With gradual progress in the medical field and the rising living standard of people, the life expectancy of people is gradually increasing. Unfortunately, this positive development contributes significantly to the aging of societies and creates huge challenges for pension systems. In order to mitigate the pressure on its pension system in the coming years, China is considering increasing the retirement age, just like many other countries. Based on the wage data of urban employees, pension revenue and expenditure data of employees in Anhui Province over the years, we constructed a model to predict average wages and forecast the revenue of the urban pension system from 2022 to 2032. We predicted the pension revenues by simulating an adjusted retirement age under two different schemes. The results of the study showed that the policies of appropriately increasing the retirement age can raise pension revenue. Compared with a one-step retirement age change scheme, a rolling retirement age change scheme that increases the retirement age by several months each year was found to be more suitable for the healthy development of the pension system.

The one-child policy was designed as a basic national policy in China and was written into the Constitution in 1982. The main content and purpose of the policy are to advocate late marriage, late childbearing and fewer births to control population growth in a planned way. Since the implementation of the basic national policy, its positive effect upon China’s economic development cannot be ignored, but after entering the 21st century, the problems related to population aging became obvious. Consequently, the basic pension system is confronted with great challenges. Under these circumstances, China initiated the two-child policy in 2016. This paper tries to forecast the change of pension shortfall after the implementation of the “two-child” policy in Anhui Province in China by establishing a pension revenue model, a pension expenditure model and a population prediction model. The prediction results reveal that the “two-child” policy helps to alleviate the pressure on the pension system, but the effect is limited and the “two-child” policy cannot change the trend of increasing pension shortfall in the long run. To reduce the burden on the pension system, the government can consider extending the pension contribution period and retirement age to make pension system sustainable.

The impact of different types of capital flows on China’s economic growth has been widely studied to determine whether the type of capital significantly affects the Chinese economy. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between long-term capital flows and economic growth in China, considering factors such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), portfolio equity, portfolio bonds, and external debt. All secondary data were collected from the World Bank database. The paper also investigates which type of capital flow has the most significant relation with the economic growth of China. A quantitative approach was chosen for the study. Moreover, to overcome the bias output of ordinary least squares, this paper deployed a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimation method. This study has found a relatively stable positive relationship between FDI and growth, where the coefficient of 0.9699 indicates that a 1% increase in FDI is associated with a 0.97% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Similar to FDI, portfolio equity has a positive impact on GDP growth, with a coefficient of 2.1419. In contrast, portfolio bond and debts have a negative coefficient of –1.7752 and –0.2831. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of China’s development experience, particularly regarding the role of capital flow. The paper explores two key limitations that need to be explored in the future, i.e., the causal relation between each type of long-term capital flow and economic growth, and the impact of COVID-19 on the economic growth relationship.

This paper studies the redistributive effects of two major pay-as-you-go pension systems by constructing an intergenerational iterative model which does not only considers standard utility but also relative utility. The study find that the two main pay-as-you-go pension systems are both sustainable. If we consider different preferences, then the choice of pension system should depend on the question of whether individuals are more interested in the absolute level of consumption or in the consumption related to a reference group. If the latter is more important, the Beveridgean system is superior, it provides greater protection for vulnerable groups than the Bismarck pension system, and the pension income after retirement is relatively more balanced, but the price is a lower level of consumption in the long run compared to an economy with Bismarckian system. If individuals prefer instead the absolute level of consumption, the Bismarckian system is better, because it guarantees a comparable higher level of consumption, but the disadvantaged groups face a higher risk of poverty and the degree of social inequality will be relatively higher. However, it is important to note that in the long run, only the level of consumption differs, not the speed of growth or number of children.