As a novel mode of urban air mobility (UAM), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) pose a great amount of risk to ground people. Assessing ground risk and mitigation effects correctly is a focused issue. This paper proposes a grid-based risk matrix framework for assessing the ground risk associated with two types of UAVs, namely fixed-wing and quadrotor. The framework has a three-stage structure of “intrinsic risk assessment—mitigation effect—final map generation”. First, the intrinsic risk to ground populations caused by potential UAV crashes is quantified. Second, the mitigation effects are measured by establishing a mathematical model with a focus on the ground sheltering and parachute systems. Finally, a modular approach is presented for generating a ground risk map of UAVs, aiming to effectively characterize the effects of each influencing factor on the failure process of UAVs. The framework facilitates the modular analysis and quantification of the impact of diverse risk factors on UAV ground risk. It also provides a new perspective for analyzing ground risk mitigation measures, such as ground sheltering and UAV parachute systems. A case study experiment on a realistic urban environment in Shenzhen shows that the risk map generated by the presented framework can accurately characterize the distribution of ground risk posed by various UAVs.

In this paper, a methodology to assess ground risk with multi-uncertainties is introduced, which is associated with a major unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in-flight incident. In the assessment model, random factors are taken into account including uncertainty in the drag force, uncertainty in the UAV velocity, and the random effects of local wind. The probability distribution of impact positions is first estimated by using a second-order drag model with probabilistic assumptions regarding the least well-known parameters. Then, an approach for modeling and estimating the ground risks is presented, in which the ground casualties are set as the safety index. In the multifactor risk estimation model, ground casualty areas covered by the UAVs’ debris are determined. Correspondingly, the probability of fatal injuries to people is derived by addressing the protection effects, impact energy, and energy threshold a person can sustain. Further, four kinds of sheltering effects are defined. Finally, the affected area on the ground is partitioned into six zones, taking into consideration the density and distribution of the local population. Case studies are conducted for fixed-wing and rotary-wing UAVs. Risk levels on the ground are obtained and compared with the widely accepted target safety level of manned aircrafts.

The journal retracts the article, “Ground Risk Estimation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Based on Probability Approximation for Impact Positions with Multi-Uncertainties”