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Prof. Alfredo Rocha
Universidade de Aveiro (University of Aveiro), Portugal

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0 Meteorology Science
0 Climate change and human health impacts
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Journal article
Published: 20 April 2021 in Atmosphere
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This work aims to compare the performance of the single‑(SLUCM) and multilayer (BEP-Building effect parameterization) urban canopy models (UCMs) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), along with the application of two urban heat island (UHI) identification methods. The identification methods are: (1) the “classic method”, based on the temperature difference between urban and rural areas; (2) the “local method” based on the temperature difference at each urban location when the model land use is considered urban, and when it is replaced by the dominant rural land use category of the urban surroundings. The study is performed as a case study for the city of Lisbon, Portugal, during the record-breaking August 2003 heatwave event. Two main differences were found in the UHI intensity (UHII) and spatial distribution between the identification methods: a reduction by half in the UHII during nighttime when using the local method; and a dipole signal in the daytime and nighttime UHI spatial pattern when using the classic method, associated with the sheltering effect provided by the high topography in the northern part of the city, that reduces the advective cooling in the lower areas under prevalent northern wind conditions. These results highlight the importance of using the local method in UHI modeling studies to fully isolate urban canopy and regional geographic contributions to the UHII and distribution. Considerable improvements were obtained in the near‑surface temperature representation by coupling WRF with the UCMs but better with SLUCM. The nighttime UHII over the most densely urbanized areas is lower in BEP, which can be linked to its larger nocturnal turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) near the surface and negative sensible heat (SH) fluxes. The latter may be associated with the lower surface skin temperature found in BEP, possibly owing to larger turbulent SH fluxes near the surface. Due to its higher urban TKE, BEP significantly overestimates the planetary boundary layer height compared with SLUCM and observations from soundings. The comparison with a previous study for the city of Lisbon shows that BEP model simulation results heavily rely on the number and distribution of vertical levels within the urban canopy.

ACS Style

Rui Silva; Ana Carvalho; David Carvalho; Alfredo Rocha. Study of Urban Heat Islands Using Different Urban Canopy Models and Identification Methods. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 521 .

AMA Style

Rui Silva, Ana Carvalho, David Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha. Study of Urban Heat Islands Using Different Urban Canopy Models and Identification Methods. Atmosphere. 2021; 12 (4):521.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rui Silva; Ana Carvalho; David Carvalho; Alfredo Rocha. 2021. "Study of Urban Heat Islands Using Different Urban Canopy Models and Identification Methods." Atmosphere 12, no. 4: 521.

Journal article
Published: 27 March 2021 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
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Floods are one of the natural disasters not preventable, affecting people and causing significant damage to economic activities and infrastructures. Thus, it is of foremost importance to, within a disaster risk-reduction strategy, develop a useful flood forecast and alert system to prevent people from suffering flood disasters and mitigate its consequences. This article presents the Flood Forecast and Alert System in operational mode since 2019 for the Águeda river basin located in Portugal’s centre region. This system is technologically advanced, differing from others since it uses a coupled real-time hydrologic and 2D hydrodynamic modelling supported on numerical weather prediction and a high-resolution digital terrain surface model. The system components are automatically activated and linked: i) a rainfall forecasting model (WRF), ii) a hydrological model (HEC-HMS), iii) a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS 2D), and a iv) Web-GIS platform. The hydrological model is forced with forecast precipitation for the next three days and updated every 6 h, which is crucial to generate pre-flood hazard maps. It also includes a Web GIS service for flood hazard dissemination available for civil authorities and citizens. A flood forecast and alert system is highly relevant to the community since, by enhancing knowledge, it provides the authorities responsible for assessing and managing the flood risk, responsiveness to disasters and timely decision-making, which is even more evident in the context of climate change.

ACS Style

Sandra Mourato; Paulo Fernandez; Fábio Marques; Alfredo Rocha; Luísa Pereira. An interactive Web-GIS fluvial flood forecast and alert system in operation in Portugal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2021, 58, 102201 .

AMA Style

Sandra Mourato, Paulo Fernandez, Fábio Marques, Alfredo Rocha, Luísa Pereira. An interactive Web-GIS fluvial flood forecast and alert system in operation in Portugal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 2021; 58 ():102201.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sandra Mourato; Paulo Fernandez; Fábio Marques; Alfredo Rocha; Luísa Pereira. 2021. "An interactive Web-GIS fluvial flood forecast and alert system in operation in Portugal." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 58, no. : 102201.

Journal article
Published: 02 February 2021 in Atmosphere
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Tropospheric ozone (O3) can strongly damage vegetation. Grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.), in particular, have intermediate sensitivity to ozone. Wine production is an important economic activity, as well as a pillar to the cultural identity of several countries in the world. This study aims to evaluate the risk of Douro vineyards exposure to ozone, by estimating its concentration and deposition in the Demarcated Region of Douro in Portugal. Based on an assessment of the climatology of the area, the years 2003 to 2005 were selected among the hottest years of the recent past, and the chemical transport model CHIMERE was used to estimate the three-dimensional field of ozone and its dry deposition over the Douro region with 1 km2 of horizontal resolution. Model results were validated by comparison with measured data from the European air quality database (AirBase). The exposure indicator AOT40 (accumulated concentration of ozone above 40 ppb) was calculated and an exposure–response function was applied to determine the grapevine risk to ozone exposure. The target value for the protection of vegetation established by the Air Quality Framework Directive was exceeded on most of the Douro region, especially over the Baixo Corgo and Cima Corgo sub-regions. The results of the exposure–response functions suggest that the productivity loss can reach 27% and that the sugar content of the grapes could be reduced by 32%, but these values are affected by the inherent uncertainty of the used methodology.

ACS Style

Ana Ascenso; Carla Gama; Daniel Blanco-Ward; Alexandra Monteiro; Carlos Silveira; Carolina Viceto; Vera Rodrigues; Alfredo Rocha; Carlos Borrego; Myriam Lopes; Ana Miranda. Assessing Douro Vineyards Exposure to Tropospheric Ozone. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 200 .

AMA Style

Ana Ascenso, Carla Gama, Daniel Blanco-Ward, Alexandra Monteiro, Carlos Silveira, Carolina Viceto, Vera Rodrigues, Alfredo Rocha, Carlos Borrego, Myriam Lopes, Ana Miranda. Assessing Douro Vineyards Exposure to Tropospheric Ozone. Atmosphere. 2021; 12 (2):200.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ana Ascenso; Carla Gama; Daniel Blanco-Ward; Alexandra Monteiro; Carlos Silveira; Carolina Viceto; Vera Rodrigues; Alfredo Rocha; Carlos Borrego; Myriam Lopes; Ana Miranda. 2021. "Assessing Douro Vineyards Exposure to Tropospheric Ozone." Atmosphere 12, no. 2: 200.

Journal article
Published: 22 October 2020 in Applied Sciences
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Offshore renewable energy has a high potential for ensuring the successful implementation of the European decarbonization agenda planned for the near future. Hybrid wind-wave farms can reduce installation and maintenance costs, and increase the renewable energy availability of a location by compensating for the wind’s intermittent nature with good wave conditions. In addition, wave farms can provide protection to wind farms, and the combined wind/wave farm can provide coastal protection. This work aims to assess the future hybrid wind-wave energy resource for the northwest coast of Iberian Peninsula for the near future (2026–2045), under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario. This assessment was accomplished by applying a Delphi classification method to define four categories, aiming to evaluate the richness (wind and wave energy availability, downtime), the variability (temporal variation), the environmental risk (extreme events), and cost parameters (water depth and distance to coast) of the wind and wave resources. The combined index (CI), which classifies the hybrid wind-wave resource, shows that most of the NW Iberian Peninsula presents good conditions (CI > 0.6) for exploiting energy from wind and wave resources simultaneously. Additionally, there are some particularly optimal areas (CI > 0.7), such as the region near Cape Roca, and the Galician coast.

ACS Style

Americo Ribeiro; Xurxo Costoya; Maite De Castro; David Carvalho; Joao Dias; Alfredo Rocha; Moncho Gomez-Gesteira. Assessment of Hybrid Wind-Wave Energy Resource for the NW Coast of Iberian Peninsula in a Climate Change Context. Applied Sciences 2020, 10, 7395 .

AMA Style

Americo Ribeiro, Xurxo Costoya, Maite De Castro, David Carvalho, Joao Dias, Alfredo Rocha, Moncho Gomez-Gesteira. Assessment of Hybrid Wind-Wave Energy Resource for the NW Coast of Iberian Peninsula in a Climate Change Context. Applied Sciences. 2020; 10 (21):7395.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Americo Ribeiro; Xurxo Costoya; Maite De Castro; David Carvalho; Joao Dias; Alfredo Rocha; Moncho Gomez-Gesteira. 2020. "Assessment of Hybrid Wind-Wave Energy Resource for the NW Coast of Iberian Peninsula in a Climate Change Context." Applied Sciences 10, no. 21: 7395.

Journal article
Published: 18 September 2020 in Atmosphere
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Wind is among the most important climatic elements. Its characteristics are determinant for a wide range of natural processes and human activities. However, ongoing climate change is modifying these characteristics, which may have important implications. Climatic changes on wind speed and direction, wind shear intensity, and helicity, over the 21st century and for 26 cities in the Iberian Peninsula, under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 anthropogenic forcing scenario, are assessed. For this purpose, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used, with initial and boundary conditions being obtained from simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) climate model and ERA-Interim reanalysis. Quantile-quantile bias correction was applied to the simulated data prior to subsequent analysis. Overall, the results hint at a reduction in the intensity of both near-surface and 850 hPa (approx. 5%) wind in the future. Nevertheless, for the 300 hPa level, a decrease in summertime wind speed is accompanied by a slight increase in the remaining months. Furthermore, significant increases in the number of occurrences of extreme wind events were also identified, mainly in northwestern Iberia. For wind shear, an intensity increase is projected throughout most of the year (approx. 5% in the upper quantiles), mainly in southwestern Iberia. Helicity is also projected to undergo a strengthening, mostly in summer months and over southwestern Iberia, with greater emphasis on events of longer duration and intensity. This study highlights some important projected changes in the wind structure and profile under future anthropogenic forcing. This knowledge may support decisions on climate change adaptation options and risk reduction of several major sectors, such as energy and aviation, thus deserving further research.

ACS Style

Joana Martins; Alfredo Rocha; Carolina Viceto; Susana Cardoso Pereira; João A. Santos. Future Projections for Wind, Wind Shear and Helicity in the Iberian Peninsula. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1001 .

AMA Style

Joana Martins, Alfredo Rocha, Carolina Viceto, Susana Cardoso Pereira, João A. Santos. Future Projections for Wind, Wind Shear and Helicity in the Iberian Peninsula. Atmosphere. 2020; 11 (9):1001.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Joana Martins; Alfredo Rocha; Carolina Viceto; Susana Cardoso Pereira; João A. Santos. 2020. "Future Projections for Wind, Wind Shear and Helicity in the Iberian Peninsula." Atmosphere 11, no. 9: 1001.

Journal article
Published: 08 February 2020 in Applied Sciences
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Heat waves are large-scale atmospheric phenomena that may cause heat stress in ecosystems and socio-economic activities. In cities, morbidity and mortality may increase during a heat wave, overloading health and emergency services. In the face of climate change and associated warming, cities need to adapt and mitigate the effects of heat waves. This study suggests a new method to evaluate heat waves’ impacts on cities by considering some aspects of heat waves that are not usually considered in other similar studies. The method devises heat wave quantities that are easy to calculate; it is relevant to assessing their impacts and permits the development of adaptation measures. This study applies the suggested method to quantify various aspects of heat waves in Lisbon for future climate projections considering future mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2081–2100) climates under the RCP8.5 greenhouse emission scenario. This is achieved through the analysis of various regional climate simulations performed with the WRF model and an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX models. This allows an estimation of uncertainty and confidence of the projections. To evaluate the climate change properties of heat waves, statistics for future climates are compared to those for a reference recent climate. Simulated temperatures are first bias corrected to minimize the model systematic errors relative to observations. The temperature for mid and long-term futures is expected to increase relative to the present by 1.6 °C and 3.6 °C, respectively, with late summer months registering the highest increases. The number of heat wave days per year will increase on average from 10, in the present climate, to 38 and 63 in mid and long-term climates, respectively. Heat wave duration, intensity, average maximum temperature, and accumulated temperature during a heat wave will also increase. Heat waves account for an annual average of accumulated temperature of 358 °C·day in the present climate, while in the mid and long-term, future climates account for 1270 °C·day and 2078 °C·day, respectively. The largest increases are expected to occur from July to October. Extreme intensity and long-duration heat waves with an average maximum temperature of more than 40 °C are expected to occur in the future climates.

ACS Style

Alfredo Rocha; Susana C. Pereira; Carolina Viceto; Rui Silva; Jorge Neto; Martinho Marta-Almeida. A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon. Applied Sciences 2020, 10, 1149 .

AMA Style

Alfredo Rocha, Susana C. Pereira, Carolina Viceto, Rui Silva, Jorge Neto, Martinho Marta-Almeida. A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon. Applied Sciences. 2020; 10 (3):1149.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Alfredo Rocha; Susana C. Pereira; Carolina Viceto; Rui Silva; Jorge Neto; Martinho Marta-Almeida. 2020. "A Consistent Methodology to Evaluate Temperature and Heat Wave Future Projections for Cities: A Case Study for Lisbon." Applied Sciences 10, no. 3: 1149.

Journal article
Published: 03 February 2020 in Atmosphere
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Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have differential effects on different subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group

ACS Style

Mónica Rodrigues; Paula Santana; Alfredo Rocha. Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? Atmosphere 2020, 11, 159 .

AMA Style

Mónica Rodrigues, Paula Santana, Alfredo Rocha. Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk? Atmosphere. 2020; 11 (2):159.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mónica Rodrigues; Paula Santana; Alfredo Rocha. 2020. "Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?" Atmosphere 11, no. 2: 159.

Journal article
Published: 31 January 2020 in Applied Energy
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The reduction of the error in climate model’s meteorological variables representation is a key challenge to improve the reliability of future climate projections. It has special importance when analyzing wind power density (WPD) because this variable is proportional to the wind speed cubed. The first aim of this study is to determine whether bias correction improved WPD future projections from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscalling project. With this purpose, two bias correction techniques have been applied over wind speed climatic projections. The first one was based on quantile mapping approach, while the second one was based on the correction in the frequency domain. It was found that the combination of bias correction techniques reduced biases both in terms of temporal variability and in the distribution of wind series. Regarding the sensitivity of WPD to bias correction techniques, it was detected that not corrected simulations tended to overestimate offshore wind energy in the area selected as case study, the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, a WPD reduction higher than 200 W m−2 at an annual scale for the end of the 21st century was observed in most of the Western Iberia coastal areas when comparing the median WPD from not corrected and corrected simulations. A WPD reduction was observed for near, mid and far future by means of corrected projections, except for the northwestern corner of the Iberian Peninsula. At seasonal scale, an increase of about 20% was projected in summer, while a WPD decrease was observed in spring and, especially in autumn (20%).

ACS Style

X. Costoya; A. Rocha; D. Carvalho. Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula. Applied Energy 2020, 262, 114562 .

AMA Style

X. Costoya, A. Rocha, D. Carvalho. Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula. Applied Energy. 2020; 262 ():114562.

Chicago/Turabian Style

X. Costoya; A. Rocha; D. Carvalho. 2020. "Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula." Applied Energy 262, no. : 114562.

Conference paper
Published: 24 November 2019 in First Complex Systems Digital Campus World E-Conference 2015
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Tropospheric ozone (O3) can damage vegetation, affecting productivity and quality of the crops. Vines, in particular, have an intermediate sensitivity to ozone. Moreover, an increase of ozone levels is foreseen under climate change scenarios. The Douro Demarcated Region is one of the most productive wine areas in Portugal; thus studying the ozone deposition over this region and assessing its potential effects is a nowadays concern. This work aims to evaluate the risk of Douro vineyards exposure to ozone in present and future climates. The chemical transport model CHIMERE, with a spatial resolution of 1 km2, fed by meteorological data from the WRF model, was applied for the years 2003–2005 (present climate), for 2049 and 2064 (mid-term future) and for 2096 and 2097 (long-term future). The assessment of the potential damage in terms of productivity and quality was done through the analysis of ozone deposition and the application of concentration-response functions. The exposure indicator AOT40 (accumulated concentration of ozone above 40 ppb) for the period established in the Air Quality Framework Directive 2008/50/CE was also estimated. The model results show, for present and future climate, that the AOT40 levels in the entire Douro region are above the target value for the protection of vegetation. The results of the exposure-response functions suggest that the tropospheric ozone levels in the future, in the region, would influence the quality and productivity of the wine.

ACS Style

Ana Isabel Miranda; Ana Ascenso; Carla Gama; Daniel Blanco-Ward; Alexandra Monteiro; Carlos Silveira; Carolina Viceto; Alfredo Rocha; Diogo Lopes; Myriam Lopes; Carlos Borrego. Ozone Risk for Douro Vineyards in Present and Future Climates. First Complex Systems Digital Campus World E-Conference 2015 2019, 439 -444.

AMA Style

Ana Isabel Miranda, Ana Ascenso, Carla Gama, Daniel Blanco-Ward, Alexandra Monteiro, Carlos Silveira, Carolina Viceto, Alfredo Rocha, Diogo Lopes, Myriam Lopes, Carlos Borrego. Ozone Risk for Douro Vineyards in Present and Future Climates. First Complex Systems Digital Campus World E-Conference 2015. 2019; ():439-444.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ana Isabel Miranda; Ana Ascenso; Carla Gama; Daniel Blanco-Ward; Alexandra Monteiro; Carlos Silveira; Carolina Viceto; Alfredo Rocha; Diogo Lopes; Myriam Lopes; Carlos Borrego. 2019. "Ozone Risk for Douro Vineyards in Present and Future Climates." First Complex Systems Digital Campus World E-Conference 2015 , no. : 439-444.

Journal article
Published: 22 November 2019 in Atmosphere
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Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045–2065 and −0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.

ACS Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues; Paula Santana; Alfredo Rocha. Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 735 .

AMA Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues, Paula Santana, Alfredo Rocha. Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach. Atmosphere. 2019; 10 (12):735.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues; Paula Santana; Alfredo Rocha. 2019. "Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach." Atmosphere 10, no. 12: 735.

Journal article
Published: 20 August 2019 in Science of The Total Environment
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The potential effects of future climate in green freshwater resources are an issue that needs to be addressed. The main goal of this study is to evaluate how future climate will affect green water scarcity resources, by calculating green water scarcity characterisation factors (CFs) under a reference (period 1986 to 2005) and a medium-term future (period 2046 to 2065) climate, based on the principles established by Quinteiro et al. (2018). This study considers a higher spatial resolution (9 × 9 km) than Quinteiro et al. (2018), improving the knowledge of green water scarcity conditions in mainland Portugal. The CFs were calculated considering two different interfaces: (1) interface green freshwater – topsoil (ws), and; (2) interface green freshwater – atmosphere (wa). At the interface ws, the relation between the changes on green freshwater flows and the surface blue freshwater recharge is considered, while at the interface wa the relation between the evapotranspiration (ET) recycled to the atmosphere and the precipitation levels at the same watershed level are considered. The green freshwater scarcity CFs were developed based on ET values, which in turn were calculated based on meteorological variables obtained with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Some regions of Portugal are currently suffering of pressure on green freshwater resources (mainly in Central littoral and Western coastal areas). In general, green freshwater scarcity CFs is projected to increase in Portugal under future climate in comparison to the CFs obtained for reference conditions. Green freshwater scarcity CFs at the interface ws increase from 101 to 150%, while CFs at the interface wa increase from 301 to 800%. These results show that strategies and policies to support the management of green freshwater resources and land use planning, ensuring the highest level of freshwater productivity of crops and forests, should be developed.

ACS Style

Paula Quinteiro; Sandra Rafael; Bruno Vicente; Martinho Marta-Almeida; Alfredo Rocha; Luis Arroja; Ana Cláudia Dias. Mapping green water scarcity under climate change: A case study of Portugal. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 696, 134024 .

AMA Style

Paula Quinteiro, Sandra Rafael, Bruno Vicente, Martinho Marta-Almeida, Alfredo Rocha, Luis Arroja, Ana Cláudia Dias. Mapping green water scarcity under climate change: A case study of Portugal. Science of The Total Environment. 2019; 696 ():134024.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paula Quinteiro; Sandra Rafael; Bruno Vicente; Martinho Marta-Almeida; Alfredo Rocha; Luis Arroja; Ana Cláudia Dias. 2019. "Mapping green water scarcity under climate change: A case study of Portugal." Science of The Total Environment 696, no. : 134024.

Journal article
Published: 01 August 2019 in International Journal of Climatology
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ACS Style

Susana Cardoso Pereira; Martinho Marta‐Almeida; Ana Cristina Carvalho; Alfredo Rocha. Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology 2019, 40, 1255 -1278.

AMA Style

Susana Cardoso Pereira, Martinho Marta‐Almeida, Ana Cristina Carvalho, Alfredo Rocha. Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology. 2019; 40 (2):1255-1278.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Susana Cardoso Pereira; Martinho Marta‐Almeida; Ana Cristina Carvalho; Alfredo Rocha. 2019. "Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 2: 1255-1278.

Journal article
Published: 13 June 2019 in Solar Energy
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The research proposed herein seeks to improve solar irradiance magnitude and variability results produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a novel offline coupling procedure (OCP). The OCP includes simulations in clear sky conditions, where the effects from varying atmospheric composition depend on the broadband clear sky model used, on cloud attenuation and on decomposition techniques to accurately separate the global irradiance into direct and diffuse components. Furthermore, shadowing and slope effects from orographic features and other obstacles are included with much greater detail. Benefits of the offline coupling procedure were quantified by comparison against local solar radiation measurements over a period of one year. A baseline test to explore the different configuration options was implemented. It considers two aerosol databases, three broadband clear sky models, two cloud attenuation corrections based on clear sky index (either global or by components) and four decomposition models. Given the amount of results from baseline tests, the relative root-mean-square error (rRMSE) was used as the criterion to identify the most suitable OCP configuration, which was subsequently used in the performance analysis. The current baseline test comprises seven sites selected from the Baseline Radiation Network (BSRN) in different terrain complexities and atmospheric conditions. Statistical indicators associated with the annual global horizontal irradiance reveal that OCP improved WRF results by 88.4% in terms of the relative mean bias error (rMBE) and by 5.0% in the value of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). A standard OCP configuration to model global horizontal irradiance only is proposed. The rMBE of annual hourly global horizontal irradiance oscillated between −3.6% and 3.9%, whilst the NSE varied between 0.608 and 0.939. The analogous quantities for diffuse horizontal irradiance were -19.3%⩽rMBE⩽4.6% and 0.371⩽NSE⩽0.717, while for direct normal irradiance -6.5%⩽rMBE⩽23.2% and 0.101⩽NSE⩽0.656.

ACS Style

Rui Pereira; Carlos Silva Santos; A. Rocha. Solar irradiance modelling using an offline coupling procedure for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Solar Energy 2019, 188, 339 -352.

AMA Style

Rui Pereira, Carlos Silva Santos, A. Rocha. Solar irradiance modelling using an offline coupling procedure for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Solar Energy. 2019; 188 ():339-352.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rui Pereira; Carlos Silva Santos; A. Rocha. 2019. "Solar irradiance modelling using an offline coupling procedure for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model." Solar Energy 188, no. : 339-352.

Research article
Published: 05 June 2019 in International Journal of Climatology
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Climate change is of major relevance to wine production as most of the wine‐growing regions of the world are located within relatively narrow latitudinal bands with average growing‐season temperatures limited to 13–21 °C. This study focuses on the incidence of climate variables and indices that are relevant both for climate change assessment and for grape production, with emphasis on grapevine bioclimatic indices and extreme events (e.g. cold waves, storms, heatwaves). Dynamical downscaling of European Reanalysis‐Interim (ERA‐Interim) and Max Planck Institute Earth System low‐resolution (MPI‐ESM‐LR) global simulations forced with a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario was performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to a regional scale including the Douro Valley of Portugal for recent‐past (1986–2005) and future periods (2046–2065, 2081–2100). The number, duration and intensity of events were superimposed over critical phenological phases estimated by using a specific local grapevine varietal phenological model in order to assess their positive or negative implications for wine production in the region. An assessment of the relevance of climate parameters and indices and their progression in recent‐past and future climate scenarios with regard to the potential impact on wine production was performed. Results indicate a positive relation between higher growing‐season heat accumulations and greater vintage yields. A moderate incidence of very hot days (daily maximum temperature above 35 °C) and drought from pre‐véraison phenological conditions have a positive association with vintage ratings. However, the mid‐ and long‐term WRF‐MPI RCP8.5 future climate scenarios reveal shifts to warmer and drier conditions, with the mean growing‐season temperature (GST) not remaining within range for quality wine production in the long‐term future climate scenario. These results indicate potential impacts that suggest a range of strategies to maintain wine production and quality in the region.

ACS Style

Daniel Blanco‐Ward; Alexandra Monteiro; Myriam Lopes; Carlos Borrego; Carlos Silveira; Carolina Viceto; Alfredo Rocha; A.C. Ribeiro; João Andrade; Manuel Feliciano; João Castro; David Barreales; Jorge Neto; Cristina Carlos; Carlos Peixoto; Ana Miranda. Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices. International Journal of Climatology 2019, 39, 5741 -5760.

AMA Style

Daniel Blanco‐Ward, Alexandra Monteiro, Myriam Lopes, Carlos Borrego, Carlos Silveira, Carolina Viceto, Alfredo Rocha, A.C. Ribeiro, João Andrade, Manuel Feliciano, João Castro, David Barreales, Jorge Neto, Cristina Carlos, Carlos Peixoto, Ana Miranda. Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices. International Journal of Climatology. 2019; 39 (15):5741-5760.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Daniel Blanco‐Ward; Alexandra Monteiro; Myriam Lopes; Carlos Borrego; Carlos Silveira; Carolina Viceto; Alfredo Rocha; A.C. Ribeiro; João Andrade; Manuel Feliciano; João Castro; David Barreales; Jorge Neto; Cristina Carlos; Carlos Peixoto; Ana Miranda. 2019. "Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices." International Journal of Climatology 39, no. 15: 5741-5760.

Journal article
Published: 29 April 2019 in Atmosphere
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The comprehensive characterization of heat waves and extreme hot days is fundamental for policymakers due to its vast implications for human health. This study evaluates extreme temperature changes over the Iberian Peninsula for the present climate and future projections, considering extreme temperature indices, cold/heat waves, and a recovery factor, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The projected temperatures show an increase of over 6 °C. An increase in the number of summer days and tropical nights and a decrease in frost days is expected. The number of heat waves and their duration and intensity are expected to increase. The number of heat wave days are expected to increase, with much of the average summer season being under heat wave conditions. The recovery factor is expected to decrease. Cold spells are projected to decrease in terms of number, intensity, duration, and number of spell days, whereas the recovery factor is expected to increase. Heat wave analysis was combined with maximum temperature thresholds to isolate extreme heat waves. The results show an increase in extreme heat wave days, with regions experiencing over 10 heat wave days with maximum temperature surpassing 45 °C for the long-term future.

ACS Style

Carolina Viceto; Susana Cardoso Pereira; Alfredo Rocha. Climate Change Projections of Extreme Temperatures for the Iberian Peninsula. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 229 .

AMA Style

Carolina Viceto, Susana Cardoso Pereira, Alfredo Rocha. Climate Change Projections of Extreme Temperatures for the Iberian Peninsula. Atmosphere. 2019; 10 (5):229.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Carolina Viceto; Susana Cardoso Pereira; Alfredo Rocha. 2019. "Climate Change Projections of Extreme Temperatures for the Iberian Peninsula." Atmosphere 10, no. 5: 229.

Journal article
Published: 05 April 2019 in Urban Climate
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This work presents a sensitivity study to evaluate different Urban Canopy Models (UCM) existing within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in the urban area of Lisbon, Portugal. Several hind-cast simulations were carried out for a selected period in July 2010, in which synoptic conditions favoured urban heat island formation. We aim to gain knowledge on the feedback of modified urban canopy representation in WRF on local scale meteorology and the boundary-layer dynamics over the urban area, by comparing a single layer urban canopy model (SLUCM) and a more sophisticated multi-layer building effect parametrisation (BEP). We find significant differences in the characteristics of the urban boundary layer between BEP and SLUCM, manifested through changes in turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and urban boundary layer (UBL) height over the urban centre. Compared to ground observations and radiosonde data retrieved within the core urban area, both variables are better represented by BEP compared to SLUCM. Simulating perturbations of vertical wind components and temperature we can show a general amplification and displacement of modelled gravity waves over the central urban area under the prevailing synoptic conditions when a multi-layer canopy model is used instead of a single-layer model or a bulk approach.

ACS Style

J.C. Teixeira; J. Fallmann; A.C. Carvalho; A. Rocha. Surface to boundary layer coupling in the urban area of Lisbon comparing different urban canopy models in WRF. Urban Climate 2019, 28, 100454 .

AMA Style

J.C. Teixeira, J. Fallmann, A.C. Carvalho, A. Rocha. Surface to boundary layer coupling in the urban area of Lisbon comparing different urban canopy models in WRF. Urban Climate. 2019; 28 ():100454.

Chicago/Turabian Style

J.C. Teixeira; J. Fallmann; A.C. Carvalho; A. Rocha. 2019. "Surface to boundary layer coupling in the urban area of Lisbon comparing different urban canopy models in WRF." Urban Climate 28, no. : 100454.

Journal article
Published: 29 March 2019 in Environmental Health
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There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of extreme temperatures on mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system. This is further relevant for future climate scenarios where marked changes in climate are expected. This paper presents a solid method do identify the relationship between extreme temperatures and mortality risk by using as predictors simulated temperature data for cold and hot conditions in two urban areas in Portugal. Based on the mortality and meteorological data from Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA) and Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA), a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was implemented to estimate the temperature effects on mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system. The performance of the models was validated via bootstrapping approaching by creating resamples with replacement from the validating data. Bootstrapping was also used to identify the best candidate model and to evaluate the sensitivity of the spline functions to the exposure-lag-response relationship. It is found that the model is able to reproduce the temperature-related mortality risk for two metropolitan areas. Temperature previously simulated by climate models is useful and even better than observed temperature. Although, the biases in predictions in both metropolitan areas are low, mortality risk predictions in PMA are more accurate than in LMA. Using parametric bootstrapping, we found that the overall cumulative association estimated under different bi-dimensional exposure-lag-response relationship are relatively stable, especially for the model selected by Quasi-Akaike Information Criteria (QAIC). Exposure to summer temperature conditions is best related to mortality risk. The association between winter temperature and mortality risk is somewhat less strong. The use of QAIC to choose from several candidate models provides valid predictions and reduced the uncertainty in the estimated relative risk for circulatory disease mortality. Our findings can be applied to better understand the characteristics and facilitate the prevention of circulatory disease mortality in Porto and Lisbon Metropolitan Areas, namely if we consider the actual context of climate change.

ACS Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues; Paula Santana; Alfredo Rocha. Bootstrap approach to validate the performance of models for predicting mortality risk temperature in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas. Environmental Health 2019, 18, 1 -16.

AMA Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues, Paula Santana, Alfredo Rocha. Bootstrap approach to validate the performance of models for predicting mortality risk temperature in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas. Environmental Health. 2019; 18 (1):1-16.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues; Paula Santana; Alfredo Rocha. 2019. "Bootstrap approach to validate the performance of models for predicting mortality risk temperature in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas." Environmental Health 18, no. 1: 1-16.

Original paper
Published: 23 February 2019 in International Journal of Biometeorology
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Cerebrovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality in Portugal, especially when related with extreme temperatures. This study highlights the impacts of the exposure-response relationship or lagged effect of low and high temperatures on cerebrovascular mortality, which can be important to reduce the health burden from cerebrovascular diseases. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of weather on cerebrovascular mortality, measured by ambient temperature in the District of Lisbon, Portugal. A quasi-Poisson generalized additive model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was applied to estimate the delayed effects of temperature on cerebrovascular mortality up to 30 days. With reference to minimum mortality temperature threshold of 22 °C, there was a severe risk (RR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.74, 2.51) of mortality for a 30-day-cumulative exposure to extreme cold temperatures of 7.3 °C (1st percentile). Similarly, the cumulative effect of a 30-day exposure to an extreme hot temperature of 30 °C (99th percentile) was 52% (RR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.37, 1.98) higher than same-day exposure. Over the 13 years of study, non-linear effects of temperature on mortality were identified, and the probability of dying from cerebrovascular disease in Lisbon was 7% higher in the winter than in the summer. The findings of this study provide a baseline for future public health prevention programs on weather-related mortality.

ACS Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues; Paula Santana; Alfredo Rocha. Effects of extreme temperatures on cerebrovascular mortality in Lisbon: a distributed lag non-linear model. International Journal of Biometeorology 2019, 63, 549 -559.

AMA Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues, Paula Santana, Alfredo Rocha. Effects of extreme temperatures on cerebrovascular mortality in Lisbon: a distributed lag non-linear model. International Journal of Biometeorology. 2019; 63 (4):549-559.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ana Paula Santana Rodrigues; Paula Santana; Alfredo Rocha. 2019. "Effects of extreme temperatures on cerebrovascular mortality in Lisbon: a distributed lag non-linear model." International Journal of Biometeorology 63, no. 4: 549-559.

Conference paper
Published: 19 February 2019 in BIO Web of Conferences
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In this work, bioclimatic parameters and indices relevant to the grapevine are estimated for the years 2000 (recent-pat), 2049 (medium-term future) and 2097 (long-term future), based on very high resolution (1 km × 1 km) MPI-WRF RCP8.5 climate simulations. The selected parameters and indices are the mean temperature during the grapevine growing season period (April to October, Tgs), the cumulative rainfall during the grapevine growing season period (Pgs), the Winkler index (WI), the Huglin heliothermic index (HI), the night cold index (CI) and the dryness index (DI). In general, a significant increase in mean temperature during the grapevine growing season period is observed, together with a significant decrease in precipitation. The recent-past WI is associated with the production of high-quality wines; the higher values predicted for the future represent intensive production of wines of intermediate quality. The HI shows the passage of a grapevine growing region considered as temperate-warm to a warm category of higher helio-thermicity. The recent-past CI indicates very cool conditions (associated with quality wines), while in the future there is a tendency for temperate or warmer nights. Finally, DI indicates an increase in water stress considered already high under the recent-past climate conditions. These results point to an increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties, providing evidence to support strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.

ACS Style

D. Blanco-Ward; A. Ribeiro; D. Barreales; J. Castro; J. Verdial; M. Feliciano; C. Viceto; Alfredo Rocha; C. Carlos; C. Silveira; And A. Miranda. Climate change potential effects on grapevine bioclimatic indices: A case study for the Portuguese demarcated Douro Region (Portugal). BIO Web of Conferences 2019, 12, 01013 .

AMA Style

D. Blanco-Ward, A. Ribeiro, D. Barreales, J. Castro, J. Verdial, M. Feliciano, C. Viceto, Alfredo Rocha, C. Carlos, C. Silveira, And A. Miranda. Climate change potential effects on grapevine bioclimatic indices: A case study for the Portuguese demarcated Douro Region (Portugal). BIO Web of Conferences. 2019; 12 ():01013.

Chicago/Turabian Style

D. Blanco-Ward; A. Ribeiro; D. Barreales; J. Castro; J. Verdial; M. Feliciano; C. Viceto; Alfredo Rocha; C. Carlos; C. Silveira; And A. Miranda. 2019. "Climate change potential effects on grapevine bioclimatic indices: A case study for the Portuguese demarcated Douro Region (Portugal)." BIO Web of Conferences 12, no. : 01013.

Journal article
Published: 31 August 2018 in Climate
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The thermal environment is an important aspect of the urban environment because it affects the quality of life of urban residents and the energy use in buildings. Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Urban Cold Island (UCI) are complementary effects that are the consequence of cities’ structures interference with the local climate. This article presents results from five years of urban climate monitoring (2012–2016) in a small Portuguese city (Bragança) using a dense meteorological network of 23 locations covering a wide array of Local Climate Zones (LCZ), from urban areas to nearby rural areas. Results show the presence of both the UHI effect, from mid-afternoon until sunrise, and the UCI after sunrise, both being more intense under the dense midrise urban context and during the summer. Urban Green Spaces had an impact on both UHI and UCI, with an important role in cooling areas of the city during daytime in the summer. Other LCZs had less impact on local thermal conditions. Despite the small size of this city, both effects (UHI and UCI) had a relevant intensity with an impact on local climate conditions. Both effects tend to decrease in intensity with increasing wind speed and precipitation.

ACS Style

Artur Gonçalves; Gabriella Ornellas; António Castro Ribeiro; Filipe Maia; Alfredo Rocha; Manuel Feliciano. Urban Cold and Heat Island in the City of Bragança (Portugal). Climate 2018, 6, 70 .

AMA Style

Artur Gonçalves, Gabriella Ornellas, António Castro Ribeiro, Filipe Maia, Alfredo Rocha, Manuel Feliciano. Urban Cold and Heat Island in the City of Bragança (Portugal). Climate. 2018; 6 (3):70.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Artur Gonçalves; Gabriella Ornellas; António Castro Ribeiro; Filipe Maia; Alfredo Rocha; Manuel Feliciano. 2018. "Urban Cold and Heat Island in the City of Bragança (Portugal)." Climate 6, no. 3: 70.