communities. Thus, a preliminary study on fecal microbial contamination was conducted targeting the Infulene River and the drainage system from the nearby Maputo city draining into the system, with additional investigation on the drinking water provided by the city water supply company. The quantification of Total Coliforms (TC) and Escherichia coli (EC) was conducted at several sampling locations. Results were compared with official drinking water standards. Eighty two percent (82%) and 61% of Infulene river water and drainage water samples were positive for TC (10⁵ to 10⁹ NPN/100 mL) and EC (10⁵ to 10⁷ NPN/100 mL), respectively. For drinking water samples, 63% and 23% were positive for TC (up to 6000 NPN/100 mL) and EC (up to 1000 NPN/100 mL), respectively. Higher microbial contamination was found in neighborhoods with the poorest sanitation and shallow groundwater, i.e., Chamanculo, Xipamanine, Mafalala, Aeroporto and Maxaquene, a situation that was more expressive during the rainy season. Overall, the study confirmed the high vulnerability to microbial contamination of all sources investigated due to poor sanitation and lack of drainage infrastructure. The risks to human health might be even higher considering that contaminated water is used for gardening of vegetable watering and domestic use.

Water management in sub-Saharan African river basins is challenged by an uncertain future climatic, social and economical patterns potentially causing diverging water demands and availability, and by multi-stakeholder dynamics, resulting in evolving conflicts and tradeoffs. In such contexts, a better understanding of the sensitivity of water management to the different sources of uncertainty can support policymakers in identifying robust water supply policies balancing optimality and low vulnerability against likely adverse future conditions. This paper contributes an integrated decision-analytic framework combining an optimization, robustness, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis to retrieve the main sources of vulnerability to optimal and robust reservoir operating policies across multi-dimensional objective spaces. We demonstrate our approach on the lower Umbeluzi river basin, Mozambique, which an archetypal example of sub-Saharan river basin, where surface water scarcity compounded by substantial climatic variability, uncontrolled urbanization rate, and agricultural expansion are hampering the Pequenos Libombos dam's ability to supply the agricultural, energy, and urban sectors. We adopt an Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (EMODPS) optimization approach for designing optimal operating policies, whose robustness against social, agricultural, infrastructural, and climatic uncertainties is assessed via robustness analysis. We then implement the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and PAWN uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methods for disentangling the main challenges to the sustainability of the operating policies and quantifying their impacts on the urban, agricultural, and energy sectors. Numerical results highlight the importance of a robustness analysis when dealing with uncertain scenarios, with optimal non-robust reservoir operating policies largely being dominated by robust control strategies across all stakeholders. Furthermore, while robust policies are usually vulnerable only to hydrological perturbations and are able to sustain the majority of population growth and agricultural expansion scenarios, non-robust policies are sensitive also to social and agricultural changes and require structural interventions to ensure stable supply.

This paper presents a model that uses only pH, alkalinity, and temperature to estimate the concentrations of major ions in rivers (Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, HCO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻, Cl⁻, and NO₃⁻) together with the equilibrium concentrations of minor ions and heavy metals (Fe³⁺, Mn²⁺, Cd²⁺, Cu²⁺, Al³⁺, Pb²⁺, and Zn²⁺). Mining operations have been increasing, which has led to changes in the pollution loads to receiving water systems, meanwhile most developing countries cannot afford water quality monitoring. A possible solution is to implement less resource-demanding monitoring programs, supported by mathematical models that minimize the required sampling and analysis, while still being able to detect water quality changes, thereby allowing implementation of measures to protect the water resources. The present model was developed using existing theories for: (i) carbonate equilibrium; (ii) total alkalinity; (iii) statistics of major ions; (iv) solubility of minerals; and (v) conductivity of salts in water. The model includes two options to estimate the concentrations of major ions: (1) a generalized method, which employs standard values from a world-wide data base; and (2) a customized method, which requires specific baseline data for the river of interest. The model was tested using data from four monitoring stations in Swedish rivers with satisfactory results.

In Southern Africa, joint management of international waters is necessary for regional development and stability. The 1997 UN international convention on “watercourses for Non-navigational uses” and the 2000 revised SADC (South African Development Community) “Protocol on Shared Watercourses” form part of the platform towards minimising tension over utilisation of water resources in the region. Mozambique shares nine of 15 international rivers in SADC, hence its continued efforts towards reaching agreements with the riparian countries. However, effective implementation of these agreements remains a challenge. This study focuses on the implementation of future agreements in Umbeluzi River which has only two co-riparian sovereign states – Mozambique and Swaziland. In this case, it was found that several factors affect the effective implementation of the desired equitable sharing principle. The most prominent are hydrological data uncertainty, lack of adequate modelling tools and insufficient institutional capacity. Factors like large climatic variability in the region further worsen the situation. The overall implementation of agreements is also dependent on stakeholders' willingness to cooperate, which in turn is linked to their sense of fairness on decisions imposed by officials. However, correct regulation and enforcement can narrow the gap between technical ingenuity and the actual system behaviour.