This study summarizes the findings of our research on the genesis of methane, its content and distribution in permafrost horizons of different age an

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH₄), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH₄. Current fluxes of CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr⁻¹, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO₂-equivalent (CO₂e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO₂e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

This study summarizes seasonal thawing data collected in different permafrost regions of northeast Asia over the 1995–2018 period. Empirical observations were undertaken under the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program at a range of sites across the permafrost landscapes of the Yana-Indigirka and Kolyma lowlands and the Chukotka Peninsula, and supplemented with 10 years of observations from volcanic mountainous areas of the Kamchatka Peninsula. Thaw depth observations, taken using mechanical probing at the end of the thawing season, and ground temperature measurements, were analyzed with respect to air temperatures trends. The data from 24 sites (16 in the Indigirka-Kolyma region, 5 in Chukotka and 3 in Kamchatka) reveal different reactions of the active layer thickness (ALT) to recent changes in atmospheric climate. In general, there is a positive relation between ALT and summer air temperatures. Since the early 2000s positive ALT anomalies (compared with mean data from all sites) prevail in the Kolyma and Chukotka area, with only one alas site showing a negative ALT trend. The only active site in the Kamchatka Mountains shows no significant thaw depth changes over the period of observation. Two other Kamchatka sites were affected during a volcanic eruption in 2012.

Evidences of highly localized methane fluxes are reported from the Arctic shelf, hot spots of methane emissions in thermokarst lakes, and are believed to evolve to features like Yamal crater on land. The origin of large methane outbursts is problematic. Here we show, that the biogenic methane (¹³C ≤ −71‰) which formed before and during soil freezing is presently held in the permafrost. Field and experimental observations show that methane tends to accumulate at the permafrost table or in the coarse-grained lithological pockets surrounded by the sediments less-permeable for gas. Our field observations, radiocarbon dating, laboratory tests and theory all suggest that depending on the soil structure and freezing dynamics, this methane may have been displaced downwards tens of meters during freezing and has accumulated in the lithological pockets. The initial flux of methane from the one pocket disclosed by drilling was at a rate of more than 2.5 kg C(CH₄) m⁻² h⁻¹. The age of the methane was 8–18 thousand years younger than the age of the sediments, suggesting that it was displaced tens of meters during freezing. The theoretical background provided the insight on the cryogenic displacement of methane in support of the field and experimental data. Upon freezing of sediments, methane follows water migration and either dissipates in the freezing soils or concentrates at certain places controlled by the freezing rate, initial methane distribution and soil structure.