This study compares two methods for evaluating precipitation effects on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) yield, which have been cultivated for 30 years under two different climate conditions (semi-arid and Mediterranean). The distribution and amount of precipitation were indexed and their relationship with the corresponding crop yields (1984–2013) was investigated. The concentration index (CI), i.e. the contribution of the days of greatest precipitation to the total amount of precipitation, was also calculated as an alternative approach. Both methods were used to analyze the whole crop growing season, from planting to harvest, and for two critical growth stages, germination and anthesis. It was observed that there was a significant correlation between yield and the average daily precipitation (ER; rwheat=0.74** and rbarley = 0.75**) during the whole growing season, irrespective of the crop type, whereas there was no significant impact on crop yield due to the non-uniformity of precipitation distribution (UR). However, when a critical stage like anthesis was evaluated over a shorter period, a significant correlation between UR and crop yields (rwheat=0.56** and rbarley=0.64**) was found. The results indicated that these indexes are very effective for predicting crop yields based on their association with final yield within critical growth stages. In addition, it was also found that a proposed model using both indexes (ER and UR), with high correlation (r = 0.84**) can be very effective in estimating crops performance. The results also showed that the sensitivity of crop yield to the uniformity of precipitation during the critical growth stages was lower than when the whole growing season was considered. The CI index was less effective in reflecting the distribution of precipitation in the semi-arid and Mediterranean conditions compared with the UR.
Concerns about the negative effects of declining agricultural biodiversity due to modern agricultural practices and climatic constraints in various parts of the world, including Iran, on the sustainability of agricultural ecosystems are increasingly growing. However, the historical knowledge of temporal and spatial biodiversity is lacking. To determine the value and trend of crop diversity in Iran, we used biodiversity indices based on the area under rainfed and irrigated crops and total cropland area from 1991 to 2018. There were large fluctuations in the amount of cultivated area in the past 30 years, peaking around 2005 to 2007 with about 13.1 million cultivated hectares. However, no general trend in increase or decrease of total cultivated land was shown. The crop species diversity of irrigated cropland was higher than the rainfed and total cropland. The Shannon diversity index showed a constant trend with a negligible slope, but species richness was increased, which was related to the rise in the area of some crop species in recent years. The area of wheat and barley had a significant impact on crop diversity, so Shannon diversity index reduced with their dominance. Overall, this study revealed that the Iranian agricultural system relies on wheat and barley. We warn that by increasing the area of these crops and the prevalence of monoculture, the probability of damage from external factors such as sudden weather changes or the spread of diseases will increase, leading to instability and production risks in the future.