Accurate prediction for the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) is a emerge task nowadays. We aimed to develop survival models for postoperative PC patients, based on a novel algorithm, random survival forest (RSF), traditional Cox regression and neural networks (Deepsurv), using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. A total of 3988 patients were included in this study. Eight clinicopathological features were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and were utilized to develop the RSF model. The model was evaluated based on three dimensions: discrimination, calibration, and clinical benefit. It found that the RSF model predicted the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of the postoperative PC patients with a c-index of 0.723, which was higher than the models built by Cox regression (0.670) and Deepsurv (0.700). The Brier scores at 1, 3, and 5 years (0.188, 0.177, and 0.131) of the RSF model demonstrated the model’s favorable calibration and the decision curve analysis illustrated the model’s value of clinical implement. Moreover, the roles of the key variables were visualized in the Shapley Additive Explanations plotting. Lastly, the prediction model demonstrates value in risk stratification and individual prognosis. In this study, a high-performance prediction model for PC postoperative prognosis was developed, based on RSF The model presented significant strengths in the risk stratification and individual prognosis prediction.

Aim to establish a multimodal model for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL). In this multicentre retrospective study, patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis at admission were enrolled from January 2017 to December 2021. Clinical information within 24 h and CT scans within 72 h of admission were collected. First, we trained Model α based on clinical features selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis. Second, radiomics features were extracted from 3D-CT scans and Model β was developed on the features after dimensionality reduction using principal component analysis. Third, Model γ was trained on 2D-CT images. Lastly, a multimodal model, namely PrismSAP, was constructed based on aforementioned features in the training set. The predictive accuracy of PrismSAP was verified in the validation and internal test sets and further validated in the external test set. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, recall, precision and F1-score. A total of 1,221 eligible patients were randomly split into a training set (n = 864), a validation set (n = 209) and an internal test set (n = 148). Data of 266 patients were for external testing. In the external test set, PrismSAP performed best with the highest AUC of 0.916 (0.873-0.960) among all models [Model α: 0.709 (0.618-0.800); Model β: 0.749 (0.675-0.824); Model γ: 0.687 (0.592-0.782); MCTSI: 0.778 (0.698-0.857); RANSON: 0.642 (0.559-0.725); BISAP: 0.751 (0.668-0.833); SABP: 0.710 (0.621-0.798)]. The proposed multimodal model outperformed any single-modality models and traditional scoring systems.

Background: Although nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is related to obesity, it may also affect lean individuals. Recent data suggest that lean NAFLD patients can develop the whole spectrum of NASH. However, the NAFLD predictive model for lean populations remains lacking. Methods: A total of 5037 lean individuals were included in this study, and the data were separated for training and validation. The logistic regression method was used, and a nomogram, a type of prediction model, was constructed according to the logistic regression analysis and the significant clinical factors. The performance of this model was evaluated based on its discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Results: The individuals were divided into the training (n = 4068) or validation (n = 969) cohorts at a ratio of 8 to 2. The overall prevalence of NAFLD in the lean cohort was 6.43%. The nomogram was constructed based on seven predictors: alanine aminotransferase, total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, creatinine, uric acid, and hemoglobin A1C. The model based on these factors showed good predictive accuracy in the training set and in the internal validation set, with areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.870 and 0.887, respectively. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) displayed good clinical utility. Conclusion: the nomogram model provides a simple and reliable ability to predict the risk of NAFLD in lean subjects. The model can predict lean NAFLD and can help physicians screen and identify lean subjects at a high risk of NAFLD.